This Major Company Just Pulled Guidance

| About: SPDR S&P (SPY)

Summary

Janet Yellen and company said they are no longer going with forward guidance.

Did you ever see what happens to a company that pulls forward guidance?

That gets an official rating of Uh-Oh.

Janet Yellen, when speaking to congress June 21st was asked about the Fed's loss of credibility. Her answer was powerful. She said they are using expectations "less" and "not relying on forward guidance."

These are incredible words.

Not because of data dependence

We've reported multiple times that the Fed, this year has been incredibly indecisive (here and here). Many have said that is a function of a Fed mandate of data dependence. Data dependence is a recently designed Fed term. It is an official way of saying "we do not know which way things are going."

Yellen's most recent testimony, however, is much worse than "data dependence."

She is saying that even data dependence does not suffice and all economic models and forecasts, even based on data dependence, are not useful.

If the leadership is in the dark then so is the nation.

What happens to a company that pulls guidance?

Any fundamental analyst knows that a company that pulls guidance will see their stock drop. A lack of guidance means the company can't see into the future as they once did. They lost visibility.

What pulling guidance really means

We're going to go into a brief lesson of Fed speak. We're going to say a few Fed words and tell you what they mean.

Risk: Down markets

Volatility: Down markets

Not relying on forward guidance: Down markets

Using expectations "less": Down markets

That's what we think their words mean to them.

New Territory: We need to depend on OUR OWN work

All of the time spent tracking the Fed is now for naught. They don't know why their own policies are not working. They've admitted that we should not listen to their guidance, models and expectations, because they don't work.

So how do I track monetary policy?

In our Field Trip To The Fed we review what the Fed is actually doing based on the reported data. This helps us look through what they are saying. We designed this report after being disappointed multiple times hearing them go back and forth.

We see them pulling money from the system, reducing the monetary base, raising reserve requirements, and increasing capital requirements on banks.

The Fed Is Currently (Quietly) Tightening

In other words, despite their public indecisiveness, they are tightening. We can understand why they wouldn't want the public to think that.

We've shown based on public Fed statements, that they know they will hit markets if they tighten (see here for proof). They want to do it quietly.

We've been saying it is more important to track what they are doing then to listen to them.

So Why Is The Economy Not Acting Like The Fed Expects?

Why Is The Economy Slowing Faster Than They Expect?

The Fed can't figure out why the economy is not going up.

1) After a long run of loosening they are actually tightening (see here for proof).

2) Even though we are at full employment the work force is smaller due to the baby boomers coming out of the workforce (see here for proof).

3) Productivity is dropping based on some of the above factors which could drive inflation. Inflation likely blindsides them. (See here for proof).

If the CEO doesn't know what's going on we sell the stock

We have been bearish on the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) as you know. The CEO just told us to sell her stock because she doesn't know what's going on. We think there is downside.

Good luck and please be in touch. All of your comments teach US a ton.

See more from Elazar Advisors, LLC on SA

Elazar Advisors, LLC specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company and macro stories with a hedge fund perspective.

If you want Elazar's analysis on Seeking Alpha, scroll to the top of the article and hit "Follow." Elazar also writes real-time pieces as earnings and news are reported on Seeking Alpha. If you want to be among the first updated, be sure to check the box for "Real-time alerts on this author" under "Follow."

(NASDAQ:QQQ), (NYSEARCA:IWM), (NYSEARCA:VXX)

Disclaimer: All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. This article is for information purposes only. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC, bestideas, their related parties, and its authors harmless. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, $uup, #elazaradvisorsllc, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX,

Disclosure: I am/we are short EMINI FUTURES BUT THAT CAN CHANGE AT ANY TIME.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.