Still Growing! The Q4 And 2015 Full Year Update Of The Average Joe Broad Market Portfolios

|
Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: Scott Nickerson

Summary

4th quarter gains average 5.17%.

Slow and steady still wins in the long run.

36% average YOY dividend increase!

This is a follow-up and update to the Average Joe Broad Market Portfolio and methodology first presented to the SA audience in Q3 of last year (here). The Q3, 2015 update is (available here). The intent of these portfolios is to show the real results of the market and provide a methodology that any market neophyte can utilize to build wealth. One that even the little guys, the Average Joe's, can build. It allocates a small sum each week and grows that input year by year to amass that wealth over time. To more seasoned market veterans, this would seem like a painfully slow approach, but it is not intended for an advanced user. It is slow moving and prone to many twists and turns in the short run.

The "broad market" for this portfolio is represented in just three index ETFs: the State Street Global Advisor's SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), Invesco's Powershares QQQ (covering the NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ), and another State Street Global Advisors product covering the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA). For a full understanding of the methodologies used please refer to that article.

A new Average Joe Broad Market portfolio was started each year, beginning 1/1/2000, with weekly data provided by Yahoo (Author's note: Yahoo weeks are listed as the "week of _____." These portfolios therefore are not on a fiscal nor calendar quarter. Instead, they begin with the first Monday of every quarter and end on the last day of the week of the last Monday of the quarter.)

The ETFs for the year and quarter 4

ETF The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) ended fiscal 2014 at $205.43 and ended fiscal quarter 3 at $194.99. The end of fiscal 2015 and Q4 brought the ETF to $203.87. This is down $1.56 or -0.76% for the year but up $8.88 (4.55%) for the quarter. Essentially flat for the year, the uptick for the close of the quarter brought about needed relief for most of the portfolios. Only the portfolio begun in 2008 benefited from the lower prices in SPY during the quarter, buying additional shares in the week of 11/9.

The NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) faired a little better, climbing from a close of $102.94 at the end of last year and a close of $104.01 at the end of Q3 to close at $111.51. This is a $8.57 per share gain for the year and $7.50 per share for the quarter, earning respectable 8.33% gain for the year and a 7.21% gain for the quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) mirrored the S&P trend, finishing up for Q3, but losing slightly for the entire year. The ETF finished the year at $173.99, down $3.91 (2.2%) from the close at the end of 2014 ($177.94). The end of Q3 closed at $164.58 so the gain for Q4 was $9.41 per share or 5.72%.

The Changes to the portfolio positions

During Q4, six different start date portfolios purchased additional shares in one of the ETFs. These purchases are shown in the table below along with the revised average purchase price in that portfolio. The purchase price per share reflects the shares with the allotted $7.00 commission per trade.

Purchases during Q4

Portfolio Start

ETF Purchased

Shares Purchased

Purchase Price Per Share

Average Purchase Price

2004

QQQ

8

$111.67

$68.73

2005

DIA

4

$180.89

$136.35

2006

DIA

4

$175.74

$138.84

2008

SPY

4

$204.29

$154.98

2009

DIA

4

$180.17

$138.84

2013

QQQ

2

$113.34

$95.06

Click to enlarge

Current Stats for The Portfolio(s)

In the tables below are the current stats for the portfolios (share positions, position, cash and total value)

2000 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

54

55

54

$26,537.49

$862.99

$27,400.48

2001 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

46

46

46

$22,511.02

$1,160.80

$23,671.82

2002 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

38

38

38

$18,596.06

$1,215.66

$19,811.72

2003 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

39

31

31

$16,801.43

$765.85

$17,567.28

2004 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

31

31

23

$13,778.55

$132.21

$13,910.76

2005 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

23

23

23

$11,255.51

$258.13

$11,513.64

2006 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

19

19

19

$9,298.03

$22.83

$9,320.86

2007 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

15

15

15

$7,340.55

$337.11

$7,677.66

2008 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

15

11

11

$6,198.55

$134.69

$6,333.24

2009 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

11

11

11

$5,383.07

$64.01

$5,447.08

2010 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

7

7

7

$3,425.59

$586.29

$4,011.88

2011 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

7

5

5

$2,854.59

$204.75

$3,059.34

2012 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

5

5

3

$2,098.87

$227.39

$2,326.26

2013 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

4

4

2

$1,609.50

$59.01

$1,668.51

2014 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

2

2

2

$978.74

$139.66

$1,118.40

2015 Start

Shares of SPY

Shares of QQQ

Shares of DIA

Total Position Value

Cash Value

Total Portfolio

2

1

1

$693.24

$66.49

$759.73

Click to enlarge

Q4 Gains

In the tables below are the pertinent figures in calculating gains for fiscal Q4, 2015.

