Microsoft's aQuantive Buyout A Sign of Newfound Aggression

That Seattle-based aQuantive (AQNT) was in play was one of the worst-kept supposed secrets in recent dealmaking history. It had been talked about for most of the year, and Google's (GOOG) DoubleClick deal had sealed the likelihood.

What has surprised people, however, with Friday's Microsoft (MSFT) deal for aQuantive is the towering premium Microsoft was willing to pay for the company. A $6-billion deal and an 86% premium to Thursday's close is Murdoch-ian, the kind of "shut up and sing" (or at least shut up and sell ads) price that says let's stop talking and just get this over with.

But it's more than that too. It's also a sign of newfound aggression from Microsoft, an example of it saying that it can play the price premium game, locking out competitors like Google and Yahoo by playing bid-'em-up.

While that's long overdue from Microsoft, it's also perilous stuff. The winner's curse kicks in early in auctions among newly aggressive competitors in a market with dwindling targets, with about the only thing you know for sure when someone is waaay out in front of everyone else is that they almost certainly paid too much. After all, it wasn't as if Google/Yahoo et al., didn't know about aQuantive, and didn't know the company was in play, and that Microsoft was bidding. It's just that everyone else -- who are better than Microsoft in this business -- demurred on paying so much.

Some other quick factoids:

This is the biggest deal in Microsoft history

Seattle-based quasi-venture firm Second Avenue Partners is a stockholder, standing to make $290m on the deal

Microsoft has paid almost a 2x premium over DoubleClick, 24/7, and other recent deals in terms of $/monthly impression. (Note: This is not my table, and the author has some buyers/acquirers reversed, so a little reading dyslexia is required.)