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Turn those machines back on!

Wow, what a week that was - maybe we can do the whole thing again. While Don Ameche is an irate loser in this clip (and the full clip here is my all-time favorite), we winners can identify with the desire to keep those markets open, especially when they are in blow-out bull mode like they were at the end of this week.

Trading Places

While we are, of course, thrilled, let’s take a moment to remember that this is, in fact, a zero sum game and our great fortune was someone else’s misfortune. In this case, it seems to be hedge funds, which were reported on Wednesday to be $45B on the short side of the S&P, the highest short level since the index started measuring it in 1995. Short interest was low on the Russell and that index finished flat for the week…

Dr. Brett Steenbarger has several concerns about the market that should be taken seriously:

• Weighted stocks are leading the rally.
- Mega-Cap stocks benefit from a weak dollar and strong overseas sales and also exert undue influence on the broader markets.
• Small caps are lagging.
- I mentioned the Russell, but NYSE TICK readings were less than sexy with advancers outpacing decliners by just 179 (.15%). The A/D line on the Nasdaq was -217 (-.62%). We discussed the poor general participation in the Nasdaq earlier in the month.
• Uneven sector participation.
- It’s my least favorite kind of rally with inflation causing Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and Materials SPDR (XLB) leading the way while consumer sectors Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR (XLP), Health Care SPDR (XLV) and even the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) fall behind.
• New highs are tapering off.

Dr. Brett is also seeing a divergence in the money flows going into the Dow, but I could be persuaded to look at that as some rational profit taking with 8 of 30 industrials posting new highs on Friday.

Happy and I can see the Dow making a run at 14,200 with a nominal peak at about 14,350 if we get continued strength in the week ahead. On the whole, though, a failure to consolidate between 13,500 and 13,600 only increases the chances for a painful correction (13,500?) ahead. That’s going to put the Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (DIA) September $142s in play at $2.10 as a fun momentum play IF the market flies on Monday as we can sell the July calls into the rally against them, while it also make a nice hedge against our mattress plays as well as making a nice pre-roll for our August calls. As it runs up we will, of course, tighten up on the short side.

We closed 86 positions with a 48% average gain this week as I struggled to keep our swelling Short-Term Portfolio at 60% cash. There are worst problems to have than your runaway positions dwarfing your cash balance, but it was the purge to cash we did last month that left us in such a good position to take advantage of this rally. Had we held on to older contracts, we may have done well, but this was much less stressful and they let us take advantage of some new leaps before they got away from us. Think about it as planning for the future! Our 86 remaining open positions have a 64% average gain and the portfolio is now up 228% for the year - by far our best performance ever.

We still have a pretty large downside oil bet that has, so far, been our primary cause of pain. However, they balance out 34 naked calls, 8 of which are commodity plays.

Our Long-Term Portfolio held up well despite a lot of our callers heading into the money. 37 open positions have a 372% average gain (due to very low basis on many positions) but the more reliable gain for the year is 139% with the portfolio just under 60% cash. All that goes out the window in the next two weeks as we get ready to roll many of our ‘08 leaps over to ‘09 and ‘10.

The $10,000 Portfolio remains the black sheep of the family with a 30% loss to date. I called for an additional short on Foster Wheeler Ltd. (FWLT) on Friday as a chancy way to get a little back, so we hope the Gods are kind to us over the weekend and cast FWLT back into the pit from whence it came. This over-hyped Cramer darling now has a p/e of 24 after riding a three-month pump-a-thon up from $54 on March 12th. Their reaction to Baker Hughes Incorporated's (BHI) severe profit warning was exactly the opposite of what you would expect from rational people, but normal for a momo stock gone wild. While revenues have been up, they will have a hard time beating the $1.33 the street is looking for. We can attribute last weeks $9 run to the company joining the Nasdaq 100, a move that did not surprise experienced traders - hence the very heavy selling into the all-time high. Anyway, that’s our make or break position next week, so wish us luck.

