Major Commodity Trading: Wheat and Coffee Overbought, Gold, OJ At Bottom of Range

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: Below we highlight the price charts of ten popularly traded commodities. The shaded area represents two standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average, and when the price moves above or below this area, it is considered overbought or oversold.

As we noted in our previous post, oil remains stuck in the middle of its range. Gold and orange juice are the only two that are trading near the bottom of their trading areas, while wheat and coffee are nearing overbought territory. For a list of commodity ETFs, click here.

Comments

[Greg Pinelli]

While it's always interesting, and sometimes profitable, to look at trading ranges there are more than a few issues that present themselves.
1. Standard deviation envelopes are very useful...but for them to represent "overbought" or "oversold" limits historical ranges need to be looked at carefully...for instance...2 standard deviations above the current price might mean nothing if this is an equity whose volatility has been low recently, but in the near past has been as much as 3.5 deviations above the current price before correcting.
2. Which brings us to periodic volatility...look at the deviation band on several of the commodities...corn and oj.
If the band suddenly widens due to price fluctuations then overbought becomes?? nothing....
3. There is NO substitute for understanding the longer term fundamentals...pattern... are built on fundamental notions of long term suplly and demand.....standard deviation envelopes follow, not lead, those fundamentals..

Unfortunately, the over clever, and under informed construct trading bibles on the cheap by looking at oversimplified constructs of very complicated issues...just look at others on Alpha like "Zman" for the poster child of irrelevancy

2007 May 31 11:34 PM

[AL-Hamdani For Green Yemen ...]

AL-Hamdani
For Green Yemen(Mocha)Coffee Exporters&Gen.Agen...
Dear Sirs,
[e-mail]




We have the pleasure to introduce ourselves as the major company for Yemen
(Mokha Coffee) producer and exporter in Yemen and its branches in the Arab
Gulf countries.


It is not unknown the Yemeni product of (Mokha Coffee) is second to none all
over the world.


We are keen to deal with you as agents in your country for our product
mentioned above.


By virtue of its incomparable distinct super quality, flavor and taste,
Yemeni coffee will certainly find ready sale all the time and the consumers
demand for the Yemeni Mocka coffee will be increasingly considerable in
your markets due to its best quality not found elsewhere in the world.


You will therefore find us prepared to grant you very promising competitive
prices to signify our interest in establishing business with your esteemed
firm for mutual benefit.


Your rapid reply is expected with thanks.


Best Regards,


Ahmed Al-Hamdani

General Manger

Main Center:Sana'a-Zubairi

st.-Aser/Tel:++967-1-2...

009671200441

Fax=[phone]

BOX 25373 Sana'a yemen

coffee-yemen.com

2007 Nov 01 09:20 AM

[AL-Hamdani For Green Yemen ...]

AL-Hamdani
For Green Yemen(Mocha)Coffee Exporters&Gen.Agen...
Dear Sirs,
[e-mail]




We have the pleasure to introduce ourselves as the major company for Yemen
(Mokha Coffee) producer and exporter in Yemen and its branches in the Arab
Gulf countries.


It is not unknown the Yemeni product of (Mokha Coffee) is second to none all
over the world.


We are keen to deal with you as agents in your country for our product
mentioned above.


By virtue of its incomparable distinct super quality, flavor and taste,
Yemeni coffee will certainly find ready sale all the time and the consumers
demand for the Yemeni Mocka coffee will be increasingly considerable in
your markets due to its best quality not found elsewhere in the world.


You will therefore find us prepared to grant you very promising competitive
prices to signify our interest in establishing business with your esteemed
firm for mutual benefit.


Your rapid reply is expected with thanks.


Best Regards,


Ahmed Al-Hamdani

General Manger

Main Center:Sana'a-Zubairi

st.-Aser/Tel:++967-1-2...

009671200441

Fax=[phone]

BOX 25373 Sana'a yemen

coffee-yemen.com

2007 Nov 01 09:20 AM