My New 'Seeing Red' Opportunistic Want To Buy List With Estimated Dividend Yields And 'Seeing Green' Raises For 2016

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Includes: AAPL, ABBV, AMGN, BA, CAT, CL, CMI, CNP, CSCO, D, DEO, DLR, DPS, EMR, GIS, HCP, HON, HSY, IBM, INTC, JNJ, KMB, KO, LMT, MA, MAIN, MMM, MSFT, NHI, NNN, O, OHI, PCP, PEP, PG, SBUX, T, TGT, UNP, V, VFC, VTR, VZ, WEC, WFC, WMT, WPC, XOM
by: RoseNose

Summary

My portfolio numbers are showing red, sad to say, but to me it also means opportunity and the need for a new WTB list.

I will share my new WTB list and maybe it will help you get ready for opportunity to buy.

I also present estimated "seeing green" income raises for 2016 with the corresponding dividend yields and buy prices.

investment portfolio Here is my last article describing my 74 stock portfolio, if you care to view the holdings.

In early January I sold the 50% remainder of DPS and all of PCP resulting in now owning only 72 stocks. I have some ready cash and now a new WTB list.

First, here is a bit about the transactions and the companies, I sold:

Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS)

I had determined DPS was overvalued, having a P/E of 23. Morningstar had only 1 star on it and a fair value of $64 and they tend to be generous. I sold 50% in 2015 @ $92. In January it was downgraded by Goldman to sell. To me this means the price could and most likely will only fall from here, it now is @ $89. Part of the decision to sell involved the low yield of 2% and the small position size within the portfolio. I sold the remainder for ~ $91 last week. I did get to collect the first quarter dividend for all the shares in January 2016. This sale was done in a taxable account, so I spread the capital gains across 2 years. I will wait for a better entry price with a better yield, if it ever becomes interesting to me again. I did enjoy this stock for the 2-3 years I held it, doubling my money with just the capital gains. Time to move on.

Precision Cast Parts (NYSE:PCP) and BRK.

PCP popped from $195 when I purchased it back in the summer of 2015, it had become a value play for a quality name. Warren Buffett, of Berkshire (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), announced in 2015 his intention to purchase it in 2016 for $235 per share. The share price has now stalled since then @ $232. I had been holding out for the full $235 offered, but in this most recent and current market downturn, I changed my mind and took the cash. I have a plan to put it to good use in hopefully some amazing opportunities. In case you were worried, I did wait it out long enough to collect the meager puny dividend of 3c/share. For a time recently, I even had the amazing thought of buying some Berkshire again. It is heading down and if it hit a low price of $121.50 and a P/E of 15. it would be tempting.. The earnings for 2016 are forecast as $8.10 to get this price. It is presently trading @ ~18 P/E and $126, for 2015 earnings of $6.90. I do so love value, but dislike non paying dividend stocks, no matter how quality they may seem. I most likely will not venture into BRK.B again. This, however, may be opportunity knocking for others to buy, so be ready, or not, here it comes.

MY WTB List for January 15- 18, 2016

Below is a chart of some stocks from my portfolio, of which I have interest in adding to and a few others that hold interest to me for possible ownership. Please note most of these common stocks are quality with S&P investment grade credit ratings in the AAA down to BBB+ category. Debt/Cap is also shown in the next column, as indicated by Fast graphs/FG. I have included at the end of the chart some eREITs and my favorite BDC MAIN. These type investments in general have lower credit ratings, but remain investment grade. MAIN with a BBB, is one of the highest rated BDC stocks available.

The current stock prices are for 1-15-2016. They were used for all calculations. I used the estimated 2016 dividends for my WTB price list. Some of the dividend increases are known and many are not, so these are pure and simple educated estimates and should not be believed to be fact. This dividend chase is and has not been an easy task for me. Some prices are quoted by fiscal year, as in FG, and others by calendar year as in Yahoo Finance. I have used my best judgment to meld them together in the numbers presented. I give David Fish huge kudos for maintaining his website and digging into all the dividend information of the Champions, Challengers and Contenders. Please refer to it, if you have any questions about dividend paying streaks.

Ventas (NYSE:VTR) was and is somewhat confusing and I admit the numbers seem off, but I did use the information as shown in FAST graphs, FG. They spun off CCP, and this has given them strange statistics for 2015 , to continue into 2016 for a few quarters. For MAIN I also included the special dividend of 0.275c given 2x per year, or 55c extra per year. MAIN pays monthly and raises the dividend often throughout the year in small increments. OHI and O, e REITs also do the same.

Also note, the International stocks like DEO are experiencing rate exchange dividend bumpiness, that is hard to interpret. DEO, pays twice yearly with uneven payments. The larger coming in the fall. Yahoo Finance, SA portfolio and even FG, has the information incorrect for the dividend and yield. I hesitate to add to any of these type stocks for this reason unless I know they are experiencing dividend raises. DEO is due for a dividend payment in spring and that is when I will know what it pays. Please, as always, do your own due diligence.

