Sterling Recovers As Brexit Fears Subside

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Includes: FXB, GBB
by: Robert Geoghan

Summary

British small businesses are confident to leave. Large businesses have much to lose if there is an exit.

EU meddling frustrates everyone, but the EU confuses everyone again by postponing decisions.

Immigration is still the main agenda.

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Picture courtesy openeurope.org.uk

I have read many articles recently where it is assumed the UK will stay - it's not even a question. This assumption is based on a few polls where a no vote is most popular. To get a more rounded view, there is a useful website called whattheukthinks.org where they have collated the results of all the polls. However, if you examine the figures more closely, you will find that out of 70 polls 15 found the majority wanted to leave. This isn't a big percentage, just 21%, but then there are the 20% who were undecided in these results. Even in the polls that show that British citizens would want to stay, it's a close call.

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Business

As a British small businessman, I find headlines of large British businesses warning of the dangers of leaving the EU quite amusing, when you realize that these same businesses are getting hand outs in one way or another from the central power. Then we get a report that thousands of small businesses want out, but the report gets ridiculed because apparently these businesses don't matter because they aren't big enough. The fact is, EU meddling makes it so difficult for small businesses, but perversely helps out larger concerns. This being said, the economy is doing well. Whether it would do better or worse is an unknown at this point. In my opinion though, I think it very unlikely that the UK as a whole will lose any trade agreements with European Companies. It may even invoke a brand new Free Trade Agreement which would be better all round.

EU Meddling

The light bulb saga is part of a continuous program of denationalisation for Countries in the EU. Regulators have proposed to ban the incandescent bulb, but I didn't really pay too much attention until my father in law, who had failing health, requested that I obtain an old style 100 watt bulb, as these new low energy lamps weren't bright enough so he could not see anything. To my dismay, I found it very difficult to buy one, but thankfully remembered I had stashed a few away in the garage years ago.

Various EU meddling with our appliances has been put on hold until after the referendum. They must think that British citizens are stupid if they think a temporary hold on these regulations will keep us happy.

Immigration

The recent bombings Belgium only serve to remind the UK how intertwined we all are and relaxed border control encourages the free movement of terrorists. It is sad fact that this is the world we live in. People get killed for no reason, criminals and terrorists have free movement.

Conclusion

Sterling is strengthening, this being no more apparent than in the cable trade. Where a weakening USD has given the trade a long boost. I believe the Pound has gone high enough and a short on the GBB (NYSEARCA:GBB) or FXB (NYSEARCA:FXB) might be a good move at this juncture.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.