10 Scary Charts: October 13, 2016 Update

| About: SPDR S&P (SPY)

Summary

Displays ten long-term charts depicting various broad-based aspects of the economic situation.

Charts generally show worrisome levels despite 88 months having passed since the end of the recession.

The charts show how "atypical" the current economic era is from a long-term perspective.

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being "10 Scary Charts: July 13, 2016 Update."

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now - 88 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession - is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 9-20-16):

housing starts

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-16):

Federal Deficit

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-16):

Federal Net Outlays percent change from year ago

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-29-16):

ASLPITAX percent change from year ago

US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-7-16):

TOTLL Percent Change From Year Ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

Bank Credit - All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-7-16):

TOTBKCR percent change from year ago

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-6-16):

M1 Money Multiplier

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-7-16):

median duration of unemployment

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 10-7-16):

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 10-7-16):

CFNAI-MA3

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 12, 2016.

-

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2139.17 as this post is written

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.