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Reasons to be bullish On Bayer A G -Adr (OTCPK:BAYRY)

  • A very strong levered free cash flow of $5.632 billion
  • Very strong quarterly earnings growth of 125%
  • Cash flow per share has been increasing for the past few years.
  • Sales have jumped from $4.4 billion in 2009 to $4.9 billion in 2011.
  • It has a very low payout ratio of 27%
  • A 3-5 year estimated EPS growth rate of 8%
  • A good debt/total cap of 0.24
  • A decent current ratio of 1.5
  • A quick ratio of 1.13
  • It recorded a 2% growth in revenues

Bayer's Earnings per share in the 4th quarter came in 2 cents higher than a year ago; $1.31 Vs $1.29. Earnings were bossed by higher revenues.

In 2011 Bayer earned approximately $6.50 compared to approximately $5.56 in 2010. The healthcare, material sciences and crop science segments accounted for 47%, 30% and 20% respectively of the total revenue.

Management expects sales of $37 billion in 2012. Earnings are expected to show an improvement over 2011 levels.

The approval of the blood thinner Xarelto for sale in the U.S. in Nov 2011 was a huge win for Bayer as this market is highly lucrative and should lead to a boost in revenues.

Bayer is starting to place more emphasis on the emerging market; sales from emerging markets increased by 10% in the first nine months of 2011.

100K invested for 10 years would have grown to $245K.

This article will cover a lot of key ratios and investors would be best served if they got a handle some of the more important ones. A significant portion of the historical data was obtained from zacks.com

Free cash flow yield is obtained by dividing free cash flow per share by the current price of each share. Generally lower ratios are associated with an unattractive investment and vice versa. Free cash flow takes into account capital expenditures and other ongoing costs associated with the day to day to functions of the business. In our view free cash flow yield is a better valuation metric then earnings yield because of the above factor

Levered free cash flow is the amount of cash available to stock holders after interest payments on debt are made. A company with a small amount of debt will only have to spend a modest amount of money on interest payments, which in turn means that there is more money to send to shareholders in the form of dividends and vice versa.

Operating cash flow is generally a better metric than earnings per share because a company can show positive net earnings and still not be able to properly service its debt; the cash flow is what pays the bills.

The payout ratio tells us what portion of the profit is being returned to investors. A pay out ratio over 100% indicates that the company is paying out more money to shareholders, then they are making; this situation cannot last forever. In general if the company has a high operating cash flow and access to capital markets, they can keep this going on for a while. As companies usually only pay the portion of the debt that is coming due and not the whole debt, this technique/trick can technically be employed to maintain the dividend for sometime. If the payout ratio continues to increase, the situation warrants close monitoring as this cannot last forever; if your tolerance for risk is a low, look for similar companies with the same or higher yields, but with lower payout ratios.

Debt to Equity Ratio is found by dividing the company's total amount of long-term debt (debts with interest rates that have a maturity longer than one year) by the total amount of equity. A debt to equity ratio of 0.5 tells us that the company is using 50 cents of liabilities in addition to each $1 dollar of shareholders equity in the business. There is no fixed ideal number as it depends on the industry the company is in. However, in general a ratio under 1 is acceptable and ideally it should be in the 0.5-0.6 ranges.

Current Ratio is obtained by dividing the current assets by current liabilities. This ratio allows you to see if the company can pay its current debts without potentially jeopardising their future earnings. Ideally the company should have a ratio of 1 or higher.

Price to cash flow ratio is obtained by dividing the share price by cash flow per share. It is a measure of the market's expectations of a company's future financial health. The effects of depreciation and other non cash factors are removed, and this makes it easier for investors to assess foreign companies in the same industry. This ratio also provides a measure of relative value like the price to earnings ratio.

Price to free cash flow is obtained by dividing the share price by free cash flow per share. Higher ratios are associated with more expensive companies and vice versa; lower ratios are generally more attractive. If a company generated 400 million in cash flow and then spent 100 million on capital expenditure, then its free flow is $300 million. If the share price is 100 and the free cash flow per share are $5, then company trades at 20 times-free cash flow. This ratio is also useful because it can be used as a comparison to the average within the industry; this gives you an idea of how the company you are interested in holds up to the other companies within the industry.

