My Prediction of What The Fed Will Say

The talking heads have spent the entire morning yesterday pontificating about what the Fed will say after its meeting. Want to know?

Inflation and Interest Rates:

The incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing of core inflation. However, in the statement accompanying last month's policy decision, the FOMC again indicated that its predominant policy concern is the risk that inflation will fail to ease as expected and that it is prepared to take action to address inflation risks if developments warrant.

Economy:

The U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace this year and next, with growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes. The central tendency of those forecasts--which are based on the information available at that time and on the assumption of appropriate monetary policy--is for real GDP to increase about 2-1/2 to 3 percent in 2007...

Housing:

We have not seen major spillovers from housing onto other sectors of the economy.

Business:

The business sector remains in excellent financial condition, with strong growth in profits, liquid balance sheets, and corporate leverage near historical lows. Last year, those factors helped to support continued advances in business capital expenditures.

How can I be so sure? Easy. He has been saying the same thing since February. The absolute worst thing that could come out of this meeting is a rate cut. That would mean the risk of a recession is now outweighing the risk of inflation and this scenario is bad new for everyone.

No matter what is said, I am sure CNBC's Steve Leesman will spent three hours debating the significance of the words "should" vs. "will" or "more likely" vs. "likely" in the statement. These folks fail to understand Greespan has left the building and the deciphering his statements required is no longer necessary. What the Bernanke Fed says it what it means - no guesswork necessary.

Now, the market and its participants have not fully accepted this yet. It will jump around as the statement comes out and people try to extrapolate some hidden meaning that just is not there. Watch for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to jump around. Don't worry, sooner or later they will figure it out.