Portfolio Start

Value - EOQ3 2015

Value - EOQ4 2015

Q4 Added Capital

Q4 Dividends

Q4 Gross change

Q4 Gain (Loss)

Q4 G/L %

2000

$25,273.41

$27,400.48

$585.00

$141.92

$2,127.07

$1,400.15

5.54%

2001

$21,858.10

$23,671.82

$507.00

$120.38

$1,813.72

$1,186.34

5.43%

2002

$18,277.10

$19,811.72

$455.00

$ 99.44

$1,534.62

$ 980.18

5.36%

2003

$16,204.36

$17,567.28

$403.00

$ 89.39

$1,362.92

$ 870.53

5.37%

2004

$12,825.60

$13,910.76

$351.00

$ 71.20

$1,085.16

$ 662.96

5.17%

2005

$10,627.83

$11,513.64

$299.00

$ 58.88

$ 885.81

$ 527.93

4.97%

2006

$ 8,582.69

$ 9,320.86

$247.00

$ 45.80

$ 738.17

$ 445.37

5.19%

2007

$ 7,030.56

$ 7,677.66

$221.00

$ 39.25

$ 647.10

$ 386.85

5.50%

2008

$ 5,827.44

$ 6,333.24

$195.00

$ 28.79

$ 505.80

$ 282.01

4.84%

2009

$ 5,029.60

$ 5,447.08

$169.00

$ 27.15

$ 417.48

$ 221.03

4.40%

2010

$ 3,670.03

$ 4,011.88

$143.00

$ 18.32

$ 341.85

$ 180.53

4.92%

2011

$ 2,780.48

$ 3,059.34

$117.00

$ 15.15

$ 278.86

$ 146.71

5.28%

2012

$ 2,101.01

$ 2,326.26

$104.00

$ 11.12

$ 225.25

$ 110.13

5.24%

2013

$ 1,503.85

$ 1,668.51

$ 91.00

$ 7.99

$ 164.66

$ 65.67

4.37%

2014

$ 983.58

$ 1,118.40

$ 78.00

$ 5.23

$ 134.82

$ 51.59

5.25%

2015

$ 653.60

$ 759.73

$ 65.00

$ 2.62

$ 106.13

$ 38.51

5.89%

Click to enlarge

Dividend Increases!

Portfolio Start

Dividends 2014

Dividends 2015

Increase

Increase %

Q3 Divs

Q4 Divs

Increase %

2000

$378.24

$475.86

$97.62

25.81%

$123.46

$141.92

14.95%

2001

$329.72

$406.59

$76.87

23.31%

$109.31

$120.38

10.13%

2002

$267.85

$336.46

$68.61

25.62%

$ 93.47

$ 99.44

6.39%

2003

$238.15

$294.85

$56.70

23.81%

$ 76.25

$ 89.39

17.23%

2004

$189.77

$231.67

$41.90

22.08%

$ 64.60

$ 71.20

10.22%

2005

$159.61

$193.56

$33.95

21.27%

$ 51.76

$ 58.88

13.76%

2006

$123.38

$158.51

$35.13

28.47%

$ 41.93

$ 45.80

9.23%

2007

$ 95.79

$128.64

$32.85

34.29%

$ 34.29

$ 39.25

14.46%

2008

$ 77.61

$101.69

$24.08

31.03%

$ 27.06

$ 28.79

6.39%

2009

$ 66.07

$ 87.83

$21.76

32.93%

$ 22.25

$ 27.15

22.02%

2010

$ 49.87

$ 64.72

$14.85

29.78%

$ 17.22

$ 18.32

6.39%

2011

$ 35.52

$ 48.29

$12.77

35.95%

$ 12.30

$ 15.15

23.17%

2012

$ 25.10

$ 37.65

$12.55

50.00%

$ 9.89

$ 11.12

12.44%

2013

$ 16.48

$ 25.11

$ 8.63

52.37%

$ 6.93

$ 7.99

15.30%

2014

$ 7.94

$ 16.15

$ 8.21

103.40%

$ 4.44

$ 5.23

17.79%

2015

-----

-----

-----

-----

$ 2.46

$ 2.62

6.50%

Click to enlarge

Gains and Dividends since inception

Portfolio Start

Value - EOQ4 2015

Capital Invested

Dividends

Invested

Total Capital IN

Gain (Loss)

