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Trina Solar Limited (NYSE:TSL)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call

February 23, 2012 8:00 am ET

Executives

Thomas Young – Vice President, Investor Relations

Jifan Gao – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Terry Wang – Chief Financial Officer

Mark Kingsley – Chief Commercial Officer

Analysts

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Daniel Ries – Collins Stewart Llc

Brandon Heiken – Credit Suisse

Lu Yeung – UBS Securities

Ramesh Misra – Brigantine Advisors

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Operator

Good morning. My name is Lisa, and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time, I’d like to welcome everyone to the Trina Solar Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

Thank you. Thomas Young, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Thomas Young

Okay, thank you operator. Good day to all, and welcome to Trina Solar’s fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings conference call. This is Thomas Young, Trina Solar’s Vice President of Investor Relations. With us today are Trina Solar’s Chairman and CEO, Jifan Gao; Chief Financial Officer, Terry Wang; Chief Commercial Officer, Mark Kingsley; and Senior Vice President, Operations, Gary Yu.

Before I turn the call over to Mr. Gao, may I remind our listeners that in this call, management’s prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. Therefore, the company claims the protection of the Safe Harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from those discussed today and therefore we refer you to more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, any projections as to the company’s future performance represent management’s estimates as of today, February 23, 2012. Trina Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future as market conditions change.

For those of you unable to listen to the entire call at this time, a recording will be available via webcast for 90 days at our Investor Relations section of our site at www.trinasolar.com.

And with that, it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Trina Solar’s Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jifan Gao.

Jifan Gao

Thank you, Thomas, and thank you everyone for joining us today. First, I’d like to wish everyone a happy 2012, and a year of (inaudible). Despite a strong demand in our existing and in new country markets, total module capacity and the high inventory levels in this country lower than market price in the fourth quarter.

As our quarterly cost reduction was not sufficient to offset low ASPs, this adversely affected our profitability. During the quarter, our end markets continued to evolve whereas our revenue outside Europe exceeded half of our global total for the first time. We believe this improved geographic sales mix, would position us later to achieve the future growth in both sales and income as cost drops and ASP stabilize.

In 2012, we are encouraged by increasing demand from China and Europe. And the increase in either for our higher value products in Europe as well in emerging markets we are currently working and are preparing for growth.

To differentiate our offerings and plans, we are focused at solid delivery of our innovative and efficient products and the service through enhancing customer value, while improving end-user solution; we are meeting our customers’ needs and are very well positioned to capture future growth opportunities in the PV market.

This solution improved our Honey technology-based modules, which is successful for establishing them (inaudible) of scale. Our System cost saving Trinamount, which has been well received in three companies. Our Packaged design service offerings and other new products to be announced and delivered in 2012. Looking forward, we expect the global solar industry is well poised to experience a long-term growth. We also believe future consolidation of smaller solar companies would occur, which will enhance our position as a top tier manufacturer of higher quality innovative solar products.

We also see evidence of increasing solar demand in new markets less dependent upon government support or utility rate premiums. Solar now compares favorably against other alternatives, such as wind and is below user rates for an increasing number of markets and user categories. We believe this as a positive trend, improved (inaudible) a great opportunity for our company and the solar industry in the future.

Lastly, I wish to highlight our mission today, announced the ISO certification from the British Standards Institute. This achievement is a great declamation of our commitment to leading the PV industry in sustainable development.

With that, I’d like to turn the call to our CFO, Terry Wang, to share our fourth quarter 2011 financial results. Terry?

Terry Wang

Thank you, Mr. Gao, and welcome everyone to our earnings conference call. I’d like to present an overview of our fourth quarter and full year financial results followed by the company’s guidance for the first quarter and the full year of 2012.

Due to the growth of the worldwide module capacity, and peak third quarter inventory levels, the fourth quarter saw a significantly lower product prices. Though our cost came down substantially due to the low cash costs and the inventory walk through, which I will discuss later, reductions were not sufficient enough to offset the fall of ASP in this quarter, which inevitably affect our margin, and adversely affect our bottom line results.

We have achieved in this quarter, record shipment of a 425 megawatt, which exceeded our upper range of guidance by 21%, translated to a total net revenue of $435 million in the fourth quarter, quarter-on-quarter volume increase approximately 16%.

Reflecting market ASP reduction, our gross profit was $31 million, a decrease of approximately 40% from third quarter. The overall gross margin was 7.1% below the company’s previous guidance of approximately 10%. And that will increase the cost control measures taken in the fourth quarter, will incur our 21.6% increase in operating expenses to $93.9 million, which include accounts receivables, provisions of $16.3 million, and a $9.1 million provisions for earlier polysilicon supply prepays, one of which to Nitol Solar.

Excluding this, provisions will be like comparable OpEx to that of the third quarter, also net of provisions despite expanding our local regional sales and marketing operations within the U.S. and China, and in the Middle East and India. Overall, we incur our success to upon managing operating loss in the first quarter compared to the loss of $23.5 million in the third quarter.

Operating margin was negatively 14.4% in the quarter compared to negatively 4.9% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter net currency exchange loss was $4.3 million, whereby I’d expect established hedging programs, 90-day, approximately two third of the tax and euro depreciation against U.S. dollars and RMB in the fourth quarter due to our increased diversification in sales, our Europe denominated revenues decreased substantially to represent a less than full extent of the total sales in fourth quarter.

Our fourth quarter net loss was $65.3 million, which corresponding net margin of negative 16% compared to the third quarter, a loss of $31.5 million. Fourth quarter net loss includes the net foreign currency exchange loss of $4.3 million, it also include again $2.2 million resulting from our repurchase of $9.9 million of our senior convertible note due July 2013.

Earnings per fully diluted ADS were negatively $0.93, which includes the effect of the net foreign currency exchange loss. Despite operating challenges in this quarter, we fundamentally improved several key aspect of balance sheet, which I will touch on next.

