Major Auto-related Stocks
(used with permission)
Each stock is positioned in this map by its intersection of upside price change forecast on the green horizontal scale and the price drawdown exposures (on the red vertical scale) typical after prior forecasts like today's. Any issue above the dotted diagonal has more potential risk than return at its present price.
Since price-change risk is a dynamic, not a constant, exposure in these relationships will change over time.
Other useful details from similar prior forecasts
Columns (5) and (6) are the source for Figure 1 coordinates. The (7) metric tells what % of the (2) to (3) range lies below (4). It discriminates among (12) prior forecasts to select the similar sample from which columns (8) to (14) data is provided. (13) compares (5)'s promise to (9)'s prior delivery; (14) compares (5) to (6). (15) is a figure of merit combining the several qualitative measures into an odds-weighted, risk-conditioned number as a ranking metric.
Since individual investor preferences will (properly) vary, no single scoring system can be suitable for all, hence several important variables are presented.
The blue rows at bottom of Figure 2 aggregate this set of stocks for comparison with a total population of all stocks and aggregates similarly analyzed this day. SPDR S&P500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) provides an investable market index comparison. The Top-20 stocks aggregate indicates how the most-competitive capital-gain investment candidates in the population compare.
Very few stocks in this set provide able competition in the potential near-term capital gain contest.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.