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Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: S&P/Case Shiller recently released the March figures for median home prices in the 20 cities they analyze. As many of you know, the Chicago Merc trades futures contracts based on these home-price indices.

Below we highlight the difference between the actual March home price figures and the contract price of the home-price futures expiring in May 2008. As shown, all eleven contracts are indicating increased weakness in the housing market. Las Vegas is expected to decline the most, while San Francisco is expected to decline the least.

click to enlarge

We also made charts of the historical year-over-year monthly percent change in the actual home-price figures for the 20 cities that S&P/Case Shiller tracks. These charts paint a pretty good picture of the severity of the declines in home price appreciation across the board. The one exception is Charlotte, where a decline has yet to take place.

housing 1

housing 2

housing 3

housing composite

Source: A Look At U.S. Home Price Performance in 20 Markets