Our cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash balance rose approximately $896 million as of December 31 from $733 million in September, while working capital balance decreased to $751 million from $905 million previously.

Due to our strong fourth quarter sales, we reduced our inventory by $85 million to $250 million as of December 31, we also allow a lower, our account receivables by over $103 million to approximately $467 million. As a result, we have a positive operating cash flow of approximately $270 million in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, we further improve our capital structure by reducing our short term debt by $22 million to approximately $289 million, while long term debt increased by $62 million to approximately $520 million.

For our full year 2011 results, total shipments were 1.51 gigawatts, a increase of 42% from 1.0 gigawatts in 2010; and approximately 100 megawatts above our most recent full year guidance.

Year-over-year, total revenue increased by 10.2% to $2.05 billion from $1.86 billions in 2010. For full year 2011, gross profit fall to $332.6 million from $584.4 million in 2010, gross margin was 16.2% compared to 31.5% a year ago.

Operating income for full year 2011 was $31 million compared to $470 million in 2010. Net loss for full year 2011 was $37.8 million compared to net income $31.1 million in 2010. This was primarily due to year-over-year lower average gross margin results from the four ASP combined with the increase in out leading expenses as percentage of net revenue in 2011.

As result of our earnings per fully diluted ADS were negative $0.54 for full year 2011 compared to $4.18 in 2010. Total CapEx for 2011 was approximately $350 million. We’re pleased to know that, in 2011 we significantly increased our R&D expenditure over 2010 to a level approximately 2% of net revenue, believe that the full of the additional investment is represented by our successful commercial delivery of the Honey technology, whose cost structure is almost identical to our non-Honey product lines. This bring us to our guidance for the first quarter, and the fiscal year 2012 as follows.

For the first quarter of 2012, we expect our shipments between 400 megawatts to 440 megawatts. We expect overall gross margin to be around the low-teens in the percentage terms, such guidance is based on the averages of FX rate between euro and U.S. dollars from January 1 to February 23, 2012.

The company expect total PV module shipments of between 2 gigawatts to 2.1 gigawatts for the full year 2012 representing an increase of approximately 32% to 39% from 2011. As announced in our November call to meet respective demand in 2012, we’re increasing our solar module production capacity as a result of ramping up 500 megawatts of new high-efficiency, Honey Technology by beginning of the second quarter of 2012, which perform ahead of schedule compared to our original plan.

Upon completion, we have 2.4 gigawatt of in-house sale to module capacity, while out in-house wafer capacity will remain at 1.2 gigawatts. Based on this, our anticipated 2012 capacity will be around $200 million, of which roughly $150 million is linked to the Honey Technology capacity expansion.

Turning to the cost per watt, our blended over mono and multi non-silicon cost including depreciation decreased to approximately $0.64 per watt from $0.65 in the third quarter. Our silicon costs fell to $0.30 per watt from a $0.37 in the third quarter reflecting our lower cash purchase cost and a walk through our higher cost inventory in the fourth quarter.

For the first quarter of 2012, and forward we expect our silicon costs to fall substantially further as a result of successful inventory walk through in the fourth quarter and from offshore and long-term contracts negotiated in the fourth quarter when market price were well below the current solid levels.

For 2012, we are targeting further reduction of a non-polysilicon cost per watt to below $0.60 to be driven by ongoing streamlined manufacturing supply chain, and solar module efficiency enhancements.

With that, I’ll now like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Mark Kingsley, who will update you on your sales and marketing developments. Mark?

Mark Kingsley

Thank you, Terry, and hello to everyone joining our call today. I admit your gallantry reference, despite the safety trend we pointed to in our Q3 earnings call, resulted in improved demand and sequential shipment increases in the fourth quarter. However, this volume impact was more than offset by greater than anticipated declines in average selling prices.

Price declines were mainly driven by continued imbalance in global manufacturing capacity and the clearing of higher cost inventories in Europe. This impact accelerated, the euro devalued in the quarter, and the re-suppliers liquidating inventories by selling them into ground-mounted projects in Italy.

To address this environment, our energies remain direct at improving our sales mix in the segments we serve. This includes enhancing our commercial capabilities to tools which includes our upgraded CRM platform. These efforts have allowed pretty much to better identify and serve demand within our global sales pipeline, which on a rolling two-month basis is currently sized north of 2 gigawatts.

To improve balance of our growth coming from higher mix segments, our teams continue to broaden this pipeline from a regional geography, sales channel and end user segment basis. Further, we continue to develop regional opportunity pipelines to represent three times the volume of our targeted sales in order to reduce our controllable commercial risk and manage through changes to government incentive scheme.

These efforts are necessary as the industry shakeout continues to bifurcate pricing as witnessed by liquid market participants pricing below replacement costs in order to gather operating cash. This bifurcation was further evidenced in Q4 by an increased number of lower tier players actively marketing third-party 25 year product performance guarantees, either our insurance vehicles which really survived the bankruptcy event.

We expect this bait-and-switch behavior to moderate as the year progresses due to continued industry consolidation and growing demands from financing institutions, off takers and consumers to prefer sustainable company standing behind our technology election.

In addition to the increased geographical diversity shown in our supplemental presentation, our total customers have increased considerably. Starting from Q1 2011, we’ve added approximately 50% more clients over the course of 2011, and this trend continues into Q1.

Outside of Trina’s accelerating growing in China and in the U.S., our Q4 sales reflected our increased penetration in emerging markets such India, Africa and the Middle East where we are pursuing both higher transaction in volume segments as well as large utility skill projects through local partners and through on the ground efforts supported by localized commercial resources.

As a case employment, over the course of Q4, we established a local entity and regional sales office in Abu Dhabi, we localized coverage in India and South Africa, and are currently establishing same in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This follows our recent announcement of the opening of our Asia-Pacific regional sales headquarters in Singapore.

