Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q1 2016 Update

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Includes: AAPL, AAWW, AMZN, AXP, BAC, BAYRY, BCS, BRK.B, BUD, C, CMCSA, CSCO, CTRP, CVX, DDAIF, DIS, FBGX, FEEU, FIGY, FLGE, GE, GOOG, GOOGL, GSK, HD, HDB, HPY, HSBC, INFY, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, LQD, LRLCY, LVMUY, LYG, MBB, MRK, MSFT, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PEP, PFE, PG, QCOM, RHHBY, RYL, SAP, SCPB, SIEGY, SLB, SNY, TSM, TTM, UBS, UTX, V, VECO, WFC, WMGI, XOM
by: John Vincent

Summary

Fisher’s US long portfolio value increased from $51.9B to $52.63B in Q1 2016.

Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Visa Inc., and Home Depot are the largest five individual stock positions.

Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. They together account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher's US stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management's regulatory 13F Form filed on 04/18/2016. Please visit our Tracking Kenneth Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and our previous update highlighting the fund's moves in Q4 2015.

This quarter, Fisher's US long portfolio increased marginally from $51.9B to $52.63B. The number of holdings decreased from 793 to 744. Significantly large positions increased from 60 to 61. The largest holding is Amazon.com at 2.98% of the US long portfolio. The five largest individual stock positions are Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Visa Inc., and Home Depot. They together account for ~13% of the overall US long portfolio.

To know more about Ken Fisher, check-out his Research Papers (most notably in Behavioral Finance), investment books (several of them were NY Times best sellers) and his father Philip Fisher's scuttlebutt investment philosophy explained in the book "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings".

Note: Fisher manages ~24,000 private client accounts and over 100 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown. We do know that Ken Fisher is very talented and can consistently generate alpha - his Forbes picks are his most visible performance cues and those have outperformed the S&P 500 in the vast majority of years.

Stake Increases:

Chevron (NYSE:CVX), HSBC plc (NYSE:HSBC) and Siemens AG (OTCPK:SIEGY): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased substantially this quarter. The 0.67% CVX stake was increased by ~30% this quarter at prices between $79 and $98 and the stock currently trades outside that range at $102. The 0.79% HSBC position was increased by ~13% at prices between $30.71 and $39.47 and the stock is now at $33.67. SIEGY is a 0.77% portfolio stake increased by ~45% this quarter at prices between $88 and $106 and the stock currently trades just outside that range at $109.

LVMH Moet Hennssy ADR (OTCPK:LVMUY): LVMUY was a 1.26% of the US long portfolio position as of Q3 2014. It was reduced by 22% in Q4 2014 at prices between $31.59 and $35.84. The following quarter saw a further ~43% reduction at prices between $34.59 and $38.18. This quarter saw the pattern reverse: ~19% increase at prices between $29.26 and $35.31. The stock currently trades at $33.74. The original position is from 2008 with the bulk of the current stake purchased in 2012 at prices between $27.62 and $37.24.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN): AMZN is the largest individual stock position at 2.98% of the portfolio. The stake saw a marginal increase this quarter. The position is from 2011 and has tripled: the cost-basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $621.

American Express (NYSE:AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original stake was around 9M shares and the current stake is 11.83M shares. This quarter saw a marginal increase and the position is at 1.40% of the US long portfolio.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA ADR (NYSE:BUD): BUD was a minutely small stake as of Q2 2015. In Q3 2015, the stake was increased to a ~1% of the portfolio position at prices between $104 and $129. The stock currently trades at $128. This quarter saw a ~9% increase at prices between $111 and $127.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): AAPL is a 2.29% top-three individual stock position that was built-up in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. Last six quarters have also seen marginal increases. The stock currently trades at $106.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC): BAC is a 1.15% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was established in Q2 2013 and Q3 2013 at prices between $11.50 and $15 and had since been kept relatively steady. The stock currently trades at $15.10.

