In a previous article, I outlined my approach for analyzing CoT data to reveal how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. If you missed it, give the article a read to see the method behind my analysis.
This is the third in a series of weekly updates that will outline how traders are positioned, and how that positioning has recently changed. I break down the updates by asset class, so let's get started.
No real extreme positioning. Sell-side dealers are very long the 30-year (NYSEARCA:TLT).
Money managers are quite long the 2-year (NYSEARCA:SHY) (betting on lower short-term rates) and pretty short the long end of the curve. This means they're anticipating a steeper yield curve.
Producers and users remain extremely long natural gas (NYSEARCA:UNG).
They are also persistently short crude oil (NYSEARCA:USO).
Money managers are massively long silver (NYSEARCA:SLV). A CoT percentile of 100% translates to money managers being more net long silver than they've ever been in the past five years. If you're bullish on silver, be aware that you've got a lot of company and are not a contrarian.
Money managers are also very short corn (NYSEARCA:CORN).
Money managers have reversed a large portion of their record short in crude oil.
No true extreme positioning. Sell-side dealers are very long the British pound (NYSEARCA:FXB).
Money managers have piled into the Australian dollar (NYSEARCA:FXA).
They've also exited their bullish positioning in the U.S. Dollar Index (NYSEARCA:UUP).
Money managers have finally taken their losses and covered a material amount of their equity shorts (NYSEARCA:SPY).
They've also given up on being long VIX futures (NYSEARCA:VXX).
- Money managers are positioned for a steeper yield curve
- Commodity producers and users are extremely long natural gas. Money managers are very long silver.
- The Australian dollar has become a crowded long.
- Money managers have been forced to cover their equity shorts and VIX longs.
If you've got any questions about CoT data, don't hesitate to ask me in the comments below.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.