Yesterday was clearly a significant milestone for Crystallex (KRY) management as they reported completing the final phases of the application for their environmental permit for development of the Las Cristinas mine. Specifically, quoted directly from the press release,
The CVG confirmed that the approval of the EIS, the posting of the bond and the payment of the taxes represent the final and conclusive step in the procedure for the issuance of the Environmental permit to construct the Las Cristinas Project. Crystallex as the builder and operator of Las Cristinas will have use of this permit in order to construct the project on the basis of the approved feasibility study.
In the formal notice that MinAmb sent to the CVG, it was stated that the Environmental permit will be issued following the payment of taxes and posting of the bond. The CVG now awaits the permit required for the construction of the mine from MinAmb.
With that said, I wish to be clear about the facts and present my speculation on where Crystallex is moving as an investment, which I believe are consistent with my earlier article on Seeking Alpha:
1. Let's be absolutely clear: the final environmental permit was not granted. This press release simply confirms that Crystallex has met all its obligations, and they feel this is confirmed by the fact that the CVG has requested the appropriate payment in full for receiving the final permit.
2. Crystallex management has been very sensitive to managing expectations, particularly since the now famous comment of "Permit soon after Easter". I believe they are well aware of the frustrations from their investor base who feel that this statement was misleading, and in many ways not accurate. However, it's also clear from Crystallex's minimalist approach to PR since this statement that they will only issue press releases that have a high degree of confidence. This, in conjunction with the comments from President Chavez recently (see prior post), confirms to me that this press release was issued with Crystallex at a maximum confidence level, knowing that the environmental permit will be issued.
3. With that said, there are now four key events that are likely to propel Crystallex significantly higher:
A) Annual Meeting (June 28)
B) Expected preliminary drill results of Las Cristinas
C) Final granting of all permits required for construction/development to commence
D) Price of gold movement, particularly in the back-drop of a weakening US dollar, and significant concerns over currency exchanges, including devaluation of the Chinese currency.
Each of these four events now presents significant up-side, compared to down-side. The Annual Meeting in the context of yesterday's press release will be very positive, since progress on the environmental permit is going to be the primary issue. This has now been resolved to a large degree, and a favorable outlook was confirmed yesterday (again, the permit was not granted). The drill results and final permitting processes will all move towards confirming that Las Cristinas represents a significant natural resource with tremendous potential for exploitation. But perhaps the most interesting of the four events I mention above is the price of gold. Do I feel gold prices will increase? Absolutely. And when they do, there's no question that Crystallex will benefit tremendously, especially as Chinese private equity interests in acquiring gold industries intensifies. In fact, we should also include Russian private equity in this analysis.
So, the real question is what to do with the stock? I would absolutely be holding Crystallex and acquiring through $5.50, because I don't think we've priced in the full magnitude of the above four events. In fact, it's clear to me that at the moment we've only partially priced in the environmental permit. Remember, this stock traded above $6 when permit anticipation was quite high. What has changed since then? Nothing! Only that we are now significantly closer to receiving the final permit, and this time we've got the solid indications from the Venezuelan government to confirm it.
Best of luck to all.
Disclosure: I am a novice, long, private investor, currently with 4000 shares of KRY.
KRY 1-yr chart