5 Dividend Kings With Great Long-Term Prospects

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 |  Includes: AFL, EV, KO, MCD, MSA
by: Tactical Investor

In this series, we aim to provide a range of key ratios and then pick one of the plays as our favorite. We will provide some reasons for our choice, and we hope to impart some knowledge to those who are new to the field of dividend investing. A lot of ratios will be used in this article, and it would be best for investors to get a handle on some of these ratios, as they could prove to be very useful in the selection process. Some of the more important key ratios are listed below. A significant portion of the historical data used in this article was obtained from zacks.com

Long-term debt-to-equity ratio is the total long-term debt divided by the total equity. The amount of long-term debt a company carries on its balances sheet is very important, for it indicates the amount of money a company owes that it doesn't expect to pay off in the next year. A balance sheet that illustrates that long-term debt has been decreasing for a few years is a sign that the company is doing well. When debt levels fall, and cash levels increase, the balance sheet is said to be improving and vice versa. If a company has too much debt on its books, it could end up being overwhelmed with interest payments and risk having too little working capital which could, in the worst case scenario, lead to bankruptcy.

Levered free cash flow is the amount of cash available to stockholders after interest payments on debt are made. A company with a small amount of debt will only have to spend a modest amount of money on interest payments, which in turn means that there is more money to send to shareholders in the form of dividends and vice versa.

The payout ratio tells us what portion of the profit is being returned to investors. A payout ratio over 100% indicates that the company is paying out more money to shareholders, then they are making; this situation cannot last forever. In general if the company has a high operating cash flow and access to capital markets, they can keep this going on for a while. As companies usually only pay the portion of the debt that is coming due and not the whole debt, this technique/trick can technically be employed to maintain the dividend for some time. If the payout ratio continues to increase, the situation warrants close monitoring, as this cannot last forever; if your tolerance for risk is a low, look for similar companies with the same or higher yields, but with lower payout ratios. Individuals searching for other ideas might find this article to be of interest: Is Potash Corp. Of Saskatchewan A Good Long-Term Dividned play

Interest coverage is usually calculated by dividing the earnings before interest and taxes for a period of 1 year by the interest expenses for the same time period. This ratio informs you of a company's ability to make its interest payments on its outstanding debt. Lower interest coverage ratios indicate that there is a larger debt burden on the company and vice versa. For example, if a company has an interest ratio of 11.8, this means that it covers interest expenses 11.8 times with operating profits.

Turnover Ratio lets you know the number of times a company's inventory is replaced in a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the cost of goods sold by average inventory during the time period studied. A high turnover ratio indicates that a company is producing and selling its goods and services very quickly.

Debt to Equity Ratio is found by dividing the company's total amount of long-term debt (debts with interest rates that have a maturity longer than one year) by the total amount of equity. A debt to equity ratio of 0.5 tells us that the company is using 50 cents of liabilities in addition to each $1 dollar of shareholders equity in the business. There is no fixed ideal number as it depends on the industry the company is in. However, in general, a ratio under 1 is acceptable, and ideally, it should be in the 0.5-0.6 ranges.

Current Ratio is obtained by dividing the current assets by current liabilities. This ratio allows you to see if the company can pay its current debts without potentially jeopardizing their future earnings. Ideally, the company should have a ratio of 1 or higher.

Price to sales ratio is calculated by dividing the company's share price by its revenue per share. Generally, the smaller the ratio (less than 1.0) the better the investment, since the investor is paying less for each unit of sales.

Quick ratio or acid-test is obtained by adding cash and cash equivalents plus marketable securities and accounts receivable andividing them by current liabilities. It is a measure of a company's ability to use its quick assets (assets that can be sold of immediately at close to book value) to pay off its current liabilities immediately. A company with a quick ratio of less than 1 cannot pay back its current liabilities. Additional key metrics are addressed in this article 5 Dividend Champs With Excellent Yields

We generally base our choice on the following factors

Net income= it should be generally trending upwards for the past 3-4 years.

Total cash flow from operating activities= it also should be trending upwards for the past 3-4 years. Payout ratio= it should generally be below 100%, but a ratio below 70% is optimal. Payout ratios are not that important when it comes to MLPS/REITS, as they generally pay a majority of their cash flow as distributions; in the case of REITS, by law, they have to pay out 90% of their cash flow as dividends. Payout ratios are calculated by dividing the dividend/distribution rate by the net income per share, and this is why the payout ratio for MLPs and REITS is often higher than 100%. The more important ratio to focus on is the cash flow per unit. If one focuses on the cash flow per unit, one will see that in most cases, it exceeds the distribution/dividend declared per unit/share.

Current ratio= should be above 1

Interest coverage ratio= any value above 1.5 is okay, but we would aim for 2.5-3.00 as our starting range. The higher the number the better

Dividend growth rate= it should be at 5% or higher. A high yield with a low dividend growth rate is not good in the long run, but neither is a low dividend yield with a high growth rate; one needs to find an equilibrium here.

