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Wall Street Breakfast's Pre-Market Snapshot
Fed's Hoenig Says Target Rate Could Still Go Either Way
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig, a voting member of the FOMC, said on Tuesday at an economic forum that future policy moves could still go either way, depending on how growth and inflation activity play out: "Our policy rate is 5.25 percent. In my judgment, that's modestly firm, allowing the economy to move forward and expand. The outlook is generally positive with recognized risks on both sides." Hoenig said saying he felt the economy will firm, despite the difficulties of the past year -- predicting GDP growth climbing back over 2% in 2007 and higher in 2008. At the same time, he said, the current period of slow growth should bring inflation down. Housing, automobile and software investment have slowed, he said, but global demand for U.S. goods is on the rise, partly as a result of a weak U.S. dollar, as is government spending. Over the longer term, he said, growth will be impacted by factors including retiring baby boomers, growth of the labor force, immigration and education. Hoenig said that a decision on adopting formal inflation targets was "still a ways off." Separately, White House economic adviser Edward Lazear said Wednesday the economy could still hit the White House's economic forecast of 2.7% GDP growth this year, despite weak Q1 growth. He said fundamentals were good, and the current account deficit has been a source of economic strength.
Sources: AP, Reuters I, II
Commentary: A One-In-Three Chance Alan Greenspan Makes Sense • Three Reasons I'm Bearish On This Market • What is the Labor Market Telling Us?
Stocks/ETFs to watch: S&P 500 Index (SPY), Diamonds Trust Series 1 ETF (DIA), iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Related: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City website, Biography of President Thomas M. Hoenig
Median House Prices and Homebuilder Confidence Decline
Tuesday's housing news indicates a continued decline. With 147,708 households in some state of foreclosure in April, a 62% jump from April 2006, and resultant tighter lending standards at almost half the U.S. banks, median house and condominium prices in Q1'07 fell 1.8% to $212,300, a 2-year low. Single family home prices fell in 62 of 145 cities. Sales rose 2.4% from 6.2 million units to 6.41 million in Q4'06, down 6.6% from Q1'06. The National Association of Realtors says prices are stabilizing and projects a late 2007 recovery, but the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo index returned to September's 15-year low, declining to 30 from 33 in April and showing borrowing difficulties and order cancellations were taking its toll on homebuilder confidence. Economists had predicted a static 33 index reading-- down from last May's 46—but all three index components declined, in three out of four U.S. regions: Single family homes slid from 33 to 31, expectations for the coming half year in sales fell from 44 to 41, and prospective buyer traffic outlook sank from 27 to 23. The Northeast declined the most, from 38 to 32, while the Midwest rose from 22 to 23. The only silver lining: The consumer price index rose 0.2% as expected. Economists point to falling rental costs as the most significant contributor to a possibly stabilizing CPI.
Sources: NAHB Press Release, MarketWatch I, II, III, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN Money
Commentary: Banks Face Growing Pressure on Home Prices • Sub-Prime Woes Not Spilling Over To Over Other Credit Areas • Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Toll Brothers (TOL), Pulte Homes (PHM), Centex (CTX), Beazer Homes (BZH), KB Homes (KBH), Lennar (LEN), Ryland (RYL). ETFs: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction (ITB), SPDR Homebuilders (XHB), PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction (PKB)
Conference call transcripts: Toll Brothers F2Q07, The Home Depot F1Q07
TECHNOLOGY
New York Attorney General Hits Dell With Consumer Advocacy Suit
New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has filed suit against #2 computer maker Dell for what it alleges are repeated failures to honor warranties, service contracts and rebates, as well as misleading claims provided by Dell Financial Services LP, Dell's computer loan unit.
The suit, obtained by Bloomberg, criticizes Dell's 'no interest' loans ad campaign; the company denies such loans to 85% of applicants, sticking them with interest rates that top 16% instead. The suit also alleges customers needing service are subjected to a "telephonic version of hot potato" after enduring long wait times for technical support. The suit goes on to say, "customers are disconnected before they reach the elusive representative who presumably is able or willing to help them." Dell counters it has invested $150 million into improving its customer service, knocking the average wait time down to three minutes from nine. Dell spokesman Bob Pearson responded to the latest charges by saying, "the allegations in the AG's filing are based upon a small fraction of Dell's consumer transactions in New York. We are confident that our practices will be found to be fair and appropriate." The current legal trouble comes on top of an ongoing investigation by the SEC into Dell's accounting practices. The company has not reported full earnings in several quarters, a result of the investigation.
