Diagnostic Firm Leads Health Dogs With 90.5% Upside & 91% Gain In February

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Includes: ABBV, ANTM, AZN, GSK, HLS, INVA, KND, LLY, PDLI, PETS, PFE, SEM, SNY, TEVA, TRIB, VIVO
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

Ten Healthcare dividend dogs averaged 4.94% yield and charged bullishly after January while Dow dogs mixed up.

Thirty top Healthcare equities ranged in yield from 1.92% to 6.85% as of February 15. Tops were VIVO, PFE, SNY, ABBV, PETS, AZN, SEM, KND, GSK, & PDLI.

Analyst 1yr. targets showed ten top price upsides averaging 51.20% and net gains averaging 53.09%. Thirty Health Dogs averaged 39.3% upsides and 21.872% net gains as of February 15.

Analysts projected 1yr. net gains of 35% to 91% for TEVA, LYS, SNY, HLS, ANTM, ABBV, KND, SEM, PDLI, & TRIB (the top diagnostic).

$5k invested in the lowest priced five of ten top yield healthcare sector dividend stocks showed 14.62% more returns than $5k in all ten said analysts.

Healthcare SML Dog Check Up

Yield (dividend / price) results from here verified by Yahoo Finance were calculated as of February 15, 2016 for Small, Mid, & Large cap Technology stocks. Small cap firms were valued at $200M(illion) to $2B(illion); Mid cap firms were worth $2B to $10B; Large caps were valued above $10B. Those yield results led to the actionable conclusions discussed below.

Fifty Got Ready To Go

Since late 2011 this report series has applied dog dividend methodology to uncover possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes). In the past two years the series expanded to report (1) dividend yield; (2) price upside; (3) net gain results based on analyst 1 yr. target projections.

This article intended to reveal bargain stocks to buy and hold up to one year. See Dow 30 article for explanation of the term "dogs" for stocks reported based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), now named Dogs of the Dow. O'Higgins system works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates expanded the stock universe to include popular growth equities, as desired.

Dog Metrics Sorted Healthcare Stocks by Yield

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Actionable Conclusion (1): A Biotechnology Firm Is Tops by Yield, While Drug Makers Are In The Majority

Top ten healthcare sector dogs showing the biggest dividend yields by this screen as of February 15 represented six industries: (1) biotechnology; (2) drug manufacturers - major; (3) long-term care facilities; (4) hospitals; (5) drug delivery; (6) diagnostic substances.

Top healthcare sector stock by yield was a biotechnology firm, PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:PDLI) [1]. The best of four drug manufacturers - major placed second, GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE:GSK) [2]; The other three drug manufacturers found themselves in fifth, and seventh through ninth places: AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) [5], AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) [7], Sanofi SA (NYSE:SNY) [8], & Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) [9].

One long-term care facility concern placed third, Kindred Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:KND) [3]. A hospital group placed fourth, Select Medical Holdings Corporation [4]. Finally, The single drug delivery firm placed sixth, PetMed Express (NASDAQ:PETS) [6], and a single diagnostic substances firm took tenth , Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (NASDAQ:VIVO) [10], to complete the top ten February healthcare dogs by yield.

Healthcare Dividend vs. Price Moves Contrasted With Dow Dogs

Graphs below compared relative strengths of the top ten healthcare sector dogs by yield as of market close 2/15/2016 with those of the Dow industrials index. Annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks made the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

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Actionable Conclusions: (2) Healthcare Dogs Charged Bullishly As (3) Dow Dogs Mixed Up Into February

The Healthcare collection of dividend payers discontinued their bearish ways after January as dividend plummeted while price soared. Aggregate dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten healthcare dogs dropped nearly 22% after January while their single share price soared 14.5%, to send the bullish signal.

In contrast, Dow dogs mixed up as their dividend jumped along with price for the period. Projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten rose 5.3%. At the same time, aggregate single share price popped 3.4% to confirm the Dow mixed up move.

The Dow dogs' overbought condition (in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten) changed a little to the lesser side.

[I invite you to sign on to my premium site, The Dividend Dog Catcher, to share my discussion about how the Dow (short of tossing out IBM) could, in one move, return to a normal balance where dividends from 10 $1k investments can again exceed the aggregate single share price of those top ten stocks.]

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Actionable Conclusion (4): Dow Dogs Stay Overbought

The overhang was $388 or 102% in March; shrank back to $291 or 79% for April; widened to $320 or 90% to begin May; soared to the new record $406 or 112% in June.

The Dow bubble deflated as Dupont replaced IBM in the ten slot of the top ten for July to peg the gap at $269 or 71%, then inflated again as IBM replaced Pfizer to widen the gap to $331 or 85% for August. September brought some sanity back to the runaway Dow when the gap stood at $279 or 67%. October increases in price by CVX and XOM pushed the gap to $334 or 85%.

