If XLF is the leading market indicator as it was in the October 2007 highs, then our markets are headed lower again:
- When the market rallied from a July 23,2002 low to an October 11,2007 high, the Standard & Poor 500 index (ETF: SPY) advanced 94%, while the Financial Sector [ETF: XLF] gained 101%.
- From the October 11, 2007 peak, 9 months later on July 7,2008, SPY declined 18% and XLF fell 44%.
- From the October 11, 2007 peak to the decade low set on March 5, 2009, SPY declined 56% and XLF was down 81%.
- Since the March 5, 2009 lows, SPY closed Friday (February 24, 2012) at a high of 136.93, up 99%. XLF in this same time frame is up 146%.
- In the last 52 weeks, SPY is up 3.48%, while XLF is down 11%.
See chart below:
Return | Return | Return | Return | Return | |||||||
ETF | %of SPY | 7/23/02 | 10/11/07 | vs 7/23/02 | 7/7/08 | vs 7/23/02 | 3/5/09 | vs.10/11/07 | 02/24/12 | vs3/5/09 | 52 Week |
79.95 | 155.47 | 94% | 127.24 | -18% | 68.80 | -56% | 136.93 | 99% | 3.48% | ||
87.08* | 76.33 | -12% | 81.43 | -6% | 94.26 | 24% | 117.50 | 24% | 27% | ||
14.15% | 15.93 | 32.06 | 101% | 17.96 | -44% | 5.96 | -81% | 14.67 | 146% | -11% | |
12.26% | 17.33 | 71.99 | 315% | 78.57 | 9% | 36.54 | -49% | 76.23 | 108% | -0.70% | |
3.61% | 15.19 | 38.99 | 156% | 36.58 | -6% | 16.86 | -56% | 37.55 | 122% | -2.39% | |
3.45% | 12.14 | 35.22 | 190% | 34.77 | -1% | 20.62 | -41% | 35.08 | 70% | 11.09% | |
10.15% | 15.67 | 25.40 | 62% | 24.66 | -3% | 18.11 | -28% | 33.06 | 82% | 12.38% | |
11.34% | 19.18 | 33.47 | 74% | 28.50 | -15% | 20.76 | -38% | 33.19 | 60% | 12.64% | |
10.85% | 16.71 | 37.83 | 126% | 31.11 | -18% | 14.69 | -61% | 37.48 | 155% | 2.63% | |
10.78% | 19.87 | 35.36 | 78% | 26.37 | -25% | 15.57 | -56% | 42.86 | 175% | 10.75% | |
22.80% | 12.10 | 25.99 | 114% | 21.57 | -17% | 13.01 | -50% | 28.82 | 121% | 10.22% | |
7.40 | 9.14 | 9.21 | 24% | 17.28 | 88% | 5.43% | |||||
*8/26/02 |
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