Five year dividend average= we generally aim for stocks that have a yield of 4.5% or higher. There are exceptions to this rule. Some stocks appreciate very fast, so even though the yield might be low, one can more than make up the difference through capital gains. One example is Jarden (NYSE:JAH).

Sales= they should generally be trending upwards for the past 3-4 years.

Levered free cash flow= this is the icing on the cake; if a company meets most of the above requirements and also has a positive levered free cash flow; it can generally be viewed as a good long term buy. Two examples are Leggett&Platt (NYSE:LEG) and Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG).

An early warning signal that the company could be in trouble is when the total cash flow generated from operating expenses is not enough to meet the dividend payments. This information can be gleaned by looking at the cash flow statement; this is readily available at yahoofinance. In the example below, we used LEG, and the data was obtained from yahoo finance.

The cash flow in this case was more than enough to easily cover all the dividend payments for all the above years; in this, the time period was from 2008-2010.

Many traders use other metrics and that is fine; we are just trying to provide a guideline. As you get better handle of the ratios explained below, you can create your own list of criteria.

McDonalds Corp (NYSE:MCD) is our play of choice for the following reasons

Operating cash flow and sales have also been trending upwards for the past 3 years.

Its true dividend king; it has consecutively increased its dividend for over 35 years.

It has strong 5 year dividend growth rate of 22.2%

Very strong levered free cash flow of $3.08 billion

Net income has been trending upwards very nicely for the past 3 years. It surged from $4.5 billion in 2009 to $5.5 billion in 2011.

While the Yield is not the greatest, the capital gains have more than made up for this shortfall.

It has low payout ratio of 48%, and 5 year payout average that is only 49%

It has 5 year EPS historical growth of 16.2

A strong 5 year average ROE of 30.64%

A healthy ROI of 21.92%

A good debt/total cap 5 year average of 41.45%

A decent quick ratio of 1.46

An excellent ratio of 16.63

A total 3 year returns of 105%

A decent quarterly earnings growth rate of 10.8%

It sports a free cash flow yield of 4.33%

100K invested for 10 years would have grown to 427K

Company : McDonalds Corp

Levered Free Cash Flow = 3.80B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.35

Market Cap ($mil) = 102690

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 1

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 5503

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 4946

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 4551

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 11.26

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 10.81

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 8727

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 8176

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 1377

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 11.26

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 5.9

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 5.21

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 22.2

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 27006

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 24075

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 22745

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.79

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 2.91

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.87

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 2.53

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 2.26

Forward Yield = 2.79

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 22.2

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.87

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.87

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.48

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.49

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 0.49

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.48

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.48

Change in Payout Ratio = 0.04

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 28.7

Std Dev Target Price Est = 5.13

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 2.52

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 9.95

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 9.63

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 0.82

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -115.65

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = 16.2

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 16.8

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 30.64

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 29.67

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 28.72

Return on Investment 12/2011 = 21.92

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 21.13

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 20.52

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 41.45

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 41.14

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 40.66

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 0.87

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.02

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.18

Quick Ratio = 1.46

Cash Ratio = 1.05

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = 16.63

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 19.25

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 17.97

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 12.93

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 14.41

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 1.93

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.66

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.98

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.59

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 5.27

Price/ Book = 7.76

Price/ Cash Flow = 17.01

Price/ Sales = 3.8

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 12.75

P/E/G F1 = 1.82

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.02

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = 0.98

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.98

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 1.82

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.02

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.44

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 19

Company : Mine Safety App (NYSE:MSA)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 91.36M

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 17.3

Market Cap ($mil) = 1378

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 70

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 38

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 43

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 83.32

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 44.28

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 152

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 95

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 100

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 17

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 83.33

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 3.06

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 2.29

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 1.97

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 4.95

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 1179

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 983

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 916

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.76

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 3.08

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 3.02

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.03

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 0.99

Forward Yield = 2.76

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 4.95

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.71

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.72

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.5

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.57

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 0.58

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.57

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.57

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.09

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 1.05

Std Dev Target Price Est = 1.29

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 14.22

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 10.64

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 12.35

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 4.74

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -110.2

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = -2.52

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = -4.46

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 13.91

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 13.91

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 14.03

Return on Investment 12/2011 = 9.31

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 8.92

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 8.75

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 24.31

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 23.18

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 21.56

Current Ratio 12/2011 = 2.67

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 2.71

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 2.78

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 2.44

Quick Ratio = 1.85

Cash Ratio = 0.65

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = 7.67

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 10.52

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 8.75

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = 11.9

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 12.87

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 13.23

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 1.86

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 1.98

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 1.21

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 1.49

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 2.13

Price/ Book = 3.16

Price/ Cash Flow = 12.29

Price/ Sales = 1.17

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 10.91

P/E/G F1 = 1.32

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.07

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = 0.05

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.16

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 1.32

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.04

Median Est Next Qtr = 0.59

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 5

Company : Eaton Vance (NYSE:EV)

Free Cash Flow = $160 million.

