By Dennis Coyne
Most of the charts that follow were produced by Dean Fantazzini and are in barrels of output per day for oil, condensate, and oil plus condensate, except where noted. In my opinion, Dean's estimates for Texas output for the most recent 24 months are the best that I have seen. I appreciate him sharing his outstanding work with us.
In the chart above, corrected output is 3477 kb/d for TX C+C in January 2016, an increase of 73 kb/d from December 2015. Note that from May 2015 to December 2015, the most recent month's estimate has been about 28 kb/d too high, on average, so actual January 2016 output might be about 3450 kb/d.
The chart above compares Dean's corrected C+C estimate with both the EIA estimate and RRC data which is incomplete for the most recent 24 months. The "RRC error %" is Dean's "corrected" divided by RRC data minus one times 100, and is read from the right axis.
Texas oil output was 3014 kb/d in January 2016, based on Dean's corrected estimate, an increase of 73.5 kb/d from December 2015.
The corrected Texas condensate output was 463 kb/d in January 2016, a decrease of 1 kb/d from December 2015.
The chart above is in thousands of cubic feet per day. The January 2016 corrected estimate is 2381 million cubic feet per day, a decrease of 176 million cubic feet per day from December 2015.
The chart above shows how Dean's estimates have changed over time, from April 2015 to January 2016. Notice, especially, the big change in the estimates from April to June 2015, after which the estimates seem to converge nicely from June 2015 through January 2016. My guess is that the data processing in Texas has been improving dramatically over the past 7 months.
A possible explanation for the difference in the oil data compared to condensate and natural gas that Dean has noticed may be that the RRC has chosen to focus on the oil data first, as this is where most of the tax revenue comes from. Better data (more complete, that is) from condensate and natural gas will soon follow.
This final chart blows up the vertical scale somewhat to better compare Dean's corrected estimate for C+C with EIA and RRC data - the scale is in kb/d (different from the other charts). It also shows the trailing 12-month running average for C+C output. The 12-month average of Texas C+C output has been on a rough plateau between 3450 and 3500 kb/d since July 2015, based on Dean's January 2016 estimate.