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D Fry Market Outlook 18 05 2007

The stock market is a little tired. Friday's option expiration is upon us, and could give us some strange action -- lately the affair has been business as usual.

The big news was Bernanke chatting about the subprime market problems being no big deal, and that things will work themselves out. Sort of like the stock market bubble worked itself out from 2000 to early 2003. Then the Fed cut rates to the max to alleviate the decline, but only replaced one bubble for another. But you know that. So the "Greenspan put" has been replaced by the "Bernanke put." But again, you know that.

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Other news includes talk of a higher dollar based on stronger economic data followed by "much" weaker gold relatively.

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The last tidbit of news came from the OPEC chief who said calmly that prices "weren't high" and there are ample supplies. No production increases means supplies stay tight. That got the shorts scrambling today. By the way, hurricane season starts in just two weeks... you knew that right?

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Most U.S. equity sectors took a breather. Options expiry tomorrow, and consumer sentiment numbers could shake things up one way or another. I'm keeping my eye on underperforming small-caps and tech. Without their participation it's really just a LBO and private equity game in large-caps... and you know that.

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I suspect we could have some fireworks tomorrow based on options expiry and consumer sentiment -- but you know... oh nevermind!

Have a great weekend!

Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:DBE), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM), and NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares ETF (QQQQ).

Source: David Fry's Market Outlook for Friday