Recession or Slowdown: What Do the Numbers Say?

Jun.26.07 | About: SPDR S&P (SPY)

The Chicago Fed Data is continuing to suggest (pdf file) that the economy is slowing down.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI] was –0.22 in May, up from –0.30 in April. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in May. However, in May, contributions from three categories - employment,housing and consumption,and sales, orders, and inventories - improved in May over April.

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The pace of economic activity is in line with a slowdown more so than a recession, at least for now. I am also going to try a new format for trying to classify all of the economic data points as they come in. This will be a work in progress for some time, and I would appreciate suggestions for improvement. As the list fills out, it may help to give a picture of how the overall trends are running.

Economic Data

All suggestions are welcome.