Stock S&P CR D/Cap 2015 div 1/15/16 pr yield Est 16 Div yield WTB yield
(NASDAQ:AAPL) Apple AA+ 29 1.98 97.05 2 2.18 2.2 95 2.3
(NYSE:ABBV) AbbVie A 84 2.02 57.34 3.5 2.28 4.1 47 4.85
(NASDAQ:AMGN) Amgen A 51 3.16 151.3 2.1 4 2.6 133 3
(NYSE:BA) Boeing A 53 3.64 125.63 2.9 4.36 3.5 124.57 3.5
(NYSE:GIS) General Mills A 50 1.76 54.74 3.2 1.91 3.5 50.26 3.8
(NYSE:HSY) Hershey A 49 2.23 83.32 2.7 2.42 2.9 80.67 3
(NYSE:EMR) Emerson Electric A+ 28 1.88 43.09 4.4 1.9 4.4 39.58 4.8
(NYSE:IBM) Intl Business Machine AA- 60 5 130.03 3.8 5.2 4 123.81 4.2
(NYSE:JNJ) Johnson & Johnson AAA 15 2.95 97 3 3.09 3.2 93.64 3.3
(NYSE:KO) Coca-Cola AA- 36 1.32 41.5 3.2 1.41 3.4 40.29 3.5
(NYSE:KMB) Kimberly Clark A 78 3.52 125.36 2.8 3.73 3 106.57 3.5
(NYSE:MA) MasterCard A 19 0.67 88.71 0.75 0.79 0.9 79 1
(NYSE:MMM) 3M AA- 38 4.1 138.69 3 4.44 3.2 134.55 3.3
(NYSE:PEP) PepsiCo A 57 2.76 93.93 2.9 2.96 3.2 89.7 3.3
(NYSE:PG) Procter & Gamble AA- 18 2.63 74.98 3.5 2.79 3.7 69.75 4
(NYSE:CL) Colgate Palmolive AA- 88 1.5 63.35 2.4 1.62 2.6 57.86 2.8
(NYSE:CMI) Cummins A+ 16 3.51 84.35 4.2 3.9 4.6 78 5
(NYSE:CNP) Centerpoint Energy A- 60 0.99 17.3 5.7 1.03 6 16.6 6.2
(NYSE:CAT) Caterpillar A 47 3.08 59.87 5.1 3.23 5.4 49.69 6.5
(NASDAQ:SBUX) Starbucks A- 29 0.64 58 1.1 0.8 1.4 50 1.6
(NYSE:TGT) Target A 45 2.16 70.08 3.1 2.31 3.3 66 3.5
(NYSE:V) Visa A+ 0 0.5 71.83 0.7 0.58 0.8 64.44 0.9
(NYSE:WEC) WEC Energy A- 46 1.76 52.75 3.3 1.98 3.8 48.29 4.1
(NYSE:WFC) Wells Fargo A+ 0 1.48 48.82 3 1.56 3.2 47.27 3.3
(NYSE:DEO) Diageo A- 42 3.48 102.33 3.4 3.5 3.4 100 3.5
(NYSE:HON) Honeywell A 19 2.15 97.26 2.2 2.39 2.5 88.52 2.7
(NASDAQ:MSFT) Microsoft AAA 23 1.29 50.99 2.5 1.44 2.8 48 3
(NYSE:WMT) Wal-Mart AA- 33 1.96 61.93 3.2 2.02 3.3 50.5 4
(NASDAQ:CSCO) Cisco AA- 25 0.84 23.62 3.6 0.92 3.9 23 4
(NASDAQ:INTC) Intel A+ 23 0.96 29.76 3.2 1.02 3.4 26.84 3.8
(NYSE:UNP) Union Pacific A 37 2.2 74.11 3 2.3 3.1 69.7 3.2
(NYSE:VFC) VF Corporation A 17 1.33 54.98 2.4 1.53 2.8 51 3
(NYSE:XOM) Exxon Mobil AAA 9 2.88 77.58 3.7 3.01 3.9 75.25 4
(NYSE:T) ATT BBB+ 48 1.88 33.99 5.5 1.92 5.65 32 6
(NYSE:VZ) Verizon BBB+ 82 2.23 44.43 5 2.28 5.1 41.45 5.5
(NYSE:D) Dominion BBB+ 57 2.59 68.88 3.8 2.8 4.1 65.11 4.3
(NYSE:LMT) Lockheed Martin BBB+ 66 6.15 215.99 2.85 6.6 3.1 188.57 3.5
(NYSE:MAIN) Main Street Capital BBB 43 2.65 27.28 9.7 2.71 9.9 27.1 10
(NYSE:HCP) HCP, Inc. BBB+ 51 2.26 36.24 6.2 2.35 6.5 35 6.7
(NYSE:DLR) Digital Realty BBB 53 3.4 76.32 4.45 3.57 4.7 71.4 5
(NYSE:NHI) National Health 49 3.4 59.18 5.7 3.55 6 58.2 6.1
(NYSE:NNN) Natl Retail Properties BBB+ 36 1.71 39.77 4.3 1.78 4.5 35.6 5
(NYSE:O) O Realty BBB+ 46 2.28 52.19 4.4 2.38 4.6 47.6 5
(NYSE:OHI) Omega Health Investors BBB- 51 2.18 33.25 6.55 2.33 7 32.82 7.1
Ventas BBB+ 53 3.04 54.69 5.6 3.07 5.6 51.17 6
(NYSE:WPC) WP Carey BBB 47 3.84 56.54 6.8 4.03 7.1 55.97 7.2
Click to enlarge

I also want to examine the dividend growth rates from 2015 to 2016 in this next chart.

