David Fry's Market Outlook for Friday

|
 |  Includes: DBE, GLD
by: David Fry

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007
WAITING FOR NEWS

The week wraps-up with all the major news investors are keen to see: jobs data, consumer sentiment, personal income and ISM Manufacturing Index. Will there be any surprises, or is this just part of the drill?

The momentum is with bulls [an obvious statement], but with many market indexes again overbought any negatives in the reports could bring out some sellers. However, most negative news items have been quickly dismissed as the positive aspects of acquisitions continue to overwhelm any attempts by bears.

Notwithstanding tomorrow's action, bonds could garner some attention as thoughts of Fed easing wax and wane. The negative action in bonds is something we've been pointing out for several weeks now. Tomorrow's data could push yields sharply one way or another.

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007_001

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007_002

The supply/demand picture seems bearish for gold, but some folks aren't impressed.

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007_003

PSST! Hurricane season begins tomorrow.

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007_004

We could repost all the charts, but Friday could change "weekly" charts in a major way. There wasn't much change in either conditions or comments anyway.

May closes-out with good returns as window-dressers have done their job. Now we'll see if the "sell in May and go away crowd" got it right -- to sell on the last trading day of the month.

Individual investors, claimed as often wrong, seemed to be sellers.

D Fry Market Outlook 01 06 2007_005

Trading desks and hedge funds are dominating activity just by a cursory view of program trading data reflecting one of every three trades to be part of a program.

Program Trading 01 06 2007

Have a pleasant weekend.

Disclaimer: Among other issues, the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: $USD, streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) and PowerShares DB Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:DBE).