Mixing My Opinion Into the iPhone Stew

Seeing as every other mobile analyst and blogger has been pontificating about the iPhone, I might as well add my opinion as well.

1) Yes, it's very cool
2) Apple seems to have done a great job getting AT&T to agree to its own private activation and application strategy
3) Apple fans will love obviously it
4) Fashionistas will love it for about 3.5 weeks and then move onto the next shiny thing
5) Nearly everyone who buys one will probably use a second device, probably a "boringphone"
6) The US mobile market may be galvanized by Apple's "game-changing" approach
7) SMS will be a pain with the touchscreen
8) Success in Europe and Asia is dependent on iPhone v2 and v3
9) If it launches in current form in Europe, it stacks up badly feature-for-feature against its high-end peers (camera, no 3G or GPS, etc.)
10) Distribution in Europe is still up for grabs. Voda might make sense, given its professed desire for better PC/mobile integration - the iPhone looks class-leading in that respect
11) It's damn expensive, especially on a two-year (!) contract
12) Enterprise users - only if bought for personal use and then used for work. Forget about corporate email support and especially VoWLAN / FMC for at least 12 months
13) OK, OK, OK - I was wrong when I guess that Apple wouldn't put music in it. I'd thought they'd want to sell you a phone AND an musicplayer, but they've succumbed to the convergence hype.... (wrong move, Steve - the future's about lots of devices and multiplicity.)

Bottom line: I'd say it'll be a winner in the US, do OK in Europe - but that I'm waiting for Apple's second move to see if it's actually got a real strategy rather than just a pretty product.

And me? I wouldn't swap my main, personal, SonyEricsson K800i for an iPhone as I like the 3MP camera with a flash, and the ultra-quick UI. But I would use it as my second/third phone if it offered a better email/Internet experience (and maybe 'content,' although personally I think video isn't of use to me).

Comments

[Brian Masck:]

Not long before a bluetooth keyboard could make the iPhone a great solution for a low-end home computer, using Apple TV as the bridge to your fancy HDTV monitor.

I see this launch as only the very beginning of integration of digital media and common home hardware.

2007 Jul 03 08:33 AM

[uncleralph:]

I really can't stop laughing.... That you would keep a second phone just because it had a slightly better camera -LOL- Did you ever think you could just cary a digital camera that would be way better than either phone's camera?

Sheeesh, a camera that cost you $85 a month.....

2007 Jul 03 09:00 AM

[frankz00:]

What is it with pundits and bad Apple predictions? Didn't you guys learn when you said the same thing about the iPod 80 million units ago???

2007 Jul 03 11:13 AM

[WriterGuy:]

Some people refuse to see reality, because it clashes with what they want reality to be. Most reviewers and users with more than 10 minutes time on the iPhone report they LIKE the virtual keyboard at least as much as the tiny keys on Treos and Blackberrys. And "forget about corporate support for 12 months"? Uh, wrong again. It's already happening, with a new version of Exchange that debuted the same day (or don't you keep up on a field you supposedly are an expert in?). And compared with other high-end smart phones, the costs are more or less equivalent, especially since Cingular priced service $20 lower than I'm paying with my current Treo 300.

Have pundits like you learned absolutely no lessons from the success of the iPod? You can't simply compare feature vs. feature, since the user interface itself is Apple's greatest strength; users will pay a premium for a device that works first time, every time; that this is not a "fashionista" device, but a device that stays in fashion simply because it's so good as the function it was designed for.

The time for FUD ended about 6:30pm last Friday. Get with it. The rules HAVE changed. You should be focused on figuring out which hand-held manufacturers are going to be out of business in a year. And my list starts with the Treo.

2007 Jul 03 12:53 PM

[davesmall:]

Answer these questions:

1. Do you think Apple will be coming out with a new iPod design before Xmas?

2. Do you think it will incorporate many of the featues that are in the iPhone?

3. If Apple were to introduce an iPod with these features would the current 100 million iPod customers want to upgrade?

- Screen size touch screen keypad, and form factor just like the iPhone
- WiFi enabling web surfing and email just like the iPhone
- Calendar, calculator, stock quotes, music, YouTube, and videos just like the iPhone

In other words, an iPhone without the phone and without the AT&T contract. Call it next generation iPod. Price it at $395 and watch Apple's stock price go up, up, and away.

Further imagine what that does for Apple's margins. Many components would be shared between iPhones and iPods. Also think what it would do to MP3 player competitors like Zune as they grow smaller and smaller in Apple's rear view mirror.

2007 Jul 03 01:10 PM

[findshon:]

David,

You are either an Apple insider or just plain dead-on in your opinions regarding Apple's next generation IPod.

Answers to your questions:

1. Yes
2. Yes
3. Yes

Your $395 pricing is exact in my opinion.

-Apple Juice-

2007 Jul 04 08:11 PM

[reinharden:]

> 5) Nearly everyone who buys one will probably use a second device, probably a "boringphone"

This has to be my favorite. Umm...I'd have to guess that that's a little out of the main-stream.

For phone, I wondered through 3 AT&T stores Friday prior to and at the launch-time. I found 40 to 50 people in line at each store prior to the launch (in Reston, VA).

I chatted with a dozen or so people standing in line and found the following interesting-to-me tidbits. 10/12 people in line did *not* have a Macintosh. 8/12 people didn't even have an iPod! More than half wanted an iPhone because they wanted a phone that "didn't suck" or "just worked" or some variation. Only a few cited "coolness" as a concern. To my surprise, more than half of the people I spoke with were, well, poorer than I'd have thought. The dozen I spoke to at some length included an auto mechanics, two teachers, a security guard, two restaurant workers, a grocery store clerk, a general contractor, and then the expected assortment of professionals/IT workers/geeks (which I usually count myself among).

Anyway, I mention these details because I was surprised. I was expecting Mac fans. I was expecting iPod users. And I was definitely expecting higher economic classes.

But these are not the kinds of folks who are going to be impacted by EDGE versus 3G and they're certainly not going to carry a second or a third device.

So...like I said
> 5) Nearly everyone who buys one will probably use a second device, probably a "boringphone"

That's my favorite. ;-)

reinharden

2007 Jul 03 04:46 PM

[andy martin:]

1. You are correct.
2. You are correct.
3. You are correct.
4. You are semi-correct.
5. Wrong!
6. Wrong! They will get left behind.
7. Wrong! It just has a learning curve.
8. You are semi-correct.
9. You are semi-correct.
10. You are correct.
11. You are semi-correct.
12. You are semi-correct.
13. You are semi-correct. Regualar consumers want to have one device for phone, music and camera. (Watching movies is a bonus).
14. This is the last article I read that you author.

2007 Jul 03 05:32 PM