Sources: Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, AP
Commentary: The Web's Democratizing Effect: Chinese Bloggers Stick It to Dell • Dell: Beware of Anything 2.0 •What Do Dell and Ex-Planet Pluto Have in Common?
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Dell Inc. (DELL). Competitors: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), Gateway (GTW), Apple (AAPL). ETFs: Internet Architecture HOLDRS (IAH), PowerShares Dyn. Hdwr. & Cons. Elect. (PHW), Vanguard Information Technology (VGT)
Related: Dell Customer Support
Motorola Unveils RAZR 2, Mobile Phone Collection for '07
Motorola introduced five new phones for its 2007 collection, four of which were updates of prior year's models, including the next-generation RAZR -- RAZR 2. Analysts seemed mostly unimpressed with the new product lineup. An analyst at Prudential commented, "People went in there thinking that maybe there would be a game-changing new device.
What we got was a new Razr. Maybe it buys them some time before they really have to come up with something really differentiated." The RAZR is Motorola's all-time best-selling phone with 98 million unit sold. The RAZR is "not a product, it's a brand," said CEO Ed Zander. Other new mobile devices include the MOTO Z8 (dubbed "media monster"), MOTO Q8 and Q9 (smart phones) and ROKR Z6 (music phone). Separately, Motorola and Napster have entered an agreement to offer Napster's music subscription service to certain Motorola phones, set to begin in the second half of '07 in the U.S. and Europe. Shares of Motorola lost 1.3% to $17.92 in normal trading Tuesday, but rose 0.45% to $18.00 in the after-hours.
Sources: Press release, Bloomberg
Commentary: Can Motorola's RAZR2 Edge Out Apple's iPhone? • Motorola: Investors Want Cool New Handsets • Nokia Hits Multi-Year High on Forecast of Market Share Gains, Motorola Dips
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Motorola, Inc. (MOT). Competitors: Nokia Corp. (NOK), Sony Corp. (SNE), LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERIC), Samsung [not traded in the U.S., but an 18% component of iShares MSCI S. Korea (EWY)], Palm Inc. (PALM), Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM). ETFs: Broadband HOLDRs (BDH), Wireless HOLDRs (WMH), Vanguard Info. Tech. (VGT)
Conference call transcripts: Motorola Q1 2007
Related: CNET images of Motorola's new phones
Oracle to Acquire Agile Software for $495M, 14% Premium
Oracle announced Tuesday it has agreed to acquire Agile Software, a product lifecycle management [PLM] software solutions provider, for $495 million in cash, or $8.10/share. This represents a 14% premium to Agile's close of $7.08 on Tuesday. "The addition of Agile, which will serve as the foundation of our PLM offering, will further Oracle's strategy of delivering industry-specific enterprise applications and allows us to offer yet another strategic application to SAP customers," said Oracle President Charles Phillips. MarketWatch reports a Bank of America analyst recommended Oracle to clients earlier in the day based on its M&A activity, saying, "We expect this strategy should continue to benefit the company in terms of winning further wallet share from smaller competitors, and should also yield results in terms of broadening the company's customer base in specialized niche markets." Shares of Oracle lost 0.5% to $18.84 during normal trading, but edged up 0.2% to $18.88 in the after-hours. Agile last traded up nearly 13% to $7.98 in extended trading.
Sources:![]()
Press release, MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal
Commentary: Oracle Rewrites Its Middleware • Oracle: Looking Toward Stronger SaaS Revenue Flow • SAP Buys OutlookSoft in Oracle Counter-Tack
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Oracle (ORCL), Agile Software (AGIL). Competitors: SAP (SAP), IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT). ETFs: iShares Goldman Sachs Software Index Fund (IGV), Software HOLDRS Trust ETF (SWH), PowerShares Dynamic Software (PSJ), B2B Internet HOLDRs (BHH)
Conference call transcripts: Oracle F3Q07
Applied Materials Beats Street, but Shares Drop on Orders Guidance
Applied Materials surpassed analyst expectations on Q2 EPS Tuesday, but the company's shares fell 4.2% in AH trading to $18.95 on guidance that orders will decline.
