Will the iPhone Suffer From Apple's First-Generation Problems? 11 comments
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The iPhone is an impressive technological achievement, no doubt. It combines phone, computer, and multimedia device into one, while sporting a unique design and user interface. Should we expect anything less from Apple? After all, the iMac, iPod, iTV, and Macbooks were all revolutionary in their own right and shared a level of success. But as with most Apple creations, the first generation of their products is often plagued with bugs and limitations that become fixed and improved in future iterations of the same product.
My Macbook, for instance, which you may have noticed was mentioned as 'trusty,' would shut down randomly, give errors, and eventually would not boot up at all. A Genius later fixed the problem which was common amongst first generation Macbooks; they had too much thermal grease on them and shut down randomly as a consequence of overheating. Other improvements came in the way of software patches, improved the volume of the speakers, battery life, system fan speed, and overall system stability. The next generation of the Macbook was lucky to sport all those fixes, and even featured a faster Core2Duo processor for the same price as the first generation.
Other Apple first-gen products were plagued with problems as well; Airport Extreme base station had problems supporting connections, iTV arrived with missing cables, scratch-prone plastics were all too common on the iPods, stain-prone white plastics on the macbooks, etc. Not to mention, the only thing in common between the first and 5th generation iPod is the name. The point is, while the iPhone is a great product, do not be surprised when people start finding flaws or problems with it, especially with first generation -- which is just days away from being released.
Some people have been lucky enough to get to review the iPhone hands-on (I'm not one of them). I did get to read several reviews, and some potential red flags are the short comings in its limited (small screen) web browsing/file viewing capabilities and relatively small storage (compared to iPods). It also uses a much slower 2.5g network, which may impede the YouTube crowd, and its service restrictions may shun users that are loyal to other companies like Verizon, or are just stuck on their plan. Fundamentally, the iPhone is a jack of all trades but a master of none. Cool as it may be, it's an expensive compromise.
So what does this all mean for Apple's stock? There's a lot of hype surrounding the iPhone, which is very dangerous for a stock that sky-rocketed 30% inside of 2 months. Apple has to tread very carefully with the iPhone because it's walking a tight rope with shareholders. The long-term success of the iPhone is probably secure, but Apple cannot afford to have any negative feedback on its iPhone; still, I think it's inevitable that on some level there will be a problem.
Let me break it down to you like a fraction. Factoring the hype and the not uncommon first-gen problems that arise, I would suggest to those that own the stock to hold it, and for those interested in buying Apple to hold off until a few weeks after the iPhone has debuted.
Disclosure: Author has no position in AAPL
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This article has 11 comments:
Quoting Eran at RoughlyDrafted.com.."T... makes the iPhone over a hundred dollars less than Verizon’s limp Motorola Q."
www.roughlydrafted.com...
All just so much FUD. And often started at the mouth of Ballmer and MS satellites like CNet, ZDNet, Enderle Group et al...
"Obscene" is only in your mind's eye. At least Apple won't force me to buy another throw away phone every 1-2 years because they discontinued the phone, parts or battery. Its "Obscene" to have to re-enter all my contacts and to learn a new interface. Apple simply does it right for the consumer.
It is not removable and if it dies or becomes unbearably inefficient (which it inevitably will), so does your toy - another daring and outstanding 1st in the mobile phone industry!
Now that's what I call obscene...
"And, will Apple's (AAPL) stock live up to its current price tag?"
You bet it will. Even though the stock is up 30% in two months, it's only up about 35% over the past 18 months – and Apple's earnings have skyrocketed over that period with MUCH more to come. Yesterday's report from Micron indicated both DRAM and NAND (flash) memory prices dropped over 30% compared to the previous quarter. Apple will once again CRUSH the earnings expectations.
Anyone with even the slightest dexterity could change his own iPod or iPhone battery. I did it myself--and it cost me $12, including the special little plastic tool to open the case. Or, you can spurge in a few years and have Apple do it while you wait for around $50. You would spend more than that on the tackly little AA batteries. If none of this works, just buy a battery kit online and ask the saleslady at the jewly counter to change it for you. (Just kidding on that one.)
iPhone and iPod is meant to be used with a computer. When you are computing, plug it in to sync it, and it will automatcially charge as well. No need then to ever separately charge it and all your calendars/events/remin... are in sync with your computer. It works great this way, as it was intended.
Technically, the iPhones are actually cheaper seeing as how they're only $499.00 and $599.00. So I guess what you meant by "Did I mention that the iPhone is also more expensive than the Playstation 3?" was...well...umm... Nope, you're simply factually incorrect. No way to spin it.
Speaking of facts, the Airport Extreme base station was hardly a first generation product.
I enjoy your mention of YouTube because it makes it abundantly clear that you've not examined the technical tricks being played by Apple and Google. Among the reasons that Apple got Google to move YouTube to H.264 encoding is because it easily allows them to optimize the video delivery for not just a given screen size, but also a given transport rate. So Google automatically drops the video quality to compensate for an EDGE connection while creating the appearance of immediacy. Most people notice latency...without having a side by side comparison, they mostly won't notice the decrease in video quality. Doing this with their Flash-based system before was much more resource intensive. Now they essentially get it for free. And it doesn't hurt that H.264 delivers nearly twice the quality for the same bitrate as well.
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So, where does that leave us? What will the stock do next week? I wouldn't care to guess. But 18 months from now, I'd bet AAPL will be closer to $200 than $100.
reinharden
flv converter
Now,almost of youtube wii use H264 encoder for iphone