American Vanguard Corp.: Profit From Bad Agricultural Policy

Thanks to the federal government’s munificent agricultural policy, subsidies abound and enlightened energy policy, taxpayers, directly and indirectly, are paying $100 a barrel for ethanol instead of the price gouging $68 a barrel foisted upon us by the greedy oligopolistic oil companies. Combined, it means that farmers are scrambling for every square inch they can get a plow in; and further, it means that sales of chemicals for crop protection and management should continue at an above average pace.

Last week, we bought American Vanguard Corp (AVD), a diversified specialty and agricultural products company. Its products include insecticides, fungicides, growth regulators and soil fumigants for corn and cotton. Last year, earnings were negatively impacted as farmers shifted acreage from cotton to corn, causing inventory problems in the company’s cotton insecticide; and the stock got whacked. However, the company has a fine record of profit growth, averaging 20%+ annually over the last 10 years; this should continue as the demand from the corn market continues to grow. AVD is also expected to make acquisitions that will contribute to profit increases.

EPS: 2006 $.57, 2007 $.75, 2008 $.90
DVD: $.07
YLD .5%

Disclosure: Author has a long position in AVD

AVD 1-yr chart

Comments

[tblakeslee:]

Your rosey description of AVD ignores the real reason it has been falling. Most of their products are very dangerous chemicals that they purchased the rights to for a song from companies like Dow chmical who unloaded them to get rid of the liability risk. Read the 10K for a list of some of the pending lawsuites. Some of these pending lawsuites could easily bankrupt the company.
For example, from the 10k: "The suits pending in Nicaragua that name AMVAC have been filed on behalf of approximately 3,592 claimants. Each of the Nicaraguan plaintiffs claims $1 million in compensatory damages and $5 million in punitive damages."
One case is coming up un Los Angeles on July 30. They specialize in nasty chemicals that nobody else wants to risk selling. Anyone buying this stock should know about these significant risks and the moral implications.

2007 Jul 07 01:31 PM