Put Some Excitement In Your Investments, Profits In Your Portfolio

| About: ProShares UltraPro (TQQQ)

Summary

A $1.5 billion ETF, trading $400 million daily, price down more than 1/3rd from 6 months highs, now has pro market hedgers forecasting a +20% rise in next 3 months.

Such outlooks occur only 5% of days in past 5 years, but have been profitable 100% of the time. Profits averaging +16%, in 6 weeks; a +240% CAGR.

The ~70 experiences in that average encountered worst-case price drawdowns of -6%. Forecast vs. experience is a 3 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.

Never a sure thing, no guarantees, but could your portfolio use some bolstering?

No rent-money-source funding advised

Sports records and stock-market histories may have been made to be broken. But as team coach, wouldn't you, perhaps when behind in the last of the 9th with bases loaded, rather have Casey at the bat than that poor-record farm-team replacement the front-office (broker) just delivered?

Coaches who pay attention to the odds often come out ahead. So here's a slugger with an enviable record worth respect, worth paying attention to. He may not in one game put you into your version of the World Series, but could easily win you admiration from the management, and from competitors.

What's the risk? Well, he hangs out in a crowd that has earned a bad rep. Some of it is not justified, particularly from his actions.

The crowd is the leveraged ETFs, especially those 3x guys. Like him. But the bad ones are the inverses, ones that just can't help themselves. They've been dealt bad hands from the start, and the harder they try, the worse it gets for them.

But when the leverage is on the upside, where the market is most of the time, then the advantage shines through. Just try to avoid those periods where the 3x inverses get boisterous and start picking fights. Like they have been recently.

Is that starting to change? Maybe, but it's not for sure. I know a bunch of smart-money sharps who seem to think so, the way they are placing bets now. They can afford to lose some, and expect to, but they're starting to get persistent.

And this "Casey" is really tagged ProShares Ultra Pro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ). Been in the league over 5 years now, with good records, and an active following among the pros. Especially when they think the market tide may be turning. Their bets tend to give them away.

My source that tracks their bets looks like this over the past 6 months:

(they said it was o.k. to show you this)

All those lines with the dots in 'em are forecasts of where TQQQ's price might range over the next few months, updated each day. The dots are what the market quote was at the time.

When the lines start movin' up, then the dots are usually following, like they did back in September. That didn't happen in January, because their forecasts kept getting lower.

But now, those forecast lines look like they're starting back up.

Conclusion

Maybe you should take a flier. Not a big one, just a small piece to get your outlook on the positive side, after all the grief of the last few months. Be sure to be ready for more action when things start to look better to the rest of the investing herd.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.