Another Look At The Canadian Dollar

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Includes: DIG, FXC, OIL
by: Marc Chandler

Summary

USD is moving through a downtrend line against the Canadian dollar.

Oil prices are also turning.

Two-year rate differentials have stabilized, but not yet offering strong support to the greenback.

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. It has been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows that the US dollar is moving above a trend line down, off the January 20 high, just below CAD1.47.

The downtrend line connects the late February high and the mid-March high. It intersects today near CAD1.3200. The 20-day moving average, the green line, also caught the February and mid-March high. It comes in today near CAD1.3200. A close above CAD1.33 would be constructive, but the CAD1.3400-1.3460 area is more important.

Oil prices bottomed the same day the greenback peaked against the Canadian dollar. Oil prices put in a high on March 18, the same day the US dollar put in its low against the Canadian dollar. Oil prices. Oil looks heavy and the MACDs have cross lower. A break of $37.70 basis the May light sweet crude contract would lend credence for the negative near-term outlook.

The US premium over Canada for two-year money has moved off the 23 bp low from last month, but near 31 bp now, it is still arguably too low to give the greenback much of a lift. However, prospects of a Q2 Fed hike may be helped by a strong employment report next week.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.