To read the company fleet status report, October 17, 2016, click here.
1. Class: Jackups
Rate at 0 revenue
|1||Dhabi II |
Noble Ed Holt
|300/25||mid 3/18||53|| |
Late 10/16 - mid 12/17
|8||M1162||328/30||Late 1/19|| |
rate in discussion
Early 11/16 - Early 12/16
Light well intervention services
|mid 11/17|| |
Sold to SinoEnergy
|JU||Late 10/16 - Late 11/16||53|| |
Light well intervention services
3. Prospector Offshore HE-HS Jack-up new build.
Note: The company has the option to delay the delivery of Prospector 6. The three rigs (P6, P7 and P8) are being constructed on a non-recourse basis with no parent company guarantees. They do not figure into the fleet status anymore.
Cold Stacked and Ready Stacked Rigs
Note: Ready stacked includes warm stacked, hot stacked and available (When the status or rig name is marked in blue you can click to get more information).
|Name||Year built||Location||Last contract date||status|
|1||DPDS1||1979||US GoM||11/14||Cold stacked|
|Puerto Rico||9/15||Cold Stacked|
|3||DPDS3||1977/2005 2013||Puerto Rico||8/16|| |
|2||MSS1||1979-2000||North Sea||10/16||Ready stacked|
|3||MSS2||1977-2004||Puerto Rico||4/16||Cold Stacked|
|2||L1111||1982/2004||US GoM||11/13||Cold stacked|
|3||L1113||1975/1993||US GoM||5/15||Cold stacked|
|4||L1114||1982||US GoM||10/14||Cold stacked|
|6||L1116||1977-1996||US GoM||11/13||Cold stacked|
|9||M531||1972-1998||US GoM||12/14||Cold stacked|
|10||M821||1976-2003||US GoM||2/15||Cold stacked|
|11||M823||1979-1999||US GoM||11/14||Cold stacked|
|12||L781||1982-1998||US GoM||5/15||Cold stacked|
|13||B301||1976-1993||US GoM||6/15||Cold stacked|
|14||M841||1975/1997||US GoM||9/15||Cold stacked|
|15||M824||1982||US GoM||9/15||Cold stacked|
|17||C20052||1980||North Sea||2/16||Cold Stacked|
|20||C463||1982||North Sea||4/16||Cold Stacked|
|22||C20051||1982/2005||UK||8/16||Ready stacked per Rigzone|
|23||Prospector 1||2013||UK||9/16||Planned maintenance until mid-Dec 16. NL|
The Semi-Submersible MSS1 and the JU C20051 have not been classified as "stacked" in the October FSR despite being effectively out of work according to Rigzone.
The company indicated a backlog of $472 million as of June 30, 2016, (now estimated at $348 million):
Paragon's total contract backlog at June 30, 2016, was approximately $472 million compared to $806 million at March 31, 2016. Although Paragon continues to contest the approximately $143 million of backlog associated with what we believe to be an early release of the Paragon DPDS3 by Paragon's customer Petrobras, we have removed that amount from our June 30, 2016 backlog total. The March 31, 2016 backlog total included this disputed amount.
Paragon Fleet Status
Paragon Offshore released another depressing FSR, with only one new contract for 30-day for the JU B391 with Centrica in the UK North Sea @$53k/d, for a light well intervention services. Total additional backlog is estimated at $1.6 million.
The Semi-submersible MSS1 has ended its small contract and is now classified as "ready stacked" by Rigzone. The contract Backlog is now estimated at $348 million and has been eroding at a fast pace since March 31, 2016. Below is the rate of erosion the past 7 months.
As a reminder, Paragon Offshore has "projected" the future revenues indicated below, in the Bankruptcy plan.
Yes, it is not a typo, the total revenues projected from 2017 to 2019 is $2,745 million, whereas, the actual "real" backlog from 2017 to 2019 is $290 million. The company expects to get at least $2,584 million in new contract backlog, assuming a 95% efficiency? I let you be the judge.
Paragon's confirmation hearing before the Court concluded on September 30, 2016 and we are now awaiting the judge's decision. I am expecting that the Judge Sontchi will deliver his decision probably early November 2016. Whether to confirm or not the Plan, of course.
Paragon Offshore has indicated what will happen assuming a positive decision, here.
I will not comment on the other catastrophic alternative -- which is Plan denied, back to square one -- we know what will happen in this case.
I am expecting a confirmation -- despite my firm belief that the company will be back in bankruptcy no later than H2 2017 -- unless the Judge Sontchi is well aware of the business situation, that will probably get much worse for Paragon Offshore, at least until H2 2018, which is evidently too late.
If the plan is approved? Let's be positive.
I think it is reasonable to expect a positive reaction with a stock price trading higher, at least for a few hours. The question is how high and how long before most of the traders take their profit off the table and run? Many day traders will participate in the trading frenzy.
A good entry point should be in the range of 0.57 to 0.62, assuming a positive ruling by the Judge Sontchi.
I have accumulated a fair amount of shares, that I intend to sell out the same day as the decision is released, thereby, expecting a profit or unfortunately a loss.
I will not be the only one, I am afraid, and I recommend to be very careful and set a reasonable profit. Warning, The price per share will not reflect the fair price and will be used as a simple trading tool, it will be futile to guess a value based on the balance sheet. Good luck to all.
Important note: Do not forget to follow me on Paragon Offshore and other offshore drillers. Thank you.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I own a trading position that I intend to sell soon.
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