Q2 net income dipped to $411.4 million from $412.8 million a year ago, but EPS, helped by a lower share count, rose to $0.29 from $0.26. Excluding items (but including stock-compensation expenses), the company posted EPS of $0.34, ahead of analyst expectations of $0.28. Quarterly revenue rose 13% to $2.53 billion from $2.25 billion, again beating Street expectations of $2.36 billion. Gross margin fell to 44.9% from 46.5% a year ago. Q2 new orders came in at $2.65 billion, a 6% rise from $2.49 billion in the year-ago quarter. The company is forecasting Q3 EPS of $0.30-0.32, in line with analyst estimates of $0.30. It also expects a 10-15% sequential drop in orders on lower capital spending in several business segments, including contract chip manufacturers and makers of flat-panel displays.
Sources: Applied Materials F2Q07 Earnings Call Transcript, TheStreet.com, Reuters, 24/7 Wall Street
Commentary: Applied Materials: Stock Gaining Ground Ahead Of Earnings Tuesday • Applied Materials, MEMC Electronics Solar Push May Not Be As Profitable As Investors Believe • Solar Equipment: The Bull Case for Applied Materials
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT). Competitors: KLA-Tencor (KLAC), LAM Research (LRCX), Novellus Systems (NVLS). ETFs: Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH), iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor (IGW), PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors (PSI), PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW)
INTERNET
AOL Buys Third Screen Media, Gains 'Very Strong Position In Mobile Advertising'
Time Warner Inc.'s AOL Internet division announced Tuesday it had bought mobile advertising company Third Screen Media for an undisclosed sum. Third Screen Media produces ad-serving technology for mobile text messaging, video and phone-screen formatted pages, as well as in mobile download formats. The Boston-based company also connects advertisers, publishers and mobile phone carriers on a common platform, allowing for easy ad delivery via WAP, SMS, MMS and mobile video. Dozens of leading brand advertisers, more than a hundred mobile Web publishers, and major wireless carriers are members of Third Screen Media's mobile advertising network. According to AOL Chairman and CEO Randy Falco, "the acquisition of Third Screen Media gives us a very strong position in the fast-growing mobile space. It also lets us offer advertisers a more complete set of solutions, from display advertising to search and now a superior set of mobile solutions." Mobile advertising is seen as a high growth area that has not yet reached its full potential; AOL believes U.S. mobile advertising will grow from $421 million in 2006 to $4.7 billion by 2011.
Sources: Press Release, Reuters, Boston Globe, Searchengineland.com, Motley Fool
Commentary: Time Warner's Digital Media Strategy: Moving Into Ad Networks • AOL’s Advertising Is Alive And Kicking • ESPN To Be Exclusive Sports Content Provider For Verizon V Cast
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Time Warner (TWX). Competitors: Disney (DIS), CBS (CBS), Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T). ETFs: Internet HOLDRS (HHH), Wireless HOLDRS (WMH)
Conference call transcripts: Time Warner Q1 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
Related: Third Screen Media
MEDIA
Victory for TV Networks: DVR Playbacks to Be Included in Ad Metrics
Industry insiders say TV advertisers have largely agreed to include playbacks from digital recorders into ratings metrics, marking a stark reversal from last spring when ad buyers refused to be charged for playbacks -- which allow viewers to skip commercials. Called live-plus-three, the new metric will account for program viewings and its commercials within three days of original air-time. Including DVR playbacks should help TV networks as they struggle to compete with the flow of ad dollars to the internet. MediaCom analyst Jordan Breslow estimates 40-60% of viewers using DVRs still watch commercials. At a huge ad-buying event this week known as "upfront," insiders say advertisers will be pressing networks to provide detailed information such as what percentage of viewers watch shows on a delayed basis, how they're watching (HDTV, regular, or web-TV), and how many people skip commercials. Until now, ad buying has been almost universally based on Nielsen ratings, which measure only whether a TV is tuned to a specific program.
Sources: TheStreet.com, Wall Street Journal
Commentary: AOL 'First Look' Shows Upcoming Programs To Advertisers Before the Networks • CBS' Video Distribution Deals: Give Quincy Smith A Hand • News Corp: How to Capitalize on American Idol Ratings
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Time Warner Inc. (TWX), General Electric Co. (GE) [owner of NBC], Walt Disney Company (DIS), CBS Corp. (CBS), News Corp. (NWS), Viacom Inc. (VIA). ETFs: PowerShares Dynamic Media Portfolio ETF (PBS), PowerShares Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment (PEJ)
Sprint Nextel Inks Programming Deal with Disney-ABC
Wireless company Sprint Nextel and Disney-ABC Television Group have reached a deal to provide ABC and Disney television programs on Sprint cellphones. Consumers will be able to watch shows from ABC Entertainment, ABC News and the Disney Channel either on demand or via the company's three "linear" cellphone channels, which continuously stream content. Shows will include Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy. Video-on-demand programs will be available the day after they appear on TV, and viewers will be able to see the four most recently broadcast episodes of each available series. The full range of content will be available as part of the Sprint Power Vision TV Pack, which costs $20 a month. The Disney Channel will also be available separately in the Power Vision Access Pack for $15 a month. In the autumn, some of the content will carry advertisements, which are expected to lower the cost of the service.