Interest coverage is usually calculated by dividing the earnings before interest and taxes for a period of 1 year by the interest expenses for the same time period. This ratio informs you of a company's ability to make its interest payments on its outstanding debt. Lower interest coverage ratios indicate that there is a larger debt burden on the company and vice versa. For example if a company has an interest ratio of 11.8, this means that it covers interest expenses 11.8 times with operating profits.

Price to tangible book is obtained by dividing share price by tangible book value per share. The ratio gives investors some idea of whether they are paying too much for what would be left over if the company were to declare bankruptcy immediately. In general stocks that trade at higher price to tangible book value could leave investors facing a great percentage per share loss than those that trade at lower ratios. The price to tangible book value is theoretically the lowest possible price the stock would trade to

Quick ratio or acid -test is obtained by adding cash and cash equivalents plus marketable securities and accounts receivable dividing them by current liabilities. It is a measure of a company's ability to use its quick assets (assets that can be sold of immediately at close to book value) to pay off its current liabilities immediately. A company with a quick ratio of less than 1 cannot pay back its current liabilities.

Company: Bayer A G -Adr

Levered Free Cash Flow = 5.62B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = N/A

Market Cap ($mil) = 62195

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 1740

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 1896

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 97.8

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 367.93

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 7008

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 6527

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 534

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = -8.24

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 11.48

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 9.78

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 49145

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 48240

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 44671

Dividend history

Div Yield = 2.14

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.03

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.61

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.34

Forward Yield = 2.14

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.37

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.27

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.36

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.36

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.09

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = -9.29

Std Dev Target Price Est = 23.92

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 8.09

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 9.47

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 7.97

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = N/A

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -100

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = N/A

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 14.21

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 14.25

Return on Investment 12/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 09/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 17.22

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.24

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.26

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.5

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.55

Quick Ratio = 1.13

Cash Ratio = 0.39

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = N/A

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 32.55

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 5.21

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.26

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 5.22

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 5.76

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 6.5

Price/ Book = 2.32

Price/ Cash Flow = 6.74

Price/ Sales = 1.22

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 8.64

P/E/G F1 = 1.42

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = N/A

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 1.42

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = N/A

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.41

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 1

Related companies (Peer group analysis)

Company : Lilly Eli & Co (NYSE:LLY)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 5.07B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.12

Market Cap ($mil) = 45662

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 2

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 4348

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 5070

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 4329

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = -14.24

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = -26.62

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 7853

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 6656

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 858

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = -14.24

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 5.7

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 5.35

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 24287

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 23076

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 21836

Dividend history

Div Yield = 4.98

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 4.79

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.96

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.96

Forward Yield = 4.98

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.67

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.44

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.42

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.46

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.46

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.01

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 10.83

Std Dev Target Price Est = 2.85

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 3.14

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 13.21

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = -6.33

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 3.51

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = 121.62

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = N/A

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 8.19

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 40.38

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 40.13

Return on Investment 12/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 24.96

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 26.49

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 32.77

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 32.33

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.77

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 2.02

Quick Ratio = 1.74

Cash Ratio = 1.15

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 66.61

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 13.01

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 3.54

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 4.02

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.42

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.74

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 4.41

Price/ Book = 3.37

Price/ Cash Flow = 7.25

Price/ Sales = 1.88

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 5.65

P/E/G F1 = -1.96

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.1

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.85

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = -1.96

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.08

Median Est Next Qtr = 0.72

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 12

Company : Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE:SNY)

Levered Free Cash Flow = N/A

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 1

Market Cap ($mil) = 99846

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 8265

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 7597

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 7937

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 13.26

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 216.95

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = N/A

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 14246

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 15448

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 1887

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 8.78

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 6.16

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 7.39

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 7.07

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 45972

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 41395

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 40201

Dividend history

Div Yield = 3.59

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 3.25

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.37

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.1

Forward Yield = 7.5

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.49

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.34

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.34

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.27

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.26

Change in Payout Ratio = 0.07

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 1.89

Std Dev Target Price Est = 3.73

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = -10.72

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 4.13

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 1.57

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 0.51

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -106.25

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = N/A

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 2.13

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 16.34

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 16.41

Return on Investment 12/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 11.26

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 11.99

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 9.89

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 11.17

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 06/2011 = N/A

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.72

Quick Ratio = 1.49

Cash Ratio = 0.84

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = N/A

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = N/A

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 3.64

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.98

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.45

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.81

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 4.36

Price/ Book = 1.27

Price/ Cash Flow = 6.18

Price/ Sales = 2.11

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = N/A

P/E/G F1 = 6.29

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.06

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.06

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 6.29

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.06

Median Est Next Qtr = 0.92

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 3

Company : Novartis Ag-Adr (NYSE:NVS)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 11.52B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.01

