3 Important Levels For Bulls And Bears

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Includes: IVV, SPY, TLT, VTI
by: Chris Ciovacco

Summary

The broad stock market is flirting with a set-up similar to one found in September 2008.

CEO survey sheds some light on recent market weakness.

The S&P 500 level that still gives the bulls some hope.

S&P 500: The Glass Half Empty

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) has already violated the blue trendline below and retested the line below the orange arrow. If the bulls can mount a rally this week, 1925 can be used as a short-term guidepost.

CEOs: Becoming More Pessimistic

A survey of CEOs aligns with the stock market's recent weakness. From Bloomberg:

Chief executive officers have turned pessimistic on global economic growth, according to a new survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC.

Released on the eve of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the poll of 1,409 CEOs from 83 nations found 27 percent expect the economic outlook to improve this year, a fall from 37 percent last year. Twenty-three percent said it will worsen, up from 17 percent in 2015.

NYSE: The Bigger Picture

From a risk-reward perspective, the present day weekly NYSE Composite Stock Index's chart has some of the same concerning elements found in September 2008. This week's stock market video compares the chart below to the 2016 version. The outcome of the 2016 set-up will impact both stocks (NYSEARCA:VTI) and bonds (NYSEARCA:TLT).

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

S&P 500: The Glass Half Full

If we examine the 2016 S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:IVV) daily chart using high, low, and closing prices, the bulls still have reason to hope. The lowest intraday low made in August 2015 was 1867. The S&P 500, thus far, has been able to remain above 1867 on a closing basis. Monday's close was 1881. The odds of bad things happening increase if 1867 is taken out on a closing basis.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, TLT.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.