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For some time now, pundits have been anticipating a market correction. As the economy continues to slow at a controlled pace, the likelihood of a correction increases with each up tick in the indices. However, due to the controlled nature of economic cooling and high likelihood of a soft landing, such a correction is likely to be measured and followed by more gains. Historically, corrections of this nature -- pauses in long term bull markets -- generally last between two to four months. After this short period of decline, stocks will likely move higher as investors focus on the immense upside to globalization.

However, because of unprecedented levels of liquidity, a lack of business investment that has pushed profits to record levels, and because the market is a fickle beast, the expectations of bearish pundits have hitherto been disappointed. While expectations of a correction are justified, timing the top is difficult, so it is best to take an investment approach that can be successful whether the market experiences a correction or not. With this in mind, I have devised an investment strategy that accounts for the high likelihood of a correction while at the same time capitalizing on further upside opportunities in the markets.

I plan to take advantage of the market conditions outlined above as follows:

  • Invest conservatively, to the exclusion of stocks whose performance depends on the successful execution of a very aggressive growth strategy.
  • Invest primarily in stocks that are not dependent on the American market. Two of this sort in which I am currently considering investing are a Mexican homebuilder, Homex Development Corp. (HXM), and a copper miner, Taseko Mines (TGB).
  • Hedge against a market decline by buying puts on companies I believe to be extraordinarily overvalued. Two of these in which I'm currently considering investing are an advertising firm primarily in the print ad business, R. H. Donnelly (RHD) and an electric company, Reliant Energy (RRI).
  • Focus on rapidly growing industries and industries benefited by long term shifts in global economics. A few examples of rapidly growing industries are uranium miners, molybdenum miners, demand response electricity management companies, and many others. A couple industries that will reap the benefits of long term shifts in global economics over the next few years are crude oil producers, and industrial metals.
  • Finally, given the dire need to find a powerful alternative energy solution I'm always looking for viable energy alternatives. Many of the hottest industries over the last few years have been alternative energy crazes, and the short term bubble this often produces, independent of long term viability, can also be a highly profitable area of focus, and I intend to fully capitalize on this opportunity. Ethanol is the most spectacular recent example of this phenomenon.
  • Morgan Martindell

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    This article has 2 comments:

    •  
      May 29 04:50 PM
      Greetings, good thoughts; I too like to have puts on overpriced stocks in an overheated market and then cash in when the high beta stocks tumble. I own HMX as well, I just left Mexico and the development is running rampant. Quality of life and cost of living are increasing; I expect home ownership and business capital expenditures to increase their rapid pace.

      In addition to your recommendations, I'd advise diversifying with more than just standard long/short stock positions. I've listed several alternative investment strategies for regular investors including hedge mutual funds, futures sites tied to your local real estate market, high yield stocks and lending through Prosper.com. These days, even the international markets are highly correlated with the U.S. market as evidenced by the Feb 27 Asian meltdown. Even commodities tumbled (usually only about a .4 correlation coefficient with major indices). Hope these strategies provide for some additional diversification. Enjoy.

      everydayfinance.blogsp...
    •  
      Jun 28 02:36 PM
      good insight my dear friend

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