November changed out MCD for WMT, and GE for KO. The resulting price over dividend gap went to $303 or 78%. As of December 4 the gap stood at $294 or 75%. Come January 12, prices of the ten Dow top dogs fell, and dividends rose, as Boeing replaced General Electric to reduce the overbought gap to $215 or 53%. February moves put the gap at $214 or 50% February 12.

This gap between high share price and low dividend per $1k invested defines the Dow over-bought condition. Meaning these are low risk and low opportunity Dow dog stocks. The Dow top ten average price per dollar of annual dividend as of 2/12/16 was $22.97.

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Conversely, the healthcare dog chart shows them to be higher risk but prime potential healthy gain pups compared to those of the Dow. Top ten average Healthcare stock price per dollar of annual dividend as of February 17 was $21.48 a discount of 6.5% off the Dow prices per annual dividend dollar.

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Wall Street Wizard Watching & Dog Metrics Plotted Upside & Gains

One-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment revealed ten stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2017 out of 30 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts have usually provided the most accurate mean target price estimates.

Actionable Conclusion: (5) Analysts Alleged 51.20% Average Price Upsides For Top Ten February Healthcare Dogs

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Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Predicted Top 30 February Healthcare Dogs Show (6) 29.32% Average Upside; (7) 22.22% Average 1 yr. Net Gain

Health sector dogs were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of February 15, 2016 and those as projected by analyst median price target estimates to the same date in 2017.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst median target price was used to gauge the stock upside to 2017.

Historical prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in each of the thirty highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those thirty stocks divided by 3 created the data points for 2016. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the thirty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 3 created the 2017 data points green for price and blue for dividends.

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Analyst targets reported by Yahoo! Finance forecast 22% less dividend from $10K invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 26% in the coming year.

Notice the forecast shows price moving higher than dividend. So the analyst forecast predicted Health dogs moving into an overbought condition one year out.

The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts have historically provided the most accurate estimates. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (8): Analysts Alleged 35% to 90.8% Net Gains By Ten Healthcare Dividend Dogs As Of February 2017.

Five of ten top dividend yielding healthcare dogs were among the ten top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for the healthcare sector as graded by Wall St. wizards was 50% accurate.

Ten probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2017:

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Trinity Biotech plc (NASDAQ:TRIB) netted $908.04 based on dividends plus the median of annual price estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

PDL BioPharma, Inc. netted $846.44 based on mean target price estimates from two analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 32% less than the market as a whole.

Select Medical Holdings (NYSE:SEM) netted $633.33 based on dividends plus median target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% more than the market as a whole.

Kindred Healthcare, Inc. netted $617.00 based on estimates from eight analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

AbbVie Inc netted $411.72 based on dividend plus a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 60% more than the market as a whole.

Anthem, Inc. (Wellpoint) (NYSE:ANTM) netted $411.51 based on estimates from eighteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% less than the market as a whole.

HealthSouth Corp (NYSE:HLS) netted $394.49 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from eleven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% less than the market as a whole.

Sanofi SA netted $381.23 based on a mean target price estimate from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) netted $355.61 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from twenty analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 78% less than the market as a whole.

Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:TEVA) netted $349.69 based on median target prices from twenty-three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 53.09% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.

Dog Metrics Extracted More Bargains From Five Lowest Priced Highest Yield Health Dogs

Ten small, mid, and large cap healthcare equities were culled by yield from here. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

Actionable Conclusions: (9) Analysts Assert 5 Lowest Priced of Top Ten Highest Yield Healthcare Dividend Dogs Generate 42.82% VS. (10) 37.367% Net Gains by All Ten by February, 2017

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$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five Lowest priced stocks of the top ten healthcare dividend kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 14.62% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced healthcare dividend dog, PDL BioPharma, Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 84.64%.

Lowest priced five healthcare dividend dogs for February 15 were: PDL BioPharma, Inc.; Select Medical Holdings Corporation; Kindred Healthcare, Inc.; PetMed Express Inc.; Meridian Bioscience, Inc. , with prices ranging from $2.92 to $17.74.

Higher priced five healthcare dividend dogs for February 15 were: Pfizer; AstraZeneca; Sanofi SA; GlaxoSmithKline PLC; AbbVie Inc., whose prices ranged from $29.36 to $52.58.

This distinction between five low priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The same technique, you now see, can also be used to find the more rewarding dogs in the Healthcare kennel.

The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Its also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.

A caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best use the dividend dog data featured in this article.---Fredrik Arnold

Net gain and loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

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Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your Healthcare dog dividend stock purchase/sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; www.dividend.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: I am/we are long PFE, INTC, CSCO, VZ.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.