Moving to our focus on raising the performance bar with innovative and high efficient products, our big success story remains Honey. Our new high efficiency multicrystalline based technology, this product line currently delivers upto 260 watt performance and measurable BOS savings.

Our Honey product line was commercially launched in January and represents our most successful new product launch to date, based on customer request. In reaction, our announced build out is running ahead of scheduled as Gary will highlight. We’re also very encouraged by initial customer response to our Trinamount family of rooftop solutions that delivered balance of system cost savings.

This offering has been validated and specified by customers in the U.S., Europe, the U.K. and Australia. In short, Trinamount’s value proposition centered on reducing integration time by approximately 40% is attracted to installers looking to lower systems cost beyond the price of modules, offset FIT reductions, or who are seeking to increase their seasonal installation rates.

As a result of this feedback and demand response, we’re planning to increase its availability and shipments throughout 2012. To better address our growth of customers focused on U.S. commercial rooftops, we also recently announced and launched a three-pronged product service offering that combines our 250 watt Honey module and Trinamount system supported by our in-house demand services.

Other new products that will be launched soon include a high output, 300 watt utility scale module, and a variety of off-grid system modules to expand our current sales into Australia, Africa and Mongolia. 2012 will also see the launch of integrated solution structures, the Trina smart modules, designed to deliver more power and active monitoring as well as enhanced safety. Samples of which have already been sent to customers in our major markets.

Our commercial focus remains squarely aimed at the delivery of new differentiated products designed to lower systems cost both inside and outside of the module. These efforts extend to our recently upgraded installers and base module packaging.

Combining aggregate, we re-iterate our expectation. These new products will account for up to one quarter of our 2012 shipments. We also believe that these market-driven products present opportunity for Trina Solar to gain sustainable market share and attractive high margin channels.

Beyond new products, and as we described in our third quarter earnings call, we successfully re-directed sales channels in Italy away from the higher-risk ground-mount segment to a residential commercial rooftop focus. This design reduces our exposures to projects with a relatively high risk for grid-connection.

Related to this shift, we are excited to have recently announced our Made in EU certification, whereby our multi-crystalline modules have been certified by the Independent Italian Institute, ICIM and fulfill GSE requirements for a 10% feed-in tariff premium in Italy.

Before turning the call to Gary, I’d like to touch on the U.S. and then China, two key growth markets in 2012, and beyond. In the United States, we continue to grow our customer base and footprint to growing a number of applications there. Stemming from the 1063 cash incentive program, we saw increased demand in sales in fourth quarter, which have robustly continued into this year. We are also working closely with these customers through this period to meet potential impacts from current trade investigations. But we’re limited to discuss specifics at this time, we continue to execute upon solutions that would minimally interrupt our North American customer’s operations.

For the China market, we are increasingly positive on the prospects for 2012; as evidenced by the project pipelines of our customers, and the opportunities we have under discussion. To meet this opportunity, we continue to ramp up our country efforts on a variety of levels, of which I’m to update.

In addition to our Beijing, Shanghai, and Changzhou offices, we have added sales and project development coverage in China’s Northwest region, where favorable irradiance and project feed-in tariff can yield attractive solar economics.

In conjunction, we are leveraging our proven downstream capabilities to add value to our existing and targeted domestic EPC and state-owned enterprise project developers.

An exciting aspect of China’s, PV market growth is a variety of end-project applications at or approaching critical mass, which include ground-mount, rooftop and off-grid, all of which we’re addressing in 2011 with our new product lines.

Finally, to update our brand promotion and CSR initiatives, last week we held an event with Patrick Dempsey, who serves as our solar ambassador for photovoltaic adoption. The event’s objective was to link key government and labor leaders in California with Trina Solar’s industry leading development partners. Our aim here was to accelerate a public private partnerships required to extend the use of solar on American rooftop, and as an outcome also create more American solar jobs.

In fact, we believe it takes more than technical differentiation like Honey to expand the product, it also takes commercial innovations which this event address. This event followed a recently produced 15 minute promotional video wherein Patrick Dempsey addresses the increasing affordability and positive effects for residential and office use of solar. This video is posted on Trina Solar’s website.

In conclusion, we wish to also update our increasingly recognized EH efforts and commitments. Most recently, in October, we were very pleased to receive the ISO 14064-1:2006 verification statement from the British Standards Institution, BSI. It’s a systematic methodology to quantify and report green house gas related information in accordance with ISO’s rigorous international requirements.

We believe we’re the first of our peers to have officially received this verification, which compliments our existing EHS and CSR asset, which include Trina Solar’s inaugural, sustainable development report, which can be downloaded on our homepage. We feel differentiating around how we treat the environment is a key differentiator for lot of other players in our space.

With that, I will now pass the call over to Gary.

Gary Yu

Thank you, Mark, and hello to everyone present. I’m happy to share with you our fourth quarter manufacturing update, and the current developments, and finally follow-up in the – follow up on going cost reduction.

In the fourth quarter, we completed construction on our PV Park facility R&D Lab and the major implement moving in stages in December. The facility had a rented solar cell modules, and module cost solution development in a different process, and both are strong compared to our current traded R&D facility. This comprehensive facility is also the new and larger part of the recognized R&D and material testing labs, and a way to provide standard technique trade volumes to faster and a safer product line new material and the technology to leverage product performance and a lower total system cost.

In the first quarter, also in the operation of our new North East Campus facility, the home of our Honey manufacturing line initial production of our high efficient Honey sales commenced in December, which was started by our former commercial production in January.

As I mentioned in previous calls, these multicrystalline based technology was developed in parallel with separate multi-technology corporation, due to ability to deliver commercially and successfully over shorter time line, while delivering cost structure nearly identical to non-Honey product line. Having (inaudible) we already predict to update that we are now ahead of schedule in our budget tax 2011 is ahead of schedule. With the 300 megawatt ahead of the current and interest rate and financially effected by March 31.

