Injection Forecast For Next Week - Natural Gas Daily

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Summary

We anticipate an injection figure around +0 Bcf.

Current range is -2 Bcf - +7 Bcf.

Finalized estimates will come out next Tuesday.

EIA reported a +17 Bcf injection figure yesterday, which was 3 Bcf lower than our expectation of +20 Bcf. Be sure to read our summary of the storage figures here.

We anticipate a very low injection figure for next week's report. Currently, we are anticipating a +0 Bcf injection figure, and the range is currently -2 Bcf - +7 Bcf. Our estimates are coming in well below the average and towards the lower end.

If storage injection comes in at +0 Bcf, it would be considerably lower than the +38 Bcf last year and the +51 five-year average. Storage would remain at 3.294 Tcf.

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Power burn this week was insane. Looking at the current figures, they averaged just slightly above 40 Bcf/d. US production saw a rebound this week as the REX pipeline maintenance was concluded. Canadian imports took a hit on Friday falling 0.7 Bcf/d, but we continue to think it will average over 7 Bcf/d going forward until the AECO basis shrinks. AECO basis did drop quite a bit on Friday falling over C$0.24/Mcf. The differential is now getting closer to the $0.75/Mcf difference, so we could start to see some pressure on Canadian gas imports.

Overall, next week should be a very positive storage report. As always, finalized estimates will be published next week Tuesday.

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