Market Cap ($mil) = 131333

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = N/A

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 9245

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 9969

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 8454

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = -8.59

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = -48.12

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 17505

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 12394

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 10473

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 1175

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = -7.26

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 7.96

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 5.25

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 3.72

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 58566

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 50624

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 44267

Dividend history

Div Yield = 3.83

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 2.76

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 2.01

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.65

Forward Yield = 3.83

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.92

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.36

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.37

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.34

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.33

Change in Payout Ratio = 0.02

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = -7.54

Std Dev Target Price Est = 3.77

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 1.93

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 4.04

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 4.78

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 2.17

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -107.9

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = N/A

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 6.65

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 19.54

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 19.49

Return on Investment 12/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 16.59

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 16.15

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 10.96

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 10.19

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 1.04

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 0.99

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.41

Quick Ratio = 0.78

Cash Ratio = 0.34

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 8.25

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 15.69

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 27.26

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 27.35

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.81

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.59

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.7

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 5.13

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 5.57

Price/ Book = 1.99

Price/ Cash Flow = 6.82

Price/ Sales = 2.24

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 8

P/E/G F1 = 2.08

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.09

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.19

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 2.08

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.12

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.34

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 4

Company : Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 9.10B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.26

Market Cap ($mil) = 90128

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 4

3 Month % Chg Short Interest = n/a

Growth

Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 4728

Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 4626

Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 5746

12mo Net Incm this Q/ 12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 2.2

Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 12.35

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 8773

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 8890

EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 9803

Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 1619

Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 2.21

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 6.66

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 5.9

Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 5.1

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 38851

Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 35167

Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 30765

Dividend history

Div Yield = 3.35

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Div Yld 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 3.04

Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.88

Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.72

Forward Yield = 3.56

Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.96

Dividend sustainability

Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.41

Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.43

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 0.45

Payout Ratio 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 0.45

Change in Payout Ratio = -0.03

Performance

% Ch Price 52 Wks Rel to S&P 500 = 14.83

Std Dev Target Price Est = 7.07

Avg EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 0.89

EPS % Change F2/F1 = 6.79

Next 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 7.51

Std Dev 3-5 Yr Est EPS Gr rate = 1.78

EPS Gr Q(1)/Q(-3) = -111.54

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 12/2011 = N/A

5 Yr Hist EPS Gr 09/2011 = 13.98

ROE 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

ROE 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 28.31

ROE 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 28.15

Return on Investment 12/2011 = N/A

Return on Investment 09/2011 = 19.46

Return on Investment 06/2011 = 18.91

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 12/2011 = N/A

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 09/2011 = 34.06

Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Avg 06/2011 = 34.07

Current Ratio 12/2011 = N/A

Current Ratio 09/2011 = 1.54

Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.5

Curr Ratio 5 Yr Avg = 1.4

Quick Ratio = 1.32

Cash Ratio = 0.83

Interest Coverage 12/2011 = N/A

Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 48.7

Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 5.82

Valuation

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 12/2011 = N/A

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 09/2011 = 15.74

Book Value Qtr ($/sh) 06/2011 = 15.86

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.84

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.32

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.73

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.17

Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 4.67

Price/ Book = 3.64

Price/ Cash Flow = 8.61

Price/ Sales = 2.32

EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 10.72

P/E/G F1 = 1.52

Q1 Std Dev/ Consensus = 0.02

R-squared EPS Growth 12/2011 = N/A

R-squared EPS Growth 09/2011 = 0.99

P/E F1/ LT EPS Gr = 1.52

Std Dev Cons Current Qtr = 0.02

Median Est Next Qtr = 1.21

# Anlst in Cons Q3 = 16

Conclusion

As the markets are extremely overbought, investors should wait for a strong pullback before committing any fresh money to this market. Cycle analysis indicates that a top could take hold between the 5-9th of March.

EPS, EPS surprise, broker recommendations, free cash flow and price and consensus charts sourced from zacks.com. Earnings estimates and growth rate charts for BAYRY.PK sourced from dailyfinance.com.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This list of stocks is meant to serve as a starting point. Please do not treat this as a buying list. It is imperative that you do your due diligence and then determine if any of the above plays meet with your risk tolerance levels. The Latin maxim caveat emptor applies-let the buyer beware.