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Sprint, the market leader in data services, already provides over 50 video and audio channels on its phones. Mobile TV and music downloads added $1.2 billion to Sprint's revenue in Q1 2007, up 44% from 2006.
Sources: Press release, MarketWatch, Kansas City Business Journal, Motley Fool
Commentary: Disney Flicks Doing Very Well On iTunes • Bill Nygren on the Long Case for Sprint-Nextel • Disney: Iger’s Arrowheads Now Pointing Right
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), The Walt Disney Company (DIS). Competitors: Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T), Qwest Communications (Q), Time Warner Inc. (TWX). ETFs: Telecom HOLDRs (TTH), Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)
Conference call transcripts: Sprint Nextel Q1 2007, Walt Disney F2Q07
RETAIL
Limited Brands to Sell Express Unit and Explore Options for Namesake Stores; Shares Plummet on Lowered Guidance
Limited Brands, owner of Victoria's Secret and Bath and Body Works, announced Tuesday it will sell 67% of its Express unit and put its namesake women's clothing chain on the market. It also slashed its quarterly and full-year profit forecasts on weak sales and low margins. The company's shares fell up to 7% before closing down 4.5% at $26.18.
The majority stake in Express will be bought by private equity firm Golden Gate Capital for $548 million. After-tax proceeds are projected at an estimated $425 million. Limited Brands cut its Q1 EPS forecast to $0.12-0.14 from $0.25-0.28, primarily because of markdowns at lingerie chain Victoria's Secret. Analysts had forecast EPS of $0.22. The company has lowered its Q2 EPS forecast to $0.20-0.24 from $0.28 a year ago, excluding the Express sale. Analysts were expecting $0.29. Limited is also lowering its full-year 2007 EPS forecast to $1.55-1.65 from $1.75-1.90; the Street had forecast $1.78. In January, Limited bought Canadian lingerie retailer La Senza Corp. for $628 million. The company plans to expand the size of its Victoria's Secret stores by 50% over the next five years. Limited will report Q1 earnings on May 23.
Sources: Press release, Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com, MarketWatch
Commentary: April Same-Store Sales Roundup • Unlimited Selling at Limited Brands
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Limited Brands, Inc. (LTD). Competitors: Gap Inc. (GPS), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEOS), J. Crew Group, Inc. (JCG). ETFs: Retail HOLDRS ETF (RTH), SPDR S&P Retail (XRT), PowerShares Dynamic Retail (PMR)
Conference call transcripts: Q4 2006
FINANCIAL
Tyco to Pay $2.98 Billion to Settle Fraud Lawsuits
Bermuda conglomerate Tyco International has agreed to pay $2.98 billion to settle investor lawsuits over accounting fraud, the largest corporate payout ever in this kind of litigation.
Tyco will take a charge this quarter for the full amount and will now proceed to break itself up. The suits accused the company of inflating its income by $5.8 billion under the aegis of former CEO L. Dennis Kozlowski, who is now serving a jail sentence for grand larceny, falsification of business records and conspiracy. He and former CFO Mark Swartz are serving up to 25 years for absconding with over $150 million in unauthorized bonuses and defrauding shareholders of millions more by manipulating the company's earnings. "With this settlement we are taking an important step to resolve our most significant remaining legacy legal matter," said CEO Edward D. Breen. In April, Tyco agreed to pay $50 million to settle SEC accounting claims. The company plans to separate its health-care unit into a standalone publicly traded company called Covidien and its electronics unit into a public company called Tyco Electronics. The breakup is scheduled to be completed by June 30.
Sources: New York Times, Bloomberg, MarketWatch
Commentary: Tyco Misses on Breakup Charges • No Accounting Fraud at Tyco? I Beg To Differ • Pre-Spinoff Tyco Is A Buy
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Tyco International Ltd. (TYC). Competitors: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Molex Inc. (MOLX), United Technologies Corp. (UTX). ETFs: PowerShares FTSE RAFI Industrials (PRFN), Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS), iShares S&P Global Industrials (EXI)
Berkshire Hathaway Boosts J&J, Sanofi Positions; Builds Stakes in Three Railroads
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway nearly doubled its position in Johnson & Johnson and boosted its holdings of Sanofi-Aventis ADRs by 70% in Q1, a regulatory filing showed Tuesday.
