I am not changing my long-term opinion on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), I am just offering my suggestion (as well as a heads-up to what I am doing today) to take some profits now, prior to what I truly believe will be a forthcoming correction, even in Apple stock.
Now before you all start booing me, please remember that I was the first to basically substantiate the rumors about iTV with this October 2011 article. I did provide some links in that article so we could "follow the money," so to speak. In December 2011 I went into further details about the Apple TV, as well as my strong buy recommendation of AAPL stock and my initial price target of $600/share in 12-18 months or so.
For myself I opened a position on the January 2014 LEAPs with a strike price of 400. At the time I felt it was a prudent use of my risk funds, and it has worked out better than OK. In another follow-up article I also upped my price target to $700/share, which of course I was lambasted for, but that day the stock jumped up by $20 bucks and I opened my new LEAP position of the January 2014 600 strike price.
The boo birds came out also, telling me I was just getting caught up in the price target game like everyone else. Maybe so, but I felt, and still feel, that AAPL will show significant PPS gains, greater than many folks expect. Apple is just too darn amazing not to deliver.
At that point we had a dip in price and it looked like we were heading into a consolidation period in the price, when I wrote this article outlining my own positions and entry points on the LEAPs I purchased. When the stock price dropped, I doubled down on my January 2014 600 LEAPs, and had an average price of around $56 a share, or $5,600 per contract, roughly.
Tim Cook delivered a speech that day and wowed the crowd, and I knew then and there, that my $700/share target might be conservative based upon his own enthusiasm. Talk of dividends, stock splits, share repurchases, even company buy-outs were all on the table at that moment, and my outlook jumped to $1,000/share. Of course the rock throwers were out in force and that was fine, but I really stood by my convictions and am still convinced that Apple's best days are still to come.
Action I Am Taking Now
The January 2014 400 strike price has doubled from my original price, and is at $16,500 per contract. I am selling the position and taking my double. The January 2014 600 strike price, which is selling for $6,600 per contract, has given me a 20% profit, and I am taking it. The reason I am selling the positions is simply because i feel we are on the verge of a market correction, and Apple stock will pullback as well in my opinion. When that occurs, I will buy new positions in LEAPs and will decide which ones at that time.
I will never be too greedy to take a profit, and I believe that I am being prudent. The cash will look wonderful in my reserve account when we finally have a pullback.
My overall sentiment on Apple stock remains the same. It is the most amazing performer in the last 10 years and will continue to produce. Right now, it's time for me to take a deep breath. What will you folks do today?
Disclaimer: Please remember to do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or stocks, and is the opinion of the author.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I will be selling my LEAP positions now.