Some Facts About Avian Flu (GILD, GLX)

Here are some sobering facts with regard to avian flu:

• The H5N1 avian flu first broke out in Hong Kong in 1997 infecting 18 people and killing 6.
• The avian flu re-emerged in South-East Asia in 2004 infecting 109 people and killing 55.
• First confirmed human to human transmission reported in Thailand.
• Virus detected in migratory geese in China and wild birds in Russia - and now in Turkey.
• Most recent pandemic was the 1968 "Hong Kong flu." Prior to that was the 1918 "Spanish flu" – 50 years between pandemics. The last pandemic occurred 37 years ago. Are we due for another in the near future?
• The annual incidence of the flu in the U.S. is about 15-20%.
• As a result, the avian flu could potentially kill over 25mm people in the U.S. alone! This far above current estimates but the facts speak for themselves: 290mm people in the U.S., 15% infection rate, and 50% avian flu mortality rate.
• Worldwide, a 5% infection rate could kill over 150mm people world-wide!
• A study recently published in Nature speculated that a single person infected in rural Thailand would result in the infection spreading across the globe within two months.
• There is no effective vaccine for the H5N1 strain; however, two anti-flu drugs, Tamiflu (Gilead, ticker: GILD) and Relenza (Glaxo Smith Kline, ticker: GSK) show the ability to treat and possibly prevent avian flu.

There is obviously a lot of speculation and hyperbole surrounding the prospects of many companies in treating avian flu, but the potential havoc this could inflict on the world and its economies is very real. Look what SARS did to the world economy. It is estimated that the SARS outbreak in 2002/03 cost $10 to $30 billion. Trade growth fell about 2.5%. The World Bank estimated growth in Asia fell almost 10% from 5.5% to 5.0%. There were less than 7,300 SARS cases reported world-wide. What do you think would happen to the world economy in the event of an avian flu pandemic? Utter chaos.

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Comments

[onewaystox:]

Historian John Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," said the disease "killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years." --from cnn.com

2005 Oct 17 10:21 PM

[skepticjr:]

Love how the media frenzy covering avian flu fails to address need to properly diagnose flu in general. Without proper diagnosis wrong folks most certainly will seek out antivirals, straining already limitied supplies. Use of rapid testing as encouraged by WHO (www.who.int/csr/diseas...) is certainly one way to maximize existing antiviral resources.

2005 Oct 23 02:06 PM