Black Sheep Brewery

Our boring old Stock Portfoilo has just eight positions that are up an average of 7% with a portfolio gain of 36% for the year. My goal here is to hit 50% for the year as we have taken very few chances with it and played as conservatively as I can.

The Complex Spreads Portfolio has been active as it holds most of our Google (GOOG) and all of our Apple (AAPL) positions. However, we went back to a much more conservative cover mix as we near earnings. Thirty-four open positions there have an average gain of just 8%, but the portfolio, which was started on 5/1, is already up 79%, so I’m very pleased. We literally owe it all to Apple and Google, though [and Crocs (CROX) on that big pop].



Description

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

10 JUL 17.00 $VIX CALL [VIXGR]  $      560 6/27  $    1,190 7/10  $        630 113%
10 OCT 115.00 AAPL CALL [QAAJC]  $    7,690 5/17  $  21,590 7/9  $   13,900 181%
5 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL [APVHH]  $    2,385 7/12  $    3,240 7/13  $        855 36%
15 AUG 85.00 BHI PUT [BHITQ]  $    2,485 7/12  $    4,790 7/13  $     2,305 93%
30 JUL 85.00 BHI PUT [BHISQ]  $      910 7/12  $    5,240 7/13  $     4,330 476%
40 JUL 85.00 BHI PUT [BHISQ]  $    1,210 7/12  $    7,990 7/13  $     6,780 560%
15 AUG 85.00 BHI PUT [BHITQ]  $    2,485 7/12  $    5,390 7/13  $     2,905 117%
10 JUL 80.00 CAT CALL [CATGP]  $    5,610 6/7  $    2,440 7/13  $    [3,170] -57%
10 JAN 75.00 CAT CALL [VKTAO]  $        60 11/6  $  19,290 7/14  $   19,230 32050%
10 JUL 50.00 CCJ CALL [CCJGJ]  $    1,910 7/6  $    1,840 7/9  $        [70] -4%
5 OCT 75.00 CHAP CALL [ZHQJO]  $    2,710 7/5  $    4,990 7/11  $     2,280 84%
5 OCT 75.00 CHAP CALL [ZHQJO]  $    2,710 7/5  $    4,890 7/11  $     2,180 80%
5 AUG 75.00 CHAP CALL [ZHQHO]  $    4,410 7/5  $    1,990 7/11  $    [2,420] -55%
10 JUL 120.00 CMI CALL [CDMGD]  $    2,010 7/9  $    3,240 7/13  $     1,230 61%
10 JUL 80.00 COF CALL [COFGP]  $      260 5/18  $       590 7/11  $        330 127%
10 JUL 80.00 COF CALL [COFGP]  $      510 6/7  $       420 7/11  $        [90] -18%
40 JUL 85.00 COP PUT [COPSQ]  $    4,610 7/11  $    2,790 7/12  $    [1,820] -40%
50 JUL 90.00 CVX PUT [CVXSR]  $    5,510 7/10  $    6,990 7/11  $     1,480 27%
25 JUL 90.00 CVX PUT [CVXSR]  $    2,260 7/11  $    1,240 7/12  $    [1,020] -45%
100 AUG 136.00 DIA PUT [DAZTF]  $  25,010 7/3  $  20,990 7/9  $    [4,020] -16%
50 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT [DAZTG]  $  12,410 7/6  $  16,240 7/10  $     3,830 31%
50 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT [DAZTG]   $  12,410 7/6  $  15,490 7/11  $     3,080 25%
150 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL [DAZHH]   $      760 6/8  $  29,240 7/12  $   28,480 3747%
