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Dow 15k 20 07 2007

Let's get ahead of things shall we? Soon, if not already, talking heads will be prognosticating 15,000 for the DJIA. Why not? That's only another 7% or so away.

It seems bears only get one day whenever bad news rears its ugly head. Mostly these have been subprime related. They savor the moment, thinking the contagion will spread rapidly. But they only get squeezed and stampeded by bulls the very next day.

We're just glad to go with the flow, despite whatever our emotions and intuition argue. That's technical analysis 101.

D Fry Market Outlook 20 07 2007_001

To the above chart I'd note that Monday, Tuesday and most of Wednesday the market experienced a reasonable amount of selling or