Employers added a stronger-than-expected 132,000 new jobs in June and also boosted payrolls more strongly than previously thought in April and May, according to a Labor Department report that underlined a strengthening job market.
Just because economists have low expectations does not mean that higher numbers are a sign of strength. When I look at the year/year change in employment levels, not seasonally adjusted, the current growth rate of about 1.4% looks neither strong nor strengthening.
Classifying the report within my economic taxonomy, however, is tricky. 1.4% doesn’t look good so I am going with bad. But really looking at the last several months the trend is flat, while I offered space for only deteriorating or improving. Since the June growth was (slightly) worse than May’s, I am going with deteriorating. This decision is also due to the fact that more than 100% of the reported change in employment is due to assumptions (the Birth/Death Model) rather than reported data.
|Bad and Deteriorating||Bad but Improving||Good but Deteriorating||Good and Improving|
|Existing Homes (May)||Chicago Fed NAI (May)||Consumer Confidence (June)||Real Disposable Income|
|Store sales (June 30)||Durable Goods (May)||Personal Spending||ISM Manufacturing (June)|
|New Home Sales (May)||Construction Spending||ISM Services (June)|
|ATA Truck Tonnage (May)|
|GDP (Q1 Final)|