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = N/A

Market Cap ($mil) = 3315

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 215

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 174

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 130

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 35.66

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 25.94

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 476

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 421

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 298

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 47

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 23.3

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 2.32

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 1.99

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 1.63

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 8.58

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 1260

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 1122

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 890

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.64

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 2.12

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.03

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 0.73

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 0.66

Forward Yield = 2.64

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 8.58

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.84

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.8

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.42

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 0.44

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.43

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = N/A

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.02

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = -10.8

Std Dev Target Price Est = 2.76

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = -0.27

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 13.44

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 10.5

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 2.12

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -133.33

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = 0.91

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 57.46

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 56.99

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 12/2011 = 13.46

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 15.05

Return on Investment 06/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 56.77

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 53.35

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 12/2011 = 6.7

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 7.14

Current Ratio 06/2011 = N/A

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 3.76

Quick Ratio = 6.7

Cash Ratio = 6.08

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = 10.84

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 14.33

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = N/A

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = 3.95

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 4.14

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = N/A

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 1.06

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 1.69

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 1.11

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 1.4

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 1.75

Price/ Book = 6.94

Price/ Cash Flow = 12.4

Price/ Sales = 2.67

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 5.26

P/E/G F1 = 1.45

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.04

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = 0.01

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = N/A

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 1.45

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.02

Median Est Next Qtr = 0.48

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 10

Company : Aflac Inc (NYSE:AFL)

Free Cash Flow = $9 billion.

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 4.4

Market Cap ($mil) = 21799

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 1964

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 2344

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 1497

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = -16.17

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 24.94

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 3734

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 2307

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 546

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = -16.21

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 5.55

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 4.87

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 10.71

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 22171

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 20732

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 18254

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.83

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 2.33

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.25

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.23

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.14

Forward Yield = 2.83

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 10.71

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.88

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.85

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.19

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.2

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 0.24

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.24

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.24

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.03

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = -23

Std Dev Target Price Est = 8.85

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 2.58

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 6.47

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 10.5

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 2.12

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -111.28

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = 18.46

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 18.7

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 25.22

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 24.93

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 24.6

Return on Investment 12/2011 = 20.3

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 20.83

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 19.66

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 14.01

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 13.03

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 13.03

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 0.57

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 0.03

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 0.17

Quick Ratio = 0.04

Cash Ratio = 0.02

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 22.25

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 10.85

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = 28.93

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 27.22

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 25.62

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 3.27

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.99

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.85

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 5.53

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 6.33

Price/ Book = 1.61

Price/ Cash Flow = 8.41

Price/ Sales = 0.98

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 6.22

P/E/G F1 = 0.67

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.02

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = 0.99

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 1

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 0.67

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.03

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.67

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 16

Company : Coca Cola Co (NYSE:KO)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 4.95B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 5.49

Market Cap ($mil) = 156329

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 1

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 8572

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 11809

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 6824

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = -27.41

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = -71.34

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 13810

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 16419

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 10537

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 1654

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = -27.41

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 4.79

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 4.13

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 3.61

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 7.94

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 46542

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 35119

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 30990

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.73

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 2.91

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.9

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.88

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.76

Forward Yield = 2.96

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 7.94

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.95

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.95

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.5

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.51

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 0.52

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.52

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.52

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.03

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 4.5

Std Dev Target Price Est = 6.22

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 1.07

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 10.32

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 8

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = N/A

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -109.72

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = 8.84

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 9.12

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 30.76

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 31.04

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 31.31

Return on Investment 12/2011 = 19.34

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 19.07

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 20.11

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = 16.91

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 15.77

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 14.64

Current Ratio 12/2011 = 1.05

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 1.1

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.1

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.08

Quick Ratio = 0.92

Cash Ratio = 0.72

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = 22.26

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 26.2

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 46.17

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = 14.05

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 14.59

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 15.47

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.7

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.15

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.06

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 3.49

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 3.84

Price/ Book = 4.9

Price/ Cash Flow = 14.36

Price/ Sales = 3.36

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 11.29

P/E/G F1 = 2.11

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.03

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = 0.94

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.93

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 2.11

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.03

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.22

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 9

Conclusion

The markets are extremely overbought, and it would be in investor's best interests to wait for a strong pullback before deploying new money into this market. A pullback in the 7%-10% range would quantify as a strong pullback.

EPS charts obtained from zacks.com and free cash flow yield chart sourced from Ycharts.com.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This list of stocks is meant to serve as a starting point. Please do not treat this as a buying list. It is imperative that you do your due diligence and then determine if any of the above plays meet with your risk tolerance levels. The Latin maxim caveat emptor applies-let the buyer beware.