Noble Corp. - Complete Fleet Analysis As Of October 20, 2016, And Commentary

| About: Noble Corporation (NE)

Summary

One 6-month contract awarded at an undisclosed rate for the jack-up Noble Houston Colbert with JX Nippon in Qatar.

The new range $51-$53 per barrel has been holding firm since early October, which is encouraging. However, we are still waiting for new contracts.

NE is now a definitive buy between $5 and $6, assuming oil prices solidly anchored in the $50-$55 range.

Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE)

This article is an update of my preceding article published on September 17, 2016, about the August fleet status.

Complete Fleet Analysis and Fleet Status as of October 20, 2016.

Link of the fleet status released by the company, click here.

1. Class: Drillships

# Name

Spec.

K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

K$

Location

(0-rate)

1

Noble Bob Douglas

2013

10/40

Mid 2/17

4/17 - 6/17 (60-day?)

636

$290?

[Anadarko]

GOM

[Apache]

Suriname

2

Noble Bully I

2011

8.2/40 Mid 3/17

488

Options for extensions have lapsed.

[Shell]

GOM

5-Y survey 9/16

0-rate (16d) 3Q'16 for thruster repair

3

Noble Bully II

2011

8.25/40

Early 4/22

456

[Shell]

Malaysia

4

Noble Don Taylor

2013

10/40 Late 2/19 482

[Shell]

US GOM

15% bonus eligible

Decline in day rate due to reduction in crewing level as requested by client

5

Noble Globetrotter I

2011

10/40 Mid 7/22 436 (For 1st 5 years)

[Shell]

US GOM 15% bonus eligible

(21d) 3Q'16*

6

Noble Globetrotter II

2013

10/40

Early 9/23

434 (Fixed for first 5 years)

[Shell]

Tanzania

15% bonus eligible

Decline in day rate due to reduction in crewing level as requested by client

Click to enlarge

* Globetrotter I: Experienced 21 days planned out‐of‐service period at zero day rate for BSEE required BOP certification and five‐year special periodic survey. This work was planned for early 2017, but was accelerated to accommodate client schedule.

2. Class: Semi-Submersibles

# Name

Spec.

K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

$ k

Location
1

Noble Paul Romano

1981/1998

6/25

Mid 12/16

(+-80 days one well)

128.5

[Hess]

USGOM

Click to enlarge

4. Class: Jack-Ups

# Name

Spec.

Feet/K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

Location
1

Noble Alan Hay

1980/2005

300/25

Late 12/17

85

Arabian Gulf

0-rate 3Q'16 (55d) for SPS

2

Noble Lloyd Noble

2Q'2016

($409 million final payment)

492/32

mid 11/16

mid 11/16 - Late 11/20

Rig arrived in United Kingdom on September 15, 2016.

Acceptance testing

447 (including mobilization revenue)

[Statoil] UKNS

2-year priced option

3

Noble David Tinsley

1981/

2004/2010

300/25

Late 12/17

85

Arabian Gulf

4

Noble Gene House

1981/1998

300/25

Mid 11/18

65

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

(30d) 3Q17

5

Noble Hans Deul

2009

400/30

8/18

88 ("1")

[Shell]

UK

North Sea

6

Noble Joe Beall

1981/2004

300/25

Mid 11/18

65

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

(90d) 1Q17

7

Noble Mick O'Brien

2013

400/35

8/17

150

UAE

8

Noble Roger Lewis

2007

400/30

Early 3/17

167

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

0-rate 1Q'17 (15d)

9

Noble Sam Hartley

2014

400/35

Mid 1/19

111

[Total]

Brunei

10

Noble Sam Turner

2014

400/35

Late 8/18

96.5

[Maersk]

Denmark

11

Noble Scott Marks

2009

400/30

Early 7/17

167

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

(30d) 1Q'17

12

Noble Regina Allen

2013

300/25

Mid 4/17

Not disclosed (55k/d?)

[Not disclosed]

UK NS

13

Noble Houston Colbert

2014

400/35

12/16

12/16-5/17

Warm stacked

Not disclosed (80k/d?)