Barclays PLC ADR (NYSE:BCS): BCS was an insignificantly small position as of Q3 2014. It was increased to a ~0.50% of the US long portfolio position in Q4 2014 at prices between $13.50 and $15.54. Last four quarters have seen a combined ~23% increase at prices between $8.62 and $12.96. The stock currently trades near the low end of their purchase price ranges at $9.90.

Bayer AG ADR (OTCPK:BAYRY): BAYRY is a 1.10% of the US long portfolio position. The bulk of the current position was purchased in Q2 2014 at prices between $128 and $145. Q2 2015 saw a huge 84% increase at prices between $139 and $155. The stock currently trades below their purchase price ranges at $125. For investors attempting to follow Fisher, BAYRY is a very good option to consider for further research. Last few quarters have seen only marginal activity.

CTrip.com International ADR (NASDAQ:CTRP): CTRP is a 0.85% of the US long portfolio stake. The original position was increased by ~25% in Q3 2015 at prices between $30 and $40. Last quarter saw a huge ~120% increase at prices between $31 and $56. The stock currently trades at $47.12. This quarter saw a ~5% further increase.

Note: The prices quoted above are adjusted for the 2-for-1 stock-split in December 2015.

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS): DIS was a very small position in the portfolio till 2012 when over 8M shares were purchased at prices between $39 and $53. There has only been marginal activity since. The stock currently trades at $104. The position currently stands at 8.65M shares (1.62% of the US long portfolio).

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM): JPM is a 1.65% of the US long portfolio position. The bulk of the current stake was established in 2012 when almost 12M shares were purchased at prices between $32 and $46. The stock currently trades at $63.98 and the position is at 14M shares. The stake saw marginal buying in the last five quarters.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): JNJ is a large top-five 2.27% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72 and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The last significant buying was in Q2 2014 when a 4.7% stake increase happened at prices between $96 and $106. Last few quarters have seen minor additional buying. The stock currently trades at $113.

L'Oreal Co. ADR (OTCPK:LRLCY): LRLCY was a very small position first purchased in 2008. It was built up to a significant ~1% position in 2012 at prices between $20 and $28. The eight quarters from Q3 2013 to Q2 2015 saw a combined ~20% reduction at prices between $30 and $39. The stock currently trades at $36.72 and the remaining stake is at 0.66% of the US long portfolio. This quarter saw a marginal increase.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): PG is another long-term 1.25% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70 and has since been kept relatively steady. Last seven quarters have seen minor buying. The stock currently trades at $80.94.

Roche Holding Limited ADR (OTCQX:RHHBY): RHHBY was a minutely small 0.19% of the portfolio position as of Q1 2015. Q2 2015 saw a whopping ~400% increase at prices between $34.38 and $38.46. The stock currently trades below that range at $32.35 and the stake is now at 0.91% of the portfolio. Last three quarters have seen marginal increases.

SAP AG ADR (NYSE:SAP): SAP is a 0.91% of the US long portfolio position that was built-up over several quarters in 2012 at prices between $54 and $80. The stake has wavered since. Q4 2014 saw a ~6% reduction at prices between $64.14 and $72.16 while Q1 2015 saw a 4.5% increase at prices between $63.56 and $73.53. There were very minor increases in the last four quarters. The stock currently trades at $80.20.

UBS AG GRS (NYSE:UBS): UBS is a 1.09 % of the US long portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $16.92 and $21.45. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19.30 and $21.60. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.62 and $21.50 and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18.32 and $21.15. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed as the position was reduced by ~39%. Last five quarters have seen a combined ~23% increase at prices between $14.88 and $23.06. The stock currently trades at $16.60.

Daimler AG ADR (OTCPK:DDAIF), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (NYSE:GSK), HDFC Bank (NYSE:HDB), Infosys Ltd. (NYSE:INFY), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Novartis A G ADR (NYSE:NVS), PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP), Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM), Sanofi ADR (NYSE:SNY), Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB), Tata Motors (NYSE:TTM), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were increased marginally (less than ~10% change in position size) this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.