50 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT [DAZTG]   $  12,410 7/6  $  11,490 7/12  $       [920] -7%
150 AUG 135.00 DIA PUT [DAWTE]  $  28,510 7/10  $  23,990 7/12  $    [4,520] -16%
200 JUL 135.00 DIA PUT [DAWSE]  $    9,010 7/2  $  31,990 7/12  $   22,980 255%
75 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL [DAZHH]    $      385 6/8  $  23,990 7/13  $   23,605 6131%
60 JUL 75.00 DNA CALL [DWNGO]  $    3,010 7/11  $    5,990 7/12  $     2,980 99%
50 AUG 7.50 DNDN CALL [UKOHU]   $    3,760 7/3  $    5,490 7/10  $     1,730 46%
50 AUG 7.50 DNDN CALL [UKOHU]   $    3,760 7/3  $    4,990 7/10  $     1,230 33%
50 JUL 7.50 DNDN CALL [UKOGU]  $    2,010 7/3  $    2,990 7/10  $        980 49%
10 JUL 75.00 EOG PUT [EOGSO]  $    1,710 7/12  $    2,090 7/12  $        380 22%
10 AUG 50.00 FAF PUT [FAFTJ]  $    1,160 7/9  $    1,590 7/13  $        430 37%
10 JUL 120.00 FWLT CALL [UFBGD]  $    2,760 7/13  $    4,040 7/13  $     1,280 46%
50 SEP 37.50 GE CALL [GEIS]  $    5,760 5/18  $    6,490 7/12  $        730 13%
10 SEP 550.00 GOOG CALL [GOPIY]  $  14,010 6/20  $  27,490 7/9  $   13,480 96%
5 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL [GOPGX]  $    6,885 7/10  $    7,050 7/12  $        165 2%
10 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL [GOPGX]  $  14,510 7/12  $  19,490 7/13  $     4,980 34%
5 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL [GOPGX]  $    9,260 7/10  $    7,040 7/13  $    [2,220] -24%
4 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL [GOPGX]  $    7,330 7/5  $    5,590 7/13  $    [1,740] -24%
40 JUL 32.50 HAS CALL [HASGZ]  $    2,210 7/3  $    3,190 7/9  $        980 44%
15 JUL 45.00 HPQ CALL [HPQGI]  $    1,735 7/9  $    1,415 7/12  $       [320] -18%
2 JAN 110.00 IBM CALL [VIBAB]  $    1,550 4/30  $    2,600 7/9  $     1,050 68%
10 JUL 150.00 ICE PUT [IHHSJ]  $    2,630 7/6  $    2,490 7/9  $       [140] -5%
40 JUL 25.00 INTC CALL [INQGE]  $    2,010 6/15  $    1,990 7/12  $        [20] -1%
50 JUL 25.00 INTC CALL [INQGE]  $    2,910 7/6  $    2,740 7/12  $       [170] -6%
20 JUL 155.00 MA PUT [MALSK]  $    3,510 7/10  $    5,190 7/10  $     1,680 48%
100 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL [MSQGK]  $    4,210 7/10  $    4,190 7/12  $        [20] -1%
10 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL [MSQGK]  $      430 6/21  $       790 7/12  $        360 84%
10 AUG 140.00 NMX CALL [NMXHH]  $    3,210 7/6  $    3,990 7/9  $        780 24%
25 JUL 45.00 NVDA CALL [UVAGI]  $    1,510 7/9  $    4,240 7/12  $     2,730 181%
4 JUL 75.00 NYX CALL [NYXGO]  $    1,250 6/26  $       950 7/10  $       [300] -24%
8 JUL 80.00 NYX CALL [NYXGP]  $    1,450 7/10  $    1,190 7/11  $       [260] -18%
30 JUL 180.00 OIH PUT [ODLSP]  $    9,160 7/3  $    9,140 7/9  $        [20] 0%