Again, I say, some of these 2016 dividends are known, some not. I offer this estimated 1 year dividend growth chart for these stocks, with the caveat that they are just estimates. Normally, and this is important, a 5 year dividend growth rate is generally used to evaluate most stocks. One stand out to me is EMR with very low dividend growth of 1.1%. The dividend has been announced and it is known, only 2c more for 2016. IBM might also be disappointing if the forecast in FG remains to be true. Earnings announcement is Tuesday the 19th and hopefully a bigger dividend raise.

SPY for the year is only yielding 2%, pretty easy to beat that with many stocks these days. The dividend growth rate for many stocks is varied and irregular lately. The multinationals like PG and JNJ are having difficult times with the exchange rate for the strong dollar.

In this chart div means dividend. Next E-A means next Earnings Announcement date and hopefully some dividend raises. TBA in that column means "to be announced". DGR-1yr means dividend growth rate for the 1 year of 2015 to 2016. Note: they ALL are showing positive growth and none are frozen. Known means those dividend raises have been announced for 2016, but new raises may or may not ensue during the year, as the fiscal year may differ from the calendar year.

Stock 2015 div Est 16 Div DGR-1yr Next E-A
Apple 1.98 2.18 10.1 01/26/16
AbbVie 2.02 2.28 12.9 01/29/16
Amgen 3.16 4 26.6 known
Boeing 3.64 4.36 19.8 known
General Mills 1.76 1.91 8.5 TBA
Hershey 2.23 2.42 8.5 01/28/16
Emerson Electric 1.88 1.9 1.1 known
Intl Business M 5 5.2 4 01/19/16
Johnson & Johnson 2.95 3.09 4.7 01/26/16
Coca-Cola 1.32 1.41 6.8 02/09/16
Kimberly Clark 3.52 3.73 6 01/25/16
MasterCard 0.67 0.79 17.9 known
3M 4.1 4.44 8.3 01/26/16
PepsiCo 2.76 2.96 7.2 02/11/16
Procter & Gamble 2.63 2.79 6.1 01/26/16
Colgate Palmolive 1.5 1.62 8 01/29/16
Cummins 3.51 3.9 11.1 02/04/16
Centerpoint Energy 0.99 1.03 4 02/26/16
Caterpillar 3.08 3.23 5 01/28/16
Starbucks 0.64 0.8 25 known
Target 2.16 2.31 14.3 02/24/16
Visa 0.5 0.58 16 known
WEC Energy 1.76 1.98 12.4 02/04/16
Wells Fargo 1.48 1.56 5.4 TBA
Diageo 3.48 3.5 1 TBA
Honeywell 2.15 2.39 11.1 01/29/16
Microsoft 1.29 1.44 11.6 known
Wal-Mart 1.96 2.02 3.1 02/18/16
Cisco 0.84 0.92 10 02/09/16
Intel 0.96 1.02 6.3 TBA
Union Pacific 2.2 2.3 4.5 01/21/16
VF Corporation 1.33 1.53 15 known
Exxon Mobil 2.88 3.01 4.5 02/02/16
ATT 1.88 1.92 2.1 known
Verizon 2.23 2.28 2.7 known
Dominion 2.59 2.8 4.2 known
Lockheed Martin 6.15 6.6 7.3 known
Main Street 2.65 2.71 2.3 raises often
HCP, Inc. 2.26 2.35 4 02/09/16
Digital Realty 3.4 3.57 5 02/25/16
National Health 3.4 3.55 4.4 02/15/16
Natl Retail Prop 1.71 1.78 4 02/10/16
O Realty 2.28 2.38 4.4 raises often
Omega Health Inv 2.18 2.33 6.9 known
Ventas 3.04 3.07 1 02/11/16
WP Carey 3.84 4.03 4.9 02/22/16
Click to enlarge

The whole lesson here is to give you optimism for your income even when "seeing red" in your portfolio. If you own dividend paying stocks, the green cash sent to you for them makes it a whole lot more pleasant. The DGR stocks help you to reach for the best returns, with higher paying dividends year in and year out. Watch for those with the higher raises.

When you see Red, think Optimistically that it provides Opportunity for your purchases. Don't look at the bottom line of the portfolio, but keep your eyes on the dividend cash income portion of your portfolio and the GREEN cash flows from it to your bank account.

Happy Investing.

Disclosure: I am/we are long MOST AS SHOWN IN MY PORTFOLIO.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.