Stake Decreases:

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): XOM is a very long-term position. In 2008, just over 5M shares were purchased at prices between $62 and $95. Most of that position was eliminated in 2009 at prices between $66 and $82. The stake was built back up in 2011 at prices between $69 and $87. Q3 2015 saw a ~22% increase at prices between $68.71 and $83.14. This quarter saw an about turn: ~16% reduction at prices between $73.18 and $84.53. The current position stands at 4.54M shares (0.73% of the US long portfolio) and the stock is at $87.52.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B): BRK.B is a 1.52% of the US long portfolio position. The last time a substantial stake build-up happened was in Q3 2013 at prices between $112 and $119 when the position was increased by ~55%. The stock currently trades at $146. It is a very long-term position. The last five quarters have seen minor increases.

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO): CSCO is another long-term holding that was first purchased in 2009. By 2012, the stake was at over 33M shares but was since reduced. Q2 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by 6.7% at prices between $22.41 and $25. The activity has been marginal since. The stock currently trades at $28.15. The stake now stands at 15.4M shares (0.82% of the US long portfolio).

Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA): CMCSA is a 1.46% of the US long portfolio position. The original stake was established in 2012 at prices between $24 and $37. There has only been minor activity since. The stock currently trades at $61.10.

Alphabet Inc. previously Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% position in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $719. The position currently stands at 2.13% of the US long portfolio.

Home Depot (NYSE:HD): HD is a top-five 2.17% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. The stock has more than doubled and currently trades at $136.

Lloyds Banking Group plc ADR (NYSE:LYG): LYG is a 0.63% of the US long portfolio position first purchased in Q4 2013 at prices between $4.67 and $5.36. The stake was increased by ~10% in Q1 2014 at prices between $5 and $5.76 and another two-thirds the following quarter at prices between $4.83 and $5.53. Q4 2014 saw a one-third reduction at prices between $4.64 and $5.04. The activity has been very minor since. The stock currently trades at $4.01. This quarter saw a marginal reduction.

Novo-Nordisk A S ADR (NYSE:NVO): NVO was first purchased in 2011 with the bulk purchased in 2012 at prices between $23 and $34. Last seven quarters have seen a combined ~17% reduction. The stock currently trades at $56.80 and the position is at 1.19% of the US long portfolio. Fisher is harvesting long-term gains from this position.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL): ORCL is a 0.89% of the US long portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original stake was reduced by around 50% in Q4 2013 at prices between $32 and $38. Q2 2014 saw a 6.7% increase at prices between $39 and $43 and since then the activity has been minor. The stock currently trades at $40.70. This quarter saw marginal selling.

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.36% of the US long portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. Last eight quarters have seen a combined ~62% increase at prices between $18.88 and $26.04. The stock currently trades at $25.07.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Merck Inc. (NYSE:MRK), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE), and Visa Inc. (NYSE:V): These are significant positions (more than 0.5% of the US long portfolio) that were decreased marginally (less than ~10% change in position size) this quarter. As the activities were very minor, they do not indicate a change in bias.

The portfolio also has several large positions in different ETNs and ETFs (NYSEARCA:FEEU) (NYSEARCA:FIGY) (NYSEARCA:FBGX) (NYSEARCA:FLGE) (NYSEARCA:LQD) (NYSEARCA:MBB) (NYSEARCA:SCPB) - those together accounts for around 13% of the US long portfolio. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Atlas Air (NASDAQ:AAWW) - 4.95%, Heartland Payment Systems (NYSE:HPY) - 3.33%, Wright Medical (NASDAQ:WMGI) - 4.6%, Veeco Instruments (NASDAQ:VECO) - 4.47%, and Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL) - 4.96.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher's US stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the US long portfolio each are individually listed) in Q1 2016:

Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am/we are long BAC, CSCO, INTC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.