10 JUL 180.00 OIH CALL [ODLGP]  $    2,910 7/6  $    3,840 7/10  $        930 32%
30 JUL 180.00 OIH PUT [ODLSP]  $    9,160 7/3  $  10,190 7/10  $     1,030 11%
20 AUG 60.00 PG CALL [PGHL]  $    5,010 6/21  $    5,690 7/12  $        680 14%
200 JUL 49.00 QQQQ PUT [QQQSW]  $  15,410 7/5  $  12,190 7/9  $    [3,220] -21%
1000 AUG 49.00 QQQQ CALL [QQQHW]  $112,010 7/13  $162,990 7/13  $   50,980 46%
100 AUG 49.00 QQQQ CALL [QQQHW]  $  11,010 7/12  $  16,190 7/13  $     5,180 47%
40 AUG 49.00 QQQQ CALL [QQQHW]  $    4,490 7/12  $    6,390 7/13  $     1,900 42%
20 JUL 110.00 RIG PUT [RIGSB]  $    3,610 7/12  $    4,390 7/13  $        780 22%
9 JAN 7.50 SCI CALL [YTYAU]   $    1,945 11/15  $    4,670 7/9  $     2,725 140%
20 JUL 175.00 SHLD CALL [KDUGO]  $      410 7/6  $    5,490 7/10  $     5,080 1239%
15 JUL 95.00 SU PUT [SUSS]  $    5,110 5/17  $    6,290 7/11  $     1,180 23%
20 JUL 90.00 SU PUT [SUSR]  $    1,810 7/11  $       990 7/12  $       [820] -45%
10 JUL 12.50 TASR CALL [QURGV]  $    1,760 6/20  $       750 7/9  $    [1,010] -57%
40 JAN 10.00 TASR CALL [LXFAB]  $    4,450 5/7  $  26,790 7/9  $   22,340 502%
30 AUG 12.50 TASR CALL [QURHV]  $    6,760 6/4  $       590 7/9  $    [6,170] -91%
30 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT [TSOSL]  $    3,460 7/10  $    4,790 7/11  $     1,330 38%
20 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT [TSOSL]  $    2,510 7/11  $    3,990 7/12  $     1,480 59%
20 JUL 50.00 UNH CALL [UHBGJ]  $    4,210 6/7  $    7,590 7/12  $     3,380 80%
10 JUL 50.00 UNH CALL [UHBGJ]  $    2,110 6/20  $    2,890 7/12  $        780 37%
40 JUL 75.00 VLO CALL [ZPYGO]  $    8,010 7/9  $  11,390 7/9  $     3,380 42%
80 JUL 75.00 VLO PUT [ZPYSO]  $    4,650 7/9  $    5,190 7/10  $        540 12%
25 JUL 20.00 VOLV CALL [VQYGD]  $    2,760 7/10  $    4,240 7/11  $     1,480 54%
5 JUL 95.00 WYNN CALL [UWYGS]  $      885 7/11  $       740 7/12  $       [145] -16%
5 SEP 100.00 WYNN CALL [UWYIT]  $        35 5/15  $    2,690 7/13  $     2,655 7586%
10 AUG 115.00 X CALL [XHC]  $    4,810 7/9  $    6,490 7/13  $     1,680 35%
100 JUL 72.00 XLE CALL [XBTGT]  $    9,510 7/9  $  12,990 7/9  $     3,480 37%
60 JUL 71.00 XLE PUT [XBTSS]  $    4,270 7/5  $    4,490 7/10  $        220 5%
50 AUG 72.00 XLE CALL [XBTHT]  $  10,510 7/9  $  16,490 7/13  $     5,980 57%
10 AUG 72.00 XLE CALL [XBTHT]  $    2,110 7/9  $    3,390 7/13  $     1,280 61%
100 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT [XOMSQ]  $    5,710 7/6  $    5,490 7/9  $       [220] -4%
100 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT [XOMSQ]  $    5,710 7/6  $    5,990 7/10  $        280 5%
250 AUG 90.00 XOM CALL [XOMHR]  $  27,510 7/9  $  48,740 7/12  $   21,230 77%
Source: Options Trader: Weekly Wrapup