Memorial Day Through Labor Day Outlook? That Depends On Today

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: Barring a very strong day today, we are left with two possible scenarios to close out the week; either down week, up Friday or down week, down Friday.

In the chart below, we have calculated the average performance for the S&P 500 during the years that meet both of the scenarios outlined above.

As you can see, based on prior examples, if the S&P 500 closes in positive territory today, we will be entering the Summer months with a setup that has typically been the most positive for stocks, with an average gain of 6.28% and only one down period out of nine. If the index closes down today, based on the 13 prior periods where its performance was negative in the week and day before Memorial Day, the average return over the Summer was -1.23%.

Comments

[S A:]

Looks like its off to the races then.

SA.

2007 May 25 05:52 PM

[VVV:]

I guess you missed that first day in stats class.

You know, the one where they wrote "Corrleation isn't causation" in ALL CAPS on the blackboard...

2007 May 27 02:35 PM