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Part of the allure of dividend-paying stocks is that they pay back your initial investment directly. Ten years after the tech bubble, many tech stocks now offer attractive dividend payments. Has the tech sector become attractive to income investors who wish to be paid back without having to sell their shares in the secondary market?

Calculating Payback Periods

The number of years it takes for an investment to pay you back is called the payback period. It is a simple and crude measure of risk. Other investment metrics like required return do not always match up to the calculated payback period. This is because required return takes into account how dividend distributions in earlier years are worth more than the same dollar value paid out later in the future. (You would be able to reinvest the earlier distribution and earn a return on it, making it worth more.)

Payback period estimates depend on earnings growth and dividend payout ratios. Payout ratios were assumed constant, and dividend was projected by taking the minimum of the following:

  • Earnings growth over the past five years
  • Analyst estimates for earnings growth for the next five years
  • Return on equity times the earnings reinvestment rate

The minimum of these measures was then used to estimate dividend growth for the next three years.

Tech stocks were screened for dividend payback within two decades, dividend yields in excess of the 10-year treasury yield and payout ratios below 60%. The values of these inputs are provided below:

Ticker

Company

Div Yield

Payout Ratio

EPS growth past 5 years

EPS growth next 5 years

BRKS

Telecom Argentina S.A.

2.7%

4.1%

45.0%

18.0%

CA

DDI Corp.

3.7%

10.6%

42.6%

9.7%

CHL

Siemens AG

4.0%

43.1%

17.1%

2.4%

DDIC

Persero Indonesia Tbk.

4.9%

41.3%

66.8%

15.0%

INTC

STMicroelectronics NV

3.2%

31.4%

22.8%

10.6%

RCI

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

3.7%

48.5%

29.8%

9.3%

RIMG

CA Technologies

5.6%

41.8%

-6.2%

10.0%

SI

SK Telecom Co. Ltd.

4.0%

40.8%

24.2%

21.2%

SKM

TIM Participacoes S.A.

5.8%

48.8%

-4.8%

7.9%

STM

TELUS Corporation

5.9%

54.4%

-2.9%

21.1%

TEO

Rogers Communications Inc.

8.1%

37.4%

11.3%

10.1%

TLK

Rimage Corp.

5.0%

4.8%

8.5%

8.7%

TSM

Brooks Automation Inc.

3.7%

54.2%

17.4%

15.0%

TSU

China Mobile Limited

4.5%

18.0%

66.7%

4.0%

TU

Intel Corporation

4.2%

58.1%

12.3%

7.1%

Abnormal growth will not last forever, and analyst estimates, as informed as they are, are not predictive indefinitely. To address this limitation, a terminal 3% dividend growth rate was applied for every stock in the list after three years of projected growth rates. (Predicting economic growth many years out is impossible, and 3% seemed like a reasonable value.)

Many tech sector stocks have distribution rates, which are high enough that the sum of future dividends would equal your initial investment inside of two decades:

Ticker

Industry

P/E

P/B

ROE

Payback Period

BRKS

Diversified Communication Services

6.09

1.54

28.3%

19

CA

Printed Circuit Boards

14.68

2.24

16.1%

17

CHL

Telecom Services - Foreign

10.52

2.11

21.5%

19

DDIC

Telecom Services - Foreign

10.58

2.04

21.3%

13

INTC

Semiconductor - Broad Line

11.12

2.96

27.2%

19

RCI

Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

13.12

5.22

39.3%

18

RIMG

Application Software

17.25

0.9

5.4%

18

SI

Wireless Communications

10.35

1.97

19.7%

16

SKM

Wireless Communications

6.44

1.4

23.8%

17

STM

Wireless Communications

9.35

0.78

8.6%

16

TEO

Wireless Communications

6.95

2.37

38.0%

9

TLK

Data Storage Devices

11.98

2.85

24.8%

14

TSM

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

14.72

3.58

25.3%

17

TSU

Wireless Communications

8.37

1.91

28.0%

17

TU

Semiconductor - Broad Line

14.57

2.23

15.1%

17

Conclusion

Since many dividend investors are attracted to high-paying dividend companies on the premise that they can ignore what the markets do and simply focus on their dividend income, the payback period provides a reality-check for how long payback based on dividend payments could take.

If you want to ignore what prices your securities fetch in the markets, you could be waiting a long time to get paid back. Since all the dividend tech stocks except TEO would require more than a decade for payback, investors should rethink a singular focus on dividends before investing in the tech sector.


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This article was written to provide investor information and education, and should not be construed as investment advice. I have no idea what your individual risk, time-horizon, and tax circumstances are: please seek the personal advice of a financial planner. This article uses third-party data and may contain approximations and errors. Please check estimates and data for yourself before investing.

Source: Payback Periods From Tech Sector Dividends