You see this in addition to our 2011 achievements substantially increase to 1.2 gigawatt of ingot wafer and a 1.9 gigawatt of same module capacity. To the amount as our in-house developed Honey technology evolved, and laid possibly intense mix. We have included only to that facility in this initial days, so to achieve our initial types of market on that as a cost target.

The envelop through this initial we have additional purchase and to be incorporated to extend offered to our presence, including those involved with September announcement involving the DOE tax output of 174 watt for 1.6 millimeter thick module.

To our rather new product, beyond the commercial launch of our Trinamount, we are working closely with our technology department and the product development and product development for customers try of effect of our solutions over, including the new Trinamount module and they’re not a highlight.

Moving to our silicon cost reduction, in the fourth quarter we were pleased to further lower our cost which is now at a supplementary 30% per watt. Ongoing improvement was measured supply chain and the negotiation, module efficiency increases and the continued lean manufacturing initiative.

We will continue attention to cost reduction capabilities, with which we believe that as a point, we expect to first lower our non-silicon cost structure in 2012, we believe, in order to delivering premiums regulated at a minimum cost depreciation for industry leading spend up such as our Honey module. Beyond technology and products or nearly as a extreme area, we have said back that of all the share cost, to lower unit of cost through extension of lower specification or less capacity.

With that, I’ll turn the call back to Thomas for Q&A. Thomas?

Thomas Young

Okay. Thank you and as always we would ask, we have a good amount of analysts I am sure with us tonight. And we would like to keep at a limited, maybe to one question and one or two follow-ups, okay. And operator, you may proceed.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Vishal Shah from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Hi, this is (inaudible) for Vishal Shah. Thank you for taking my questions. I was just – it’s a hard click. I was wondering what kind of ASP declines are you expecting in the first quarter, and then what about the linearity for 2012 shipments. How much do we expect in the first half versus the second half and what gives you confidence that you will be able to ship that quantity in the second half? Thank you.

Terry Wang

Yeah, this is Terry. We had done quite a few substantial forecast for the year, and we have given guidance for the fourth quarter between 400 and 430. So this year, in order to reach 2 gigawatts, 2.1 and roughly the, you have increase substantially quarter-over-quarter and that gave us the confidence to give in current situation that the second half of the year that we have a different types of regions, market, at U.S. and China and major market that will give us a boost in terms of shipment.

But in this key area and we take some of the conservation and the dumping on the subsidies from U.S. also the German feed-in tariffs was cut into conservation and then China and India are emerging market. So we think that the pricing continues to fall and average basis should be for the year could be below (inaudible) high 80s that we’re averaging. And, but I think that our cost will be, with the delivery of Honey and with the cost structure in our product, one side that we can have this has been to our ASP decline, but at the same time, our cost continue to fall, so expecting high margin expansion quarter-over-quarter for the year.

Mark Kingsley

Terry, I would just add, it’s Mark, Vishal. I think again as Terry said, we haven’t really gotten legs in these Honey, it's ramping well, but we’ll have more Honey sales as we go through the year. As we said, our target is 25% of sales from new products that go into these higher margin segments we haven't been in. And again, we’ve had good luck and get excited for some of the geographic distribution. We do see demand outside of Europe that is picking up.

Unidentified Analyst

All right, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Dougherty from Macquarie. Your line is open.

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Just wanted to talk about the U.S. situation a bit. I saw the provision for the quarter. Just wondering if you can give us an update on where you think things stand, even from a retroactivity standpoint. And what kind of magnitude for the tariff you assumed when you took that charge?

Terry Wang

Yeah, we take the current environment of the U.S. policy against the Chinese module maker into our forecast on our ASP side, and the penalty on the shipment side. So from the cost side, actually we’re taking into consideration just regularly any subsidies penalty back to the December timeframe and now of course for the quarter. So have a provision on that to hopefully can include or consider or cover that area.

In terms of the shipment, and last year we had shipment on the road, and to the new year to this quarter and was locking approximately 120 megawatt into this quarter's shipment to U.S. So that would take value into consideration. But going forward second quarter, third quarter and we are still giving our top line, but also we have taken consideration that impact from the dumping these subsidies, we selected it and to choose the customer who have a panel with us and we have some solution for them to build up our solution and around our delivery from overseas to them so that which include outsourcing other alternatives so we can lock to meet our target for the year in U.S. market.

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay, thanks. I’m sorry. Just a quick clarification, the 120 megawatts did you say you ship that into the U.S. in the fourth quarter?

Terry Wang

It’s in the, we’re locking with the contract and some of it being shipped out, some of it being because we didn’t lessen our revenue until the customer received. So that’s pretty much secure at least the 120 megawatts in U.S. for this quarter and we will have up side and continue to built that and sell to more to our customer in this quarter.

Mark Kingsley

I would say that all of those U.S. shipments were tied to specific sectional preorders and we are completing those.

Terry Wang

Yeah.

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay. And then if a 120 megawatts in the fourth quarter, how much into the U.S. do you think for the full year of that 2 gigawatts or so that you expect in 2012?

Terry Wang

Basically, we’re targeting a double-digit of market share U.S. So we think that in this year, U.S. market size is approximately over 3 gigawatts, 3 or 5.5 gigawatts so that we’re targeting market share amount.

Mark Kingsley

So I look at it and we will, as Terry mentioned we are working a number and executing a number of solutions, well serve the market and our goal is 500 in the U.S..

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Okay, great thanks. And then just a quick one on OpEx, so Trina obviously has an advantage when it comes to manufacturing cost, but for operating expenses do you tend to be higher, maybe done something with your peers sometimes, but can you give us a sense of maybe a quarterly OpEx runrate for 2012? And maybe where you have leveraged from an operating side like as you open your markets there will be cost associated with that. But where can you leverage or reduce OpEx this year?

