Weekly Outlook: The market is looking for more direction this week after a lackluster sleight of news this past week. On the docket for this week, we have a lot to digest. We have a strong mix of economic data, earnings, and news coming out of other nations. On Tuesday, Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller will be released. Consumer confidence will be key as we got strong news out of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index last week. The consumer is still a crucial part of this economy. On Wednesday, we get the GDP - Second Estimate for Q4, Chicago PMI, and Fed Beige Book. All reports are important as well. Thursday, we get the initial jobless claims, personal income/spending, the ISM Index, construction spending, and auto/truck sales. As you can see, it is going to big one giant week of economic data.
Outside of data, we also have some crucial earnings on the agenda for this week that will be important to the market as well. Some of those include Priceline.com (PCLN) on Monday. On Tuesday, we are getting AutoZone (AZO) and First Solar (FSLR). Wednesday we are getting earnings from Costco (COST), Joy Global (JOY), and SodaStream (SODA). Friday finishes up with Big Lots (BIG). While it is definitely not the action packed week of earnings in the heart of earnings season, these companies all are big names in their respective industry and will definitely impact various segments of the market.
We finally have Europe and the world outside of the USA to deal with this week. The situation in Greece is quieting down, and this weekend we got news from the G-20 that the Eurozone is mulling doing a larger bailout package. More free money. Yeah! We will be getting an important report on German and Eurozone CPI this week as well as Unemployment Change. Additionally, we will be getting an important announcement on LTRO 3-month and 3-year allotments from the ECB.
Finally, we have the issue of oil. Its continual rise is going to cripple our economy if it continues. High oil prices have in the past held markets in check, and it is important to continue to keep an eye on this.
For the most part, based on what we see there are a lot of question marks. The G-20 meeting was a nothing. There is a ton of economic data to sort through, and there are questions with free money in Europe. The devaluation of the Euro and strengthening of the dollar will hurt our markets. Technically, the market is a bit overvalued and overbought, so it would see due for some more correction; however, strong economic data would definitely override technicals this week. It's a wait and watch week. We'll have to react quickly.
Stocks To Watch:
Two stocks we will be watching this week are Big Lots (BIG) and Madison Square Garden (MSG). Both companies look like they have the ability to have some interesting moves off of earnings this week. Both companies report on Friday and are coming into earnings on highs. BIG performs exceptionally well in Q1 of each year and then struggles past March. The company's latest earnings look to be very solid for growth in a market that tends to be low growth.
We believe that these earnings could help propel BIG even higher as the stock has narrowed and looks primed for another breakout. Madison Square Garden has been riding the high of Jeremy Lin phenomena. The real deal is that MSG earnings look weak. The company is not earning as much. We believe, though, that MSG may not be a bad bet as Lin and the success of the New York Rangers may be adding some more value to the company. They may able to increase their outlook on these two tenets and could advance even higher. We would take less agressive positions selling puts against them into earnings.
click to enlarge
Oxen Group Holdings:
We have the following positions. In our Short-Term Equity Portfolio we are long Starbucks (SBUX), Sanderson Farms (SAFM), and Joy Global . In our Options Portfolio, we are long McDonald's (MCD), Apple (AAPL), Panera Bread (PNRA), Priceline , Bed, Bath, and Beyond (BBBY), and Discover Financial (DFS). We are short CTRP. In our earnings portfolio, we are long Priceline, Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Monster Beverage (MNST), and Joy Global.
Chart courtesy of finviz.com.Disclosure:
I am long SAFM.