Do you like to search for stocks that you believe are trading below their fair price? For ideas on how to start your search, we ran a screen.
We began by screening the consumer goods sector for stocks rallying above their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. We then screened these names for those that appear undervalued to the Graham Number, which is a measure of a stock's maximum fair price.
The Graham Number was created by the "godfather of value investing" Benjamin Graham as a calculation for a stock's maximum fair value. It is based off of a stock's EPS and book value per share (BVPS).
Graham Number = SQRT(22.5 x TTM EPS x MRQ BVPS)
The equation assumes that P/E should not be higher than 15 and P/BV should not be higher than 1.5. Stocks trading well below their Graham Number may be undervalued.
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned below. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
We also created a price-weighted index of the stocks mentioned below, and monitored the performance of the list relative to the S&P 500 index over the last month. To access a complete analysis of this list's recent performance, click here.
Do you think these stocks should be trading at a higher price? Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.
1. Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM): Procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products in the United States and internationally. The stock is currently rallying 3.06% above its 20-day moving average, 6.62% above its 50-day MA, and 9.07% above its 200-day MA. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 2.27, and a MRQ book value per share value at 27.16, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*2.27*27.16) = $37.25. Based on the stock's price at $31.96, this implies a potential upside of 16.54% from current levels.
2. Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK): Provides packaging solutions in the United States, Canada, Central/South America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. The stock is currently rallying 2.96% above its 20-day moving average, 11.20% above its 50-day MA, and 16.73% above its 200-day MA. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 0.73, and a MRQ book value per share value at 3, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*0.73*3) = $7.02. Based on the stock's price at $5.39, this implies a potential upside of 30.23% from current levels.
3. KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation (KS): Engages in the production and sale of unbleached kraft, linerboard, saturating kraft, and unbleached folding carton boards primarily in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The stock is currently rallying 6.56% above its 20-day moving average, 13.65% above its 50-day MA, and 25.47% above its 200-day MA. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 2.61, and a MRQ book value per share value at 11.77, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*2.61*11.77) = $26.29. Based on the stock's price at $20.53, this implies a potential upside of 28.06% from current levels.
4. Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ): Produces and markets alcoholic beverages primarily in the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. The stock is currently rallying 0.53% above its 20-day moving average, 3.77% above its 50-day MA, and 7.29% above its 200-day MA. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 2.95, and a MRQ book value per share value at 13.21, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*2.95*13.21) = $29.61. Based on the stock's price at $21.57, this implies a potential upside of 37.28% from current levels.
5. Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP): Distributes beer brands. The stock is currently rallying 0.26% above its 20-day moving average, 0.97% above its 50-day MA, and 3.46% above its 200-day MA. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 3.63, and a MRQ book value per share value at 42.28, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*3.63*42.28) = $58.76. Based on the stock's price at $43.92, this implies a potential upside of 33.8% from current levels.
*BVPS and EPS data sourced from Yahoo Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