Mark Kingsley

Okay. Dollar term wise OpEx and you can see the third quarter and fourth quarter relatively, if we’re taking the provisioning out, it’s a middle 60 million, relatively flat and this year and there were in a controlled dollar term but expecting from a quarter basis, percentage of revenue will be declined and from a current, mid-teen stand to lower teens if you can, quarter-over-quarter by year-end. So I think that controlling total amount of OpEx is one of the key strategy for us to maintain our competitiveness in not just the cost area but also operating expenses there.

Kelly Dougherty – Macquarie Research Equities

Thank you very much guys.

Mark Kingsley

Thank you, Kelly.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sanjay Shrestha from Lazard Capital Market. Your line is open.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

(Inaudible).

Thomas Young

Hi, Sanjay, this is Thomas. Your voice is very muted, could you speak up please.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Oh absolutely.

Thomas Young

We can’t make you out here.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Hope, its better. Yeah, so in this 2 gigawatt to 2.1 gigawatt of shipments in full-year 2012, right, how are you guys thinking about the geographic distribution of that obviously it’s a 500 megawatt U.S. but what do you think, if upon that shipments that go in terms of the market exposure for you guys?

Thomas Young

Yeah. Now I think what we can probably give you with accuracy is directionally where we see that, fundamentally what we do, we still see we stay committed to the U.S. market and working solutions around that due to the facility growth there. But you will see a lift, really it’s going to be rest of the world and China driven, is where we’ll see a shift in the geography and where we are selling into. China as a market, we think it’s a slightly go up market and present nice opportunity. And as said, we’ve been gaining traction in India, the Middle East and Africa. So those historical haven’t been the main drivers of the growth and we see shift in that geographic footprint.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

I wonder you guys are sort of handicapping the solution as to what works versus what this module in terms of this is what I talk about the imposing tariff in U.S. right. And how are you also planning in an event that was having asset type in Germany sometime in April, I think those results where not and take what it actually comes out of that, how are you guys handicapping this two potentially really big positive changes that will happen in some of the key markets?

Thomas Young

Sanjay, I apologize, this is Thomas again perhaps you could repeat it in a – maybe in less world and bit a little louder and again apologies where we are really challenged here to understand you.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Perfect, let me try to speak louder. How are you guys, handicapping what happens to the policy situation in Germany and how are you planning for you allocation in that market and when you guys, as you’re working on solution to deal with this tariff situation in U.S., what would that look like. Can you give us a sense as to how do you expect to avoid…

Terry Wang

I’ll break, so let me break that into Germany answer and U.S. answer. There has been no surprise that governments are under pressure in Europe and that FIT reductions were coming, I think solar industry that was happened twice as fast. But what we’ve been doing and we mentioned is really looking at how do we reduce system economics for the solar players. The installation just no longer exists, where they’re going utility, commercial and capital residential that’s going to shift. The reason we are very focused on developing a high efficiency platform that was multi based, so that it could have a good cost footprint but also high efficiency (inaudible) visa-a-via you treat amount, which is about installation, productivity and labor costs, reasonable packaging as to help the residential installer, using this smart module as to get more power out of space.

So our view in Germany there is still growth in Germany but it really, this is FIT reduction forces people to address total system value. And so it remained and seemed to be exactly how it developed, it was announced today. But we’re doing channel checks and we think that what we control is a product (inaudible), that’s what we are focused on.

For the U.S. market as we said in our script, we’re not going to comment on our specific solutions but we’re executing in that range of out sourcing and other opportunities to make sure we have supply and focus it on our key customer partners. We remained very committed to the market, we remained committed to finding solutions around various tariff schemes and we look forward to participating on the market to the year.

Sanjay Shrestha – Lazard Capital Markets

Okay. That’s fair enough. Thanks guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of (inaudible) your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. My first question is, for 2012 that 2 gigawatt guidance you have given, could you give us some color like from which market what you’re expecting or let’s say 5.5 gigawatt from U.S. powered by the markets?

Terry Wang

Yeah. Again I think what we’ve given is, we’ve given an outlook for Q4 which was a volatility in solar market, is the one that we want to stand by, we have a very good line of sight. As we look across the year, it’s – directionally the answer is you may see a pick up in growth from emerging regions, you’re going to see growth in the U.S. and that will balance our portfolio.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. Could you also give little bit of color like, what type of revenue run rate you will be looking at in order to break-even or shipment run rate, any sort of color on that side?

Terry Wang

Yes. And this is Terry. In break-even point and if you take that we will be targeting lower teens OpEx as percentage revenues and we only have ballparks in the 10 million interest expense.

So when we need about mid teens of break-even in gross margin. So that’s what we’re looking for mid teens, some point on this year the breakeven. And also we have other things like downstream project and total solution that will give us top revenue with expanding our margin contribution. So that give us additional break-even upside, so that’s why we think that in terms of volume shipments we can see – we have a provision that give us quite a bit loss in asking, but when we do operation and with the new Honey product online, so we have a large and turnkey and demand in gaining more market share so that we will have a more gross profit, so that’s – it will give us more room to gain profit.

Unidentified Analyst

Thank you.

Terry Wang

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Ries from Collins Stewart. Your line is open.

Daniel Ries – Collins Stewart Llc

Hi. I think China grows to 18% of your revenues or volumes in the fourth quarter, what would you expect China to account for 2012 of your 2 gigawatts plus shipments?

Terry Wang

You are asking that China in terms of percentage of total break-down of 2.0 gigawatts, break-down?

Daniel Ries – Collins Stewart Llc

Yes.

Terry Wang

So I think that as Mark mentioned, that are more diversified this year versus last year, and last year we have a little concentrate in Europe, and but this year a little bit different, in China we are expecting and the market size to grow up to 5 gigawatts. So we were at least targeting double digit market sharing in China. And we have approximately 500 megawatts in North America and Europe we continue to be strong and any markets in Europe in Germany. So and I think China is going to be a big market for us, and given current forecast and top line we’re pretty confident.