The company's quarterly holdings report filed with the SEC also shows it sold over two-thirds of its stake in H&R Block and half its stake in Ameriprise Financial. Berkshire purchased 24.1 million shares of J&J, bringing its holding to 48.7 million shares, and raised its stake in Sanofi to 828,500 shares. The filing also indicated the company is holding 979,700 shares of U.S. health insurer Wellpoint. Berkshire's position in H&R Block was reduced to 1.25 million shares from 4.11 million and in Ameriprise to 4.28 million from 8.27 million. Buffett has also upped Berkshire's position in Wells Fargo & Co. by 14% to 232.2 million shares. Additional filings indicate Berkshire has been establishing positions in three of the four largest U.S. railroads since Q3 2006.
Sources: SEC 13F-HR Filing, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Reuters
Commentary: Dow Components Furthest Above, Below Their 50-DMAs • Goldman Bullish On Johnson & Johnson Following Earnings • Vanguard Health Care Fund's Edward Owens: Buys, Sells, Portfolio
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP), H&R Block, Inc. (HRB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI). ETFs: SPDR DJ Wilshire Large Cap Growth (ELG), PowerShares FTSE RAFI Financials (PRFF), iShares Dow Jones US Pharmaceuticals (IHE), iShares Dow Jones US Broker-Dealers (IAI), KBW Bank ETF (KBE), iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT)
HEALTHCARE/BIOTECH
ImClone Shares Tumble on Rumors of Cancer Drug Shortfall
Shares of ImClone Systems fell 6% on Tuesday on rumors results from a clinical trial of its only drug -- colon cancer treatment Erbitux -- would fall short of expectations. Analysts expect data on the drug at the American Society of Clinical Oncology [ASCO] meeting next month. HSBC analyst Gene Mack said he had heard the speculation, but was unable to substantiate it. StreetAccount said Tuesday in a client alert: "[ImClone] shares are being pressured by speculation regarding ASCO abstracts from the Crystal trial, which revealed less than expected survival benefit in the Erbitux arm of
the trial." The company said it was however unable to confirm the source nor the validity of the information. In January, initial trial data showed that Erbitux combined with chemotherapy increased survival over chemotherapy alone. Shares, up almost 55% YTD, fell $2.64 (6%) to close at $41.33.
Sources: Reuters
Commentary: ImClone's Erbitux Fails Pancreatic Cancer Study • Icahn Hopes to 'Get Lucky Again' with ImClone • Will Biotechs Pay the Price for Playing in the Big Leagues?
Stocks/ETFs to watch: ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL)
Amgen Shares Sink on Proposed Medicare Cuts
Amgen shares were off 6.6% Tuesday to a two-and-a-half year low after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed limiting payments for Amgen's and Johnson & Johnson's anti-anemia medications on safety concerns. Amgen was downgraded by Robert Baird analyst Christopher Raymond and Banc of America Securities analyst William Sargent after Medicare issued its proposal. "[W]e see this development as a watershed event, possibly opening the door to significant downstream private-payer pressure for years to come," Raymond wrote in his note. Anemia drugs Aranesp and Epogen represented 48% of Amgen's profits last year; J&J licenses Epogen from Amgen and sells it under the name Procrit. J&J's shares fell 1.3% to close at $61.82. Amgen's shares have lost over 15% of their value since last Thursday,
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when an FDA advisory panel recommended that more limits be placed on the anti-anemia drugs and further safety testing be implemented.
Sources: MarketWatch, Reuters
Commentary: Amgen Down Sharply On Medicare Proposal; Expecting a Bounce • Amgen Keeps Falling, I Keep Buying: Long Term Prospects Look Good • Amgen: Still a Bargain Despite Recent Selloff • FDA Panel Recommends Stronger Warning Labels, More Testing for Anemia Drugs
Stocks/ETFs to watch: Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Competitors: Roche Holding Ltd. [ADR] (RHHBY), Novartis AG (NVS), Baxter International Inc. (BAX). ETFs: Biotech HOLDRs (BBH), PowerShares Buyback Achievers (PKW), PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Growth (PWB)
Conference call transcripts: Q1 2007
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