As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Alpha Natural's (ANR) case, we think the firm is undervalued. We think it is fairly valued at $36 per share, significantly higher than where it is currently trading.
For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our VBI, the Valuentum Buying Index (click here for an in-depth, narrated presentation of our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.
If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. Alpha Natural posts a VBI score of 7 on our scale, reflecting our 'undervalued' DCF assessment, the firm's neutral relative valuation versus peers, and its very bullish techinicals. Alpha Natural has the highest VBI score in its peer group, tying with Consol Energy (CNX). Arch Coal (ACI), Peabody Energy (BTU), and James River Coal (JRCC) all score below a 7 on the VBI scale.
Our Report on Alpha Natural
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Alpha Natural earns a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 20% during the past three years.
Although we think the firm's DCF valuation indicates a potential attractive investment opportunity, we'd be more comfortable investing in the firm if it was more attractively priced on a relative basis versus
peers as well.
Alpha Natural has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 3.6% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 0.7 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization
stood at 22.1%.
The firm posts a VBI score of 7. Though we'd grow more constructive if it registered an 8 or higher on our scale, it stands out versus peers due to its significant undervaluation on a DCF basis. We are strongly considering the firm for addition to the portfolio in our Best Ideas Newsletter.
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Alpha Natural's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 20%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.8%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Alpha Natural's free cash flow margin has averaged about 13.1% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website here. At Alpha Natural, cash flow from operations increased about 103% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 150% over the same time period.
Our discounted cash flow model indicates that Alpha Natural's shares are worth between $23 and $49, a range that is above where it is currently trading. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's HIGH ValueRisk™ rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $36 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 45.1 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 4.6 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 20.6% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 27.8%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 4%, which is below Alpha Natural's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 2.6% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Alpha Natural, we use a 10.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $36 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Alpha Natural. We think the firm is attractive below $23 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $49 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate Alpha Natural's fair value at this point in time to be about $36 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of Alpha Natural's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $52 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $36 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.