Mark Kingsley

We started with a 10% work, that’s what we’re looking for, but as Terry alluded to the pipeline, and the discussions going on in China are actually a bright spot in solar, and so that’s raising, and as we look at it basically, we see the geography being more back-end loaded for China, but it is encouraging.

Daniel Ries – Collins Stewart Llc

And how would China price roughly compared to your average EBITDA, 3% below 5% below equal to the average?

Mark Kingsley

I think we always have pressure in China based on the fact that the peers that are in need of cash find China very attractive because they can get their cash quickly. So it always puts pressure on China, but like you see in other markets, people go through that, they are getting the experience and then all of a sudden they fly up (inaudible) because they need projects that are actually functioning and working.

So we do see China having a lower price, but it’s compared with things that you see sometimes in even spot projects in Italy. So it’s not just China. Here we can still make money in China. We just have to be selective about who we work with.

Daniel Ries – Collins Stewart Llc

Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Satya Kumar from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Brandon Heiken – Credit Suisse

Brandon Heiken speaking on behalf of Satya Kumar. First question was about polysilicon costs, it looks like your $0.31 in silicon costs in the fourth quarter, and I know that you’ve re-negotiated some contracts. So was hoping you could talk about where those poly costs could go, and also I wanted to clarify some things I think you mentioned that there is an operating cash flow, positive cash flow of $270 million in the fourth quarter. I was wondering where that might go, and also I was hoping to clarify the CapEx did you say $200 million for 2012. Thanks.

Mark Kingsley

Okay, two questions. Number one for the poly costs, approximately $0.30 per watt is translated to approximately about $45 range and kilo. That’s the average, that include the inventory royalty carried through from the third quarter that pushes the price that we had, a much lower in spot rate and (inaudible) what we would have it.

And that price – that half will pass through and in our second, but at the end of the years the inventory, and the inventory, so – and this quarter the poly and we do see and the poly cost would drop drastically due to the fact that we had aggressively and pushes the program run with our long-term partner of poly. So that price will drop very, is actually more than ASP drop and comes off the our forecast that’s poly that's the area we are again, our cost advantages in that area. And also the long-term contract supply we negotiated prices as to the market rate.

So that's successful, for our operating cash that we generate $270 million in the one quarter, which is driven by aggressively attracting enough accounts from the customer and major accounts that contribute to our cash traction, and also the inventory coming down and accounts receivables, accounts payables base is getting longer because we had supply agreement with our Australian supplier so that give us some new way to have as we move into customers who have such a big positive operating cash that generate an entire year for 2012, for 2011, we come up with the positive operating cash flow.

In the CapEx, $200 million CapEx which include most of the – and driven by our Honey 500 megawatts Honey capacity expansion and which is about $150 million and we watch out carefully and in terms of return of those investment, we well adjust it and for those CapEx expense.

Brandon Heiken – Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Mark Kingsley

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lu Yeung from UBS. Your line is open.

Lu Yeung – UBS Securities

Thanks for taking my questions. Have you looked at the alternatives of using outsourcing partners outside of China such as Taiwan and Korea or whether you have done any studies showing what kind of cost essential you can premium on that versus the potential and high income duty from U.S.

Mark Kingsley

Yeah, I mean the number one, you see we have a 1.2 gigawatts of wafer and we’ll achieve 2.4 gigawatt sale on module, plus 60% outsourcing wafer that’s in building the model to support our customer. And also again on the U.S. and dumping policy change that we actually plan and strategically working with our partners in overseas for those outsourcing and fair amount of sale in the wafer module sale. So and going forward and beyond and some times this year and also we are planning alternatively setting up the manufacturing in overseas and then selecting the locations to plan, we have to start support our customer needs and so I think the cost advantages by setting up the facilities overseas in different locations, but we right now still in the process.

Lu Yeung – UBS Securities

Have you studied how much more expensive to do that overseas then the current cost structure in China?

Terry Wang

The pretty much of the, of course I have a cost premium on top of that when compared to Chinese facilities, but we do form some area that have advantageous and cost in some area, and also either they have a large advantages lands and the manufacture facilities and also next to the market those types of things that we put plea into a conservation. So in general could be $0.10 higher or high teen higher, but look this way if U.S. market and the penalty to Chinese module maker, so we already talked to get the feedback from a customer, the ASP actually gone up right in the U.S. markets so we can study with the higher ASP for those cost premiums.

Mark Kingsley

Yeah, I would just say, project economics still work and are this profitable as they work for our customers so it does slowdown some demand, but projects will continue. As Terry referenced, we stay very connected to the U.S. market and we will find ways to supply our key customers, but it – remember cost had came down so steeply last year that many big project economies were baked at higher prices so they still work, it’s about getting supply an alternative supply.

Unidentified Analyst

So how will Honey fit into this new strategy or new alternatives into the U.S.?

Mark Kingsley

Well, I mean Honey is obviously a cell based technology and certain segments were still, it depends upon what the tariff scheme is, we still be able to serve certain market and certain segment with our current capacity. And as we go forward as Terry mentioned we will make an assessment of what we manufacture in China, what we manufacture outside of China.

Unidentified Analyst

I see thank you very much.

Terry Wang

Thank you Lu Yeung

Operator

Your next question comes from the line Ramesh Misra from Brigantine Advisors. Your line is open.

Ramesh Misra – Brigantine Advisors

Good evening, guys. In regards to your CapEx, but you comment about raising Honey capacity to 500 megawatts by Q1, are you saying that your CapEx commitment is going to be pretty much front-end loaded and most of that $200 million is basically going to be spent in the first half year?

Terry Wang

Yeah, pretty much front-loaded, but the capacity when you ramp up you still have some of the payment you will be – and still leads for few quarter, but I think that’s front-loaded, but we’ll sure have some payment to be paid in the second half.

