Yield Curve Dip -- Nothing Special

by: Roger Nusbaum

The stock market is re-pricing itself to account for this increase in rates occurring in the bond market. The trade underway is what I have been referring to as yield curve normalization. Obviously with the 10-year at 5.21%, the curve is not yet normal. Yes, it is in the process of normalizing, but it is still not normal.

I was accused of whistling past the graveyard in a comment on Seeking Alpha on this issue. I don't think the reader had the full context of how I view these things.

The current downward action is smaller (for now) than the dip in February, and the dip last June. If you have not thought about the fact the yields have been very low, and the possibility that they might go up, you might be as worried as my heckler appears to be.

The benefit of having a very simplistic trigger point to take defensive action is that you don't have to correctly interpret the current event or correctly predict what will happen next. It certainly helps to have your finger on the pulse of what is happening, to be sure, but it becomes less important.

This slight, and it is slight, dip may or may not be the beginning of the end (queue the ominous, foreboding music), but I don't know. I seriously doubt it, but no matter, the market will either trigger my exit strategy, or yours (hopefully you have one), or it won't.

Hopefully this post conveys the dispassionate way I view these things. Down a little and down a lot are NORMAL market events. They are guaranteed to occur again. If you can get your arms around this certainty, then there is no need to assign emotion to this. You won't get out at the top, be disciplined, and make the necessary changes as conditions dictate.