I wrote that ACH's size, and its terrific dividend, gave me a good level of comfort that this was a key way to play China. I predicted that the stock would rise from its price of $19 to as high as $30 in the next 12 months. Well, ACH stalled out for a while at $22, and I can't tell you how many emails I got from people belly aching! But I had said give it 12 months, folks! Less than seven months later, ACH is now trading at $38.75, exceeding both my time expectation and my price expectation.
If you got in when I first recommended and hung on, good for you! But if you didn't, there may still be a tiny bit of room for growth left in the share price. But, hurry, as the secret is out. Goldman Sachs just raised its target on the stock yesterday and the stock rose 9% on the day. Year-to-date demand is at 40% up from 21% in 2006, and while ACH shows little sign of slowing, it probably will, partially because it is forced to. Analysts are predicting this growth to peak in 2007, due to smelting power tariffs rising in China as well as government caps on controlling the expansion of the aluminum industry.
If you still have this stock, or if you buy it now, I'd also keep a close eye on this price, and get ready to get out at the right time.
Type of stock: The largest aluminum company in China and one of the largest in the world, this one is showing phenomenal growth and still growing, but could peak by year-end.
Price target: If you bought at $19 when I recommended ACH in November, you've made a pretty penny. I rightly predicted we'd see it pass $30 within 12 months, and it overshot my predictions. Now trading at $38.75, I still think there is a bit more to squeeze from this stock. Keep your eye on it closely. If it starts falling, I'd consider getting out while the getting's good.
ACH 1-yr chart: