iPhone ‘Halo Effect’ Set to Drive Mac Sales Higher

‘Halo Effect’ – An effect where the positive qualities in one thing give rise to the perception of similar qualities in related things.

A massive transformation is underway between consumers and their personal computers.

The latest consumer PC survey from ChangeWave Research shows two major purchasing shifts simultaneously hitting the marketplace. One is near certain to have a transformational impact on Apple (AAPL). The other has important implications for Dell (DELL).

The survey was conducted June 6-12, 2007 and a total of 3,881 members of the ChangeWave Alliance participated.

First, we asked respondents who had either bought a computer in the past 90 days or who planned to buy one in the next 90 to tell us which type of computer (desktop or laptop) and the manufacturer.

Past 90 Days for Apple

No major surprises here, as Apple’s consumer PC sales for the past 90 days have held steady in both desktops (8%; up 1-pt) and laptops (12%; down 1-pt). The most important finding is the stellar year-to-year comparable on Apple laptop sales (+33%).

But it’s when we asked respondents about their planned computer purchases over the next 90 days that the marketplace transformation becomes apparent.

Explosive Apple ‘Halo Effect’

Going forward, an astonishing 28% of respondents who plan to purchase a laptop in the next 90 days say they’re getting an Apple Mac – a 9-pt increase since our previous survey in March. Another 22% say they’ll buy an Apple desktop – a 4-pt increase since March.

The chart below shows just how dramatic a transformation in market share this represents for Apple.

What’s the most likely explanation for such large-scale projected gains going forward? First and foremost, all of the advance publicity surrounding the release of the Apple iPhone is concurrently having a ‘Halo Effect’ on Apple computer sales. But another likely contributor is the coming new release of Apple's highly anticipated Leopard Operating System (OS X) for Macs.

Bottom Line: For those wondering what a ‘Halo Effect’ looks like, take another look at the above Apple chart.

A Bottom For Dell Among Consumers?

There is more surprising news. Dell has experienced a large market share increase among consumers over the past 90 days – its first positive results in a ChangeWave PC purchasing survey since June 2006.

A total of 37% of Alliance respondents say they bought a Dell desktop in the past 90 days (up 8-pts). Laptop purchases (28%) have also ticked up 2-pts.

Before declaring victory for Dell, be forewarned that the firm’s picture going forward over the next 90 days is clearly not as rosy – although it is still somewhat better in terms of desktops than previously. In Dell’s case, that may be all it needs to impress the Street.

Planned desktop purchases for Dell (36%) gain 1-point – a positive sign, although it’s still 10-pts below last June. On the down side, Dell Laptop planned purchases (28%) fall 5-pts to a new all-time low.

The bottom line here is that after 18 months of decline, Dell is suddenly showing signs of momentum among consumers. That, in and of itself, is a notable development. However, be forewarned, it is still being overshadowed by Dell’s market share woes on the corporate IT side.

ChangeWave’s most recent corporate IT spending survey results show Dell hitting new all-time lows in the 3rd Quarter, with a 1-pt decline in projected planned purchases for both desktops (34%) and laptops (33%).

Importantly, in terms of relative sales, Dell’s corporate IT market dwarfs its consumer market – so we need to be very cautious in assessing the overall impact of the above consumer results. Nonetheless, the consumer uptick is a positive sign for Dell. We’ll continue to watch this one closely.

Mixed Results for Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

Hewlett-Packard’s desktop market share appears to have faltered in the past 90 days. Just one-in-four respondents (25%) who purchased a desktop over the last 90 days say they bought an H-P – down 5-pts from March. However, laptop purchases (27%) rose 2-pts.

Planned H-P desktop purchases for the next 90 days are also trending lower, with just 23% of respondents saying they’ll buy one – a 5-pt slowdown since our previous survey in March. On a positive note, planned Laptop purchases (28%) are up 1-pt from previously.

Thus, ChangeWave’s latest survey contains mixed results for Hewlett-Packard. It’s moving forward in terms of laptop market share, yet stepping backwards in terms of desktops.

Gateway (GTW): An Overall Decline in Momentum

Another set of mixed results was found for Gateway, as their consumer desktop share fell sharply over the past 90 days (3%; down 6-pts) – possibly due to the Dell bounce back – while Gateway laptops experienced a healthy uptick (8%; up 3-pts).

Looking forward, planned purchases for both Gateway desktops (10%) and laptops (4%) fall 4-pts each. Overall, these survey results point to a weakening in Gateway market share, and a decline in momentum going forward.

With major winds of change billowing the consumer PC market and nobody knowing exactly what the landscape will look like once the dust settles, one thing appears clear – Apple has huge momentum going forward.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article.

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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 10,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on the ChangeWave Alliance, or if you are interested in joining, please click here.

Comments

[Derek Hart]

"The survey was conducted June 6-12, 2007 and a total of 3,881 members of the ChangeWave Alliance participated."

I'd like to see data on how closely Alliance members buying habits relate to the consumer world in general. Otherwise this is meaningless.

[Camden]

Great article. I agree with Derek's comment that it would be nice to know the correlation between Alliance members buying habits and that of the general public. But regardless, the changes indicated in the polls are very likely significant.