Crocs: Has The Easy Money Already Been Made?

Ant & Sons wrote an eloquent piece about Crocs (CROX), weighing in my earlier article about the company. Just for the sake of clarity, I have been recommending the shares to my members at Yared Investment Research since the stock was $44. I believed then that the surprises to come to the upside were evident as Crocs was accumulating retail sales channel partners by the droves. Also, for an emerging growth company, the operating margins are absolutely unbelievable.

The stock is now at $85.20 and of course, the easy money has been already made. The stock going forward has a two-for-one split effective on June 14th. The stock split is attracting a newer set of investors, both individual and institutional. Crocs is a bona fide super-growth story, but is priced for near- perfection. Any small miscues in this June quarter will give investors pause and could rock the shares down 10-15%. That being said, the company has so far executed superbly on all major fronts, so they must be given the benefit of any doubt--for now at least.

I estimate Crocs to achieve $700 million in revenues this year with EPS of $3.00-3.05, followed by 2008 revenues of $900-910 million and EPS of $3.85-3.90. With a solid 30-35% growth rate, the shares can support a 30 PE multiple on 2008's $3.90, or a price target of $110-115, $55-58 post split.

In the real world, short-sellers have gotten annihilated in this name and would obviously like to get even. The June quarter must be almost perfect or the shorts will pile-in and extract their pound of flesh (or get even). But the good news for any longer term investor is that Crocs is for real; the company has gone beyond the "fad/ niche" persona and is looking to achieve the status of "phenomenon". It's not just a goofy shoe company any more!

If you are long the stock since the $40's, it's a nice problem to have. Be careful not to get too caught up with the microscopic evaluation that Crocs is about to go under following the June results. The momentum and the execution of the model are in terrific shape.

CROX 1-yr chart

Disclosure: none

Comments

[borisb:]

i agree, and just wonder what will a 12 month hate campaign via $200 million of competitive new product spending to introduce a clone into global distribution channels by a company like Nike or Addidas going to have on Crocs's ability to grow 2008 revenue by your $200+ million estimate? Do you have any new conviction on Croc's favorable market share position in international markets with the higher ASPs? Have the Flextronics leaders solidified the multi point geo- global manufacturing advange, if any? How solid is marketing, distribution, and manufacturing in Chinda? Aware of that huge and fierce established want to be global plastic shoe company in Brazil?

2007 Jun 17 12:47 PM

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