I am holding X puts following a fast buy and sell of calls on Friday because the surge on Friday seemed to be a repeat of merger speculation that never panned out late last year (fool me once shame on me....). C'mon, a German/Russian steel combo that's going to buy U.S. Steel? Yes, I think JP Morgan and Andy Carnegie were both rolling in their graves on Friday.
While it was all well and good to do a long call scalp on X, the manipulation stinks - just stinks. I am wondering which hedge fund needed to get out in the $120s in a hurry, or who needed the stock up big a week before June options expiration? What was especially damning was the fade in implied volatility in the final half hour of trading in the X options. I'd say there's about a ZERO percent chance we see a U.S. Steel deal today. Unless something else comes along that can replace the now dead Thyssen rumor, this stock is headed back to the one-teens - perhaps around its 10 dma at about $115.
X 1-yr chart