[JX Nippon]

Qatar

Click to enlarge

("1") Client has the right to early terminate the contract for convenience subject to a notice period and, in some circumstances, a retroactive day rate adjustment.

Rigs available, ready stacked or cold stacked, idle.

# Rig name/shipyard date Type Year built Status Location
1 Noble Homer Ferrington (1/14) SemiSub 1985/2004

Cold Stacked

Italy
2 Noble Max Smith (10/14) SemiSub 1980/1999 Preparing for cold stacked Singapore
3 Noble Clyde Boudreaux (12/15) SemiSub 1987/2007 Warm stacked Singapore
4 Noble Amos Runner (2/16) SemiSub 1982/1999 Cold stacked GoM
5 Noble Jim Day (1/16) SemiSub 1989/1999/2010 Cold Stacked GoM
6 Noble Dany Adkins (3/16) SemiSub 1989/1999/2009 Warm stacked GoM
7

Noble Sam Croft (5/16)

Drillship 2014 Warm stacked GoM
8 Noble Tom Madden (5/16) Drillship 2014 Warm Stacked GoM
9 Noble Dave Beard (4/16) Semi-sub 1986-2008 Cold stacked Singapore
10 Noble Tom Prosser (9/16) JU 2014 Available En route Middle East
Click to enlarge

Noble Fleet Snapshot

Total Drill-ships Semi-submersibles Jack-ups
Noble Corp. 20 6 1 13
Cold-stacked - Idle - Not contracted 10 2 7 1
Total 30 8 8 14
Click to enlarge

Backlog Detail:

Noble Corp.'s contract backlog totaled approximately ~$4.7 billion on October 20, 2016.

Click to enlarge

Commentary:

Noble Corp. released its October fleet status, and I noticed a few changes that deserve some comments:

  1. One 6-month contract awarded at a undisclosed rate for the jack-up Noble Houston Colbert with JX Nippon in Qatar. Additional backlog of approximately $15-$18 million (estimated by Fun Trading).
  2. The Drillship Noble Globetrotter II is now in Tanzania working for Shell.
  3. The Jack-up Noble Lloyd Noble is scheduled to commence her contract one month later and will end one month later.
  4. The Jack-up Noble Scott Marks: Anticipate +/-30 days of operational downtime at zero dayrate for maintenance/repairs in 1Q 2017.
  5. The Jack-up Noble Roger Lewis: Anticipate +/-15 days of operational downtime at zero dayrate for regulatory inspection in 1Q 2017.
  6. The Jack-up Noble Joe Beall: Anticipate +/-90 days of operational downtime at zero dayrate for regulatory inspection in 1Q 2017.
  7. The Jack-up Noble Gene House: Anticipate +/-30 days of operational downtime at zero dayrate for regulatory inspection in 3Q 2017
  8. The Jack-up Tom Prosser is now available after the termination and is in-transit to a location in Middle East.

A total of 165 days at 0 rate has been scheduled next year, which will knock out about $15 million in revenue.

Only one contract was awarded this time, and it proves that the market is still stubbornly unresponsive to the recent increase in oil prices we have experienced since the last OPEC meeting in Algiers.

Click to enlarge

The new range $51-$53 per barrel has been holding firm since early October, which is encouraging, but it is not nearly enough to trigger any definitive response from the IOC and NOC that could translate to contract, yet.

Click to enlarge

This is the major technical event for NE this month.

The dramatic fall in stock price since May has established a new support at $5-$5.15. The question is whether or not the stock will find enough catalysts to get enough thrust to defy gravity and reach higher ground?

The immediate test is the $7 resistance that should be breached, but it will be breached only if oil continues to indicate a price stability above $50 a barrel which is still uncertain. One or two midterm contracts in shallow, deepwater or ultra-deepwater would not hurt as well.
Conclusion:
NE is now a definitive buy between $5-$6 assuming oil price is solidly anchored in the $50-$55 range.

Disclosure: I am/we are long NE.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.