G/L %

2000

$27,400.48

$16,620

$2,156.94

$18,776.94

$8,623.54

45.93%

2001

$23,671.82

$14,280

$1,828.23

$16,108.23

$7,563.59

46.95%

2002

$19,811.72

$12,252

$1,494.10

$13,746.10

$6,065.52

44.13%

2003

$17,567.28

$10,432

$1,291.90

$11,723.90

$5,843.38

49.84%

2004

$13,910.76

$ 8,820

$ 999.43

$ 9,819.43

$4,091.33

41.67%

2005

$11,513.64

$ 7,416

$ 790.25

$ 8,206.25

$3,307.39

40.30%

2006

$ 9,320.86

$ 6,220

$ 612.51

$ 6,832.51

$2,488.05

36.41%

2007

$ 7,677.66

$ 5,232

$ 472.80

$ 5,704.80

$1,972.86

34.58%

2008

$ 6,333.24

$ 4,348

$ 362.90

$ 4,710.90

$1,622.34

34.44%

2009

$ 5,447.08

$ 3,568

$ 304.71

$ 3,872.71

$1,574.37

40.65%

2010

$ 4,011.88

$ 2,892

$ 206.22

$ 3,098.22

$ 913.66

29.49%

2011

$ 3,059.34

$ 2,320

$ 136.71

$ 2,456.71

$ 602.63

24.53%

2012

$ 2,326.26

$ 1,852

$ 90.83

$ 1,942.83

$ 383.43

19.74%

2013

$ 1,668.51

$ 1,436

$ 51.29

$ 1,487.29

$ 181.22

12.18%

2014

$ 1,118.40

$ 1,072

$ 24.09

$ 1,096.09

$ 35.31

3.22%

2015

$ 759.73

$ 760

$ 7.73

$ 767.73

($ 8.00)

-1.04%

Click to enlarge

All things being equal.........

In the tables below are the projected values at the 20, 25, 30 and 35 year marks based on the portfolio's performance since its inception through the end of Q4 2015.

Portfolio Start

Value - EOQ4 2015

Projected 20 year

Projected 25 year

Projected 30 year

Projected 35 year

2000

$27,400.48

$52,143

$106,751

$202,525

$362,727

2001

$23,671.82

$53,875

$111,119

$212,573

$384,262

2002

$19,811.72

$53,760

$110,828

$211,899

$382,810

2003

$17,567.28

$58,793

$123,767

$242,253

$449,232

2004

$13,910.76

$55,367

$114,920

$221,401

$403,380

2005

$11,513.64

$56,092

$116,777

$225,744

$412,849

2006

$ 9,320.86

$55,222

$114,849

$220,537

$401,501

2007

$ 7,677.66

$56,151

$116,930

$226,101

$413,632

2008

$ 6,333.24

$58,903

$124,054

$242,935

$450,749

2009

$ 5,447.08

$71,217

$157,196

$324,522

$638,645

2010

$ 4,011.88

$61,839

$131,772

$261,467

$492,304

2011

$ 3,059.34

$59,809

$126,423

$248,591

$463,356

2012

$ 2,326.26

$58,744

$123,640

$241,951

$448,561

2013

$ 1,668.51

$50,859

$103,541

$195,212

$347,208

2014

$ 1,118.40

$35,404

$ 66,987

$116,482

$189,564

2015

$ 759.73

$29,021

$ 53,113

$ 89,101

$139,555

Click to enlarge

Well, it's not pretty when compared to glamour investments like Cramer's FANG group or even Apple. But it IS ok for this Average Joe.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, DIA, QQQ.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Also long BDCL,CEFL,CYS,DVHL,ECT,EXG,GGE,GGN,GOOD,GOODO,IVR,LMLP,MORL,ORC,POT,PSEC,REM,SDR,SMHD,SWHC