July Auto Sales Tracker - 3 Misses To Start

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Includes: F, FCAU, GM, HMC, HYMLF, KIMTF, MZDAY, NSANY, TM, VLKAY
by: Bespoke Investment Group

We've gotten July sales figures from Ford (NYSE:F), GM, and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), collectively about 41% of the US market for automobiles. So far, all three have missed individual estimates for their company's sales, as rental fleet declines mask decent retail (consumer) unit growth for GM and Nissan.

With those three reported, we're tracking an auto sales figure of 17.379mm SAAR versus the 17.3mm SAAR expected by economists entering Tuesday's reporting. Below we chart the evolution of that tracking, which is cumulative based on all reported companies as-of the most recent report. We'll update this post further as more sales estimates roll in throughout the day.

Update 1 9:48 AM: Fiat-Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) announced a +0.3% YoY increase in sales (unadjusted for day count) and that has pushed our tracker up to 17.455mm SAAR. That's still a decline versus the 17.505mm SAAR posted a year ago. We will continue to update the chart below as new sales figures are released.

Update 2 10:38 AM: Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) both reported solid results, which took the SAAR estimate up slightly for Mazda and 0.25mm SAAR for Honda to a total run-rate of 17.7mm SAAR with 65% of the market reported. Toyota (NYSE:TM), Kia (OTC:KIMTF), and Hyundai (OTC:HYMLF) are the last major manufacturers we are waiting on, though there are also a number of smaller players still pending.

Update 3 11:47 AM: With the addition of sales reports from Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY) and Toyota, we have updated our tracker to a 17.542mm SAAR reading versus 17.3mm expected. With 8 major manufacturers accounting for over 80% of the new car market reported, June sales for those reported are 1.219mm versus 1.227mm one year ago. Non-seasonally adjusted that's a 66 bps decline versus July of 2015, but Federal Reserve seasonal adjustments are friendlier this month than they were in July 2015, when SAAR came in at 17.441mm. That's why the current SAAR is up 58 bps YoY to 17.542mm in our tracker. We'll provide one more update later today when minor manufacturers have reported.

Update 4 1:45 PM: With all auto OEMs now reported, NSA auto sales are up 40 bps versus July a year ago (see table at bottom). As we noted above, seasonal adjustment adds slightly to that total bringing auto sales to a 17.7mm unit SAAR by our estimate. We'll hopefully hear from Ward's Auto by the end of the day to confirm the SAAR estimate we're tracking. As of now, however, it looks like a pretty solid month for auto sales versus the 16.61mm SAAR posted in June.

Final Update 3:47 PM: Ward's Auto has announced SAAR of 17.8mm on their tracker, which we agree with as per the tracker below. We'll be back next month with our running intraday tracker of auto sales for the month of August.

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