Mark Kingsley

And I think Honey as we look at it is a product that you can extract value from all markets people like efficiency actually easy product to move to different geographies.

Ramesh Misra – Brigantine Advisors

Okay. And just briefly, what kind of pricing premium do you anticipate Honey being able to garner from the market? Thanks.

Terry Wang

What we’ve seen so far is 10%.

Mark Kingsley

Ramesh, are you still there?

Ramesh Misra – Brigantine Advisors

Yes. That's it, thanks very much.

Mark Kingsley

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Hari Chandra from Auriga USA. Your line is open.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

Can you collaborate on the channel inventory that you mentioned about how much do you estimate is there in the pipeline, and also do you have that a gap in terms of the utilization level such tier 1 players?

Mark Kingsley

I’ll answer the first part of that and the second part is an estimate. And before, what we realized is this, we’ve been in an environment of changing rules and changing demand. So response to that was to actually overbuild pipeline of opportunities. So that we get re-direct example of that was the re-direct we did in the fourth quarter from Trinamount to other geographies and we continue to do that.

Right now if you look at our, as I said three month rolling forecast of opportunities identified it’s over 2 gigawatt, we obviously expect significant breakage on that, as rules changing as re-direct the opportunities we want to serve. But that’s really our approach, what we control is how much we identify what our coverage brings to us to help make our quarters. We don't control what happened to the German FIT or what happened to U.S. dumping, we can’t influence that. Regarding capacity utilization at the tiers, I haven’t looked at it recently to give you a qualified answer.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

I was looking at the channel inventory more from a standpoint of, how much inventory do you think is in pipeline?

Mark Kingsley

I think there was – it was cleaned out, Europe had that overhang at the end of Q3, I think that was cleaned out as you saw the price increasing in Europe as people are trying to anticipate this FIT reduction. There was a quest for inventory in Europe and quest for orders; you saw that had been cleaned out. So I felt that was positive as we started the year.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

And a follow-up, in terms of the industry consolidation, what we’ve seen is primarily outside China because of the supply side flag that is there from China. Is there any policy change or is there any policy that is in the pipeline from the banks or from a political standpoint to address it on the supply side or alternatively on the demand side, would 5 gigawatt be enough to offset the dislocation being seen in Germany and elsewhere, if not, would that be going to somewhere to 7 gigawatts to 8 gigawatts this year, addressing the diverse from the supply side or from the demand side?

Terry Wang

I think that the demand and supply, you can see as the channel change with the inventory and throughout last year and overcapacity become – it’s already been a few quarters already. And the pricing drop is because of that. And I think that in an industry like this, consolidation can start to come to people’s eye and view, but we do see some – the companies in China or some of the company overseas are looking for opportunities or partner share for acquisition activities coming to on a plate.

And we're right now open to it to see where are those opportunities out there, I mean I’d also assume some of that accompanied with the – we have a relatively strong balance sheet in our competency, in our cost structure, in technology area and we have a synergy, and now we’re looking at different synergy so that add value to our company, and for the future growth.

So that’s an area we’re looking, but keep out eyes open and analyze the potential opportunities, looking for opportunities, but we haven’t got anything on our plates yet. But make sure when we do that, we got to be careful to have a solid foundation to support us in synergy, and so that return on the investment will be justified.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

I think the question was more from a straight policy standpoint in terms of addressing the supply side issue or from a demand side issue in terms of China as a sovereign policy?

Mark Kingsley

Yeah, I think as we look at it, a lot of the solar players are fairly local and locally supported. And what Mr. Gao said in previous calls as well is we don’t see a ton of forced consolidation. What we see is more of companies stopping doing business, and asset sales. This does not preclude anything, but by majority we see that. We also do it outside of China, obviously, we’ve seen announcement by players in Korea and elsewhere that they are withdrawing from their plans to aggressively on the solar. So in China in general, there have been more than 50 companies that stop making solar and we expect some of that to continue.

Terry Wang

And let me add one more thing, just because we are banking in China. Because in China we do see, even it has not forced the consolidation environment, but from banking, financing point of view, we do see the banking, the mutual banks are very cautious about this industry and especially against those smaller and not without or any core competency companies small size and actually constrained in their own financing activities. But the bank the bank also very selectively and towards this industry to see what the company like us with a solid balance sheet and the continue support us and for the company – large company who had relatively high leverage and the pretty the – and we have our risk management team to view very carefully.

But in our case, I think we have one of the best balance sheet in the industry and we get positive support looking at the banks facility. We now do have more than $500 million bank facility not being used, but we will use that very carefully and in terms of our capacity expansion strategy for other area and based on the – maximize our – optimize our cost structure, and not – to continue to control our cost structure of the balance sheet.

Terry Wang

I would add, let me just add that Mr. Gao and the team here, we’ve been looking at a shake out for the last several quarters and it has driven us to be very careful about whom we work with and I think that’s a part of our strategy.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

The last question on the cost structure issues, you talked about the non-silicon cost exiting the year less than $0.60, and then you have renegotiated contracts for poly, so there the cost also would come down, but still that would get you to just about breakeven or making a little money out there. So my question is more in terms of what is the longer term of roadmap for cost structure where we’ll be viable entity even as prices are coming down and not just Trina, it’s just across the industry?

Terry Wang

Industry-wise we had experienced big drops of price in poly during the fourth quarter and beginning of this quarter and come down to approximately $25 per kilo and versus last quarter average. And we do see approximately more than $0.30 or $0.40 drop that's what I said, in quarter basis that the poly price drop faster than ASP drop. And but going forward we see a relatively stabilize in poly pricing in the market. But we don't rule out once in a while from time to time because of the demand of rebounds to some degree and come down again because at end of the day poly supply there’s still overcapacity in this market. We do see long range that poly price this year continue to fall, but from this point on relatively stabilized, up and down from time to time.

Hari Chandra Polavarapu – Auriga USA

Thank you.

Mark Kingsley

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Philip Shen from Roth Capital Partner. Your line is open.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.

Mark Kingsley

Hi, Phil.

Thomas Young

Hi, Phil.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Hey, Thomas. My first question is related to the U.S., the U.S. shipments in Q4, what percentage of the shipments do you import with Trina or did Trina sub as the import of record?

Mark Kingsley

Roughly, it’s about – it was about 50-50 it’s what we did.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Okay.

Mark Kingsley

As we did, as looked at those shipments.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

And going forward, do you expect that next to continue or and what are your thoughts there?

Mark Kingsley

I think again as we go forward we had initially pre loaded some orders that based on our interpretation, but when likely events would happen on CVD and antidumping. Going forward as Terry mentioned and I mentioned, we’re looking at alternatives that wouldn't be subject to those duties.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Great. And can you give us a sense for how you guys estimated the $3.3 million provision for potential countervailing duties?

Gary Yu

That's related to our U.S. anti-subsidies penalties. We were looking at when they released the March 90, and talk about potentially 90 days retroactively penalty. So we accrue a $2.3 million and from the date December 20, the shipments after this December 20 before end of the year. So that's approximately 10-days shipment. And we accrue for that because I think that might figure some of the penalty on that anti-subsidies.

Terry Wang

And we made a continued effort because of the Christmas holidays getting into the ports in Los Angeles to get product in before the 20th.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Right. And when you make your estimate you have to assign some degree of or some estimate what the tariff level is. How do you guys go about determining what the tariff level was?

Terry Wang

Yeah, we talk with our attorney in the U.S., in Washington DC and those anti-subsidies in terms of the item-wise and total add-up. They give us a range approximally about 8% so that we use that as percentage into accrue a provision for that.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Great. That’s helpful. And then one last one here. In terms of the ASPs in U.S. how do they compare versus your average ASP?

Mark Kingsley

We think the U.S. market is big, what we like about the U.S. market is, the customers are fairly conservative about who they will buy for. They want a company that has a good balance sheet, as Terry mentioned. They have high demand for quality and performance guarantees. And so again, as we think the U.S. market is attractive and the prices are attractive as you compare it globally.

Terry Wang

Yeah, again, that’s because of the anti-subsidies and we do – when we talk to our customers, because of the Chinese module player being penalized, so the ASP, but you have to – the U.S. customer would have to buy the module with a high price without the tradeoffs such that we can sell relatively high ASP, above average. So we have a pricing permit on top of that.

Philip Shen – Roth Capital Partners LLC

Thanks Terry. Thanks very much.

Terry Wang

Thank you.

Operator

Your final question comes from Ahmar Zaman from Piper Jaffray. Your line is open.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Hi, Mr. Gao and Mr. Wang, this is Karen calling on behalf of Ahmar. Thanks for taking my question.

Terry Wang

Hello.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

I was just wondering your ASP expectation for 2012 in the range of high $0.80 to $0.90, does that already include your expected 10% premium by selling the Honey modules and other new products? Thank you.

Terry Wang

Yes that we included because we wanted to plan the forecast conservatively, so that we can have bottom line, we can have profitability. So that’s why included the Honey average because remember we have 500 megawatt and 2.4 gigawatt total capacity. So that will take about the whatever, [25] range. So that’s the average, that’s a high $0.80 for the year. And I think that some of the area we are in, ASP even lower, low $0.80, but that's our over-year average. And I think if the ASP trend continues to fall quarter-over-quarter, so that give us a challenge in our cost structure continues to fall quarter-over-quarter, that’s the way we would plan to do it.

Mark Kingsley

I would say, as Terry said, the experience last year said that we should be conservative in our planning. So we’ve been conservative. As we work to ramp more Honey, we ramp more Trinamount into the mix every year. We hope to improve on that, but it’s the right stance we should take, given past experience.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Okay, thank you. And then, can you also talk about the breakdown of your modules from your internal cell and wafers versus third party purchases for 2012? Do you have an estimate for that yet?

Terry Wang

Currently we do have outsource cell early days last year and when we ramped up the capacity from this point on, most of the outsource come from the wafer. And wafer the good thing right now, relatively, the price we purchase in market outsourcing versus ourselves, relatively similar.

So that outsourced wafer doesn’t give us cost coming on top of that. And cell side we, in order to meet our customers for high efficiency and given, currently, our customer want, we do have some outsourced cell for high efficiency, but before we deliver our Honey product in market place. But once it's done, we think we'll pretty much supply ourselves with Honey for high efficiency sale, with that outsourced cell we have the (inaudible) decline.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Okay. And one more, thank you. I understand that you're using the higher efficiency wafers for your Honey products. As you ramp up your capacity and sales for these higher efficiency products, are you also thinking about upgrading your internal wafer furnaces to be able to keep on do this internally?

Gary Yu

Initially we also have our internal upgradable wafer and testing, which means we take more and more high efficiency cells from our internal high efficiency wafer. And from an operating point of view the wafer, the major issues include our cell efficiency, mostly important for our Honey technology; it's based on our cell and the module. And just a bit comes from our wafer quality. Thank you.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Okay, so you confirm you have already started upgrading your wafer furnaces?

Gary Yu

Yes, yes.

Mark Kingsley

We’ve been doing that internally, is what Gary was saying. Yes, we didn't need to buy outside equipment; we have our own internal upgrades that drive the efficiency we need. Yeah.

Karen Tai – Piper Jaffray

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thomas Young

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Thomas Young for closing remarks.

Thomas Young

Okay. And on behalf of our entire Trina Solar management team, we want to thank you for your participation on this call. And if you’re interested to visit us at our PV Park, here in Changzhou. Please drop us a note. So this formally concludes Trina Solar's fourth quarter 2011 earnings conference call. Thank you operator. You may now please disconnect.

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