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Not again!

In 1941 it was Hitler and Moussolini, now it's Merkel and Draghi who have run a Blitzkrieg on Greece, overwhelming Europe's poor southern state with a campaign of financial "shock and awe" that has finally subjugated the Greek people. Just like in 1941, a collaborationist Greek government was put in place to carry out the will of the Troika and once again the citizens of Greece will suffer as their nation's wealth is sucked dry to feed the EU's banking machine.

The occupation of Greece in the 1940s led to 300,000 civilians dying of starvation and, with 22% unemployment already in Greece and new austerity measures trashing the social safety net and lowering wages for those lucky enough to have jobs - it won't be very long before the next round of starvation begins to set in. The last axis occupation of Greece lasted "only" three years and left the country in ruins, leading to civil war in 1944 when the expulsion of the collaborators left a power vacuum in government. The Troika plan to occupy Greece for 18 years - what could possibly go wrong? As noted by Automatic Earth:

Mario Draghi, looks more and more like the bad guy from the B-rated horror movie series Saw with every passing day. Jigsaw was his name. Or maybe I should say "is" his name, because that series apparently never ends just like the tortured European sovereign debt and banking crises. For those unfamiliar, the premise behind the movie was that Jigsaw would create extremely uncomfortable situations for people, both psychologically and physically, and then watch how they react.

It was all originally supposed to be about an old cancer patient (Jigsaw) who teaches others about the true value of life in clever ways, but was really just about another pathetic, sadistic man who manufactures impossible situations and gets off on watching other people suffer. Sounds a lot like what's going on in Europe, huh? By now, everyone and their pet dogs are familiar with the pan-European motto - AUSTERITY OR DIE!

We cut off the limbs to save the core and throw our fellow man under the bus, because they tell us that those are our only collective choices. Mario "Jigsaw" Draghi, especially, has been cast in the role of the wise old man who serves as the "neutral" arbiter of the European Monetary Union. However, when we look beneath the surface, it is clear that he is anything but neutral, and is simply running a rigged game for the benefit of the major European banks (with the willing aid of technocratic politicians such as Lucas Papademos and Mario "Three Card" Monti).

The goal of Greek austerity is to funnel as much money as possible from Greece to the EU (clearly NOT Greece anymore) for as long as possible. Millions of people will suffer for generations in order that a few banksters will be spared the embarrassment of having to write down a bad loan. Meanwhile, these same bankers have themselves gotten TRILLIONS of euros in non-recourse bailouts themselves - enough to pull Greece out of debt five times over yet not one penny has been given to Greece without interest-bearing strings attached.

Of course, Greece is just a dress rehearsal for the financial invasion of the rest of the EU peripheral PIIGS, for every euro that is owed by Greece, 10 are owed by Portugal, Spain and Italy alone, with most of Ireland's debt being considered England's problem - and that one will be a hoot and a holler when it hits the fan (see Thursday's post for more on EU debt loads as well as our top two disaster hedges). According to the Athens News, kicking Europe's can down the road for another few months has cost the Greeks $70Bn worth of fresh debt - all part of the very generous "bailout package."

Why would Mario Draghi, an Itialian, be setting up a situation that will ultimately sell 60M Italians into the same debt slavery that he is currently forcing the rest of the PIIGS into? Perhaps that can be explained by those who knew him as the vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International from 2002-2005, after which he became the governor of the Bank of Italy (overseeing the massive build-up of Italian debt) until moving in to replace Trichet as the head of the ECB in November (see "Goldman Sachs Conquers Europe").

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As noted by the Independent: "The ascension of Mario Monti to the Italian prime ministership is remarkable for more reasons than it is possible to count. By replacing the scandal-surfing Silvio Berlusconi, Italy has dislodged the undislodgeable. By imposing rule by unelected technocrats, it has suspended the normal rules of democracy, and maybe democracy itself. And by putting a senior adviser at Goldman Sachs in charge of a Western nation, it has taken to new heights the political power of an investment bank that you might have thought was prohibitively politically toxic."

The NYTimes had an excellent article this weekend titled "Is This the End of Market Democracy" in which Simon Johnson makes a point that Goldman Sachs and its pals in the financial sector have used their lobbying clout to avoid more onerous forms of regulation. Schools for the well-off are better than ever; those for everyone else continue to deteriorate. Elites in all societies use their superior access to the political system to protect their interests, absent a countervailing democratic mobilization to rectify the situation. American elites are no exception to the rule - we're just seeing it play out in Europe first.

Larry Summers wrote in the Financial Times: "The spread of stagnation and abnormal unemployment from Japan to the rest of the industrialized world does raise doubts about capitalism's efficacy as a promoter of employment and rising living standards for a broad middle class. Serious questions about the fairness of capitalism are being raised. These are driven by sharp increases in unemployment beyond the business cycle - one in six of American men between 25 and 54 is likely to be out of work even after the economy recovers - combined with dramatic rises in the share of income going to the top 1% (and even the top 0.01%) of the population and declining social mobility. The problem is real and profound and seems very unlikely to correct itself untended."

Globally we are fighting a war between the haves and the have-nots and the situation in Europe does very much remind me of the rolling Axis threat in WWII, with the American people standing by and doing nothing (because we have our own problems, right?) while the banksters roll their bond tanks over nation after nation and each time the other nations rush to appease them - hoping they will be spared. This calls to mind the famous statement made by Martin Niemoller about the inactivity of the German intellectuals during the Nazi rise to power as they purged group after group:

First they came for the communists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.

Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.

Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.

Substitute Greeks, Portuguese and Italians for those and you've pretty much got the road map that leads to you. Not YOU, of course, I'm sure YOUR nation would never borrow more than it was comfortable paying back on your behalf and certainly Goldman Sachs couldn't possibly put one of their people into a position of power to engineer a situation that forces your government to borrow more money to bail out the banksters, who then return the favor by foreclosing on your country - no way, not us ...

Even as I write this, former Goldman Sachs trader Jim Cramer is on CNBC telling the viewers how great the Greek deal is and how we now have nothing to worry about in Europe. "Don't speak out" Cramer says, "don't be outraged" and, above all "don't be concerned." The other host seems to have the job of saying "Dow 13,000" every five minutes or so and, as we did in 2008, we are starting to see the parade of guests who tell us how great it is to have a "wall of worry" for the market to climb.

Wall of worry is another great stock market scam. Whenever you hear alliteration in a market "truism" - be very afraid. Do you buy a car when you have a wall of worry? Do you buy a home when you are worried about your job, the neighborhood, your marriage, the price of the house, the economy? According to Cramer and his pumping buddies - that's the correct time to buy. Wall of worry is nothing more than a slick sales tool to put lipstick on the pig stocks they are trying to sell high to future bag-holders.

Be very careful out there - they're coming for you.

Disclosure: I am short USO, DIA, QQQ.

Additional disclosure: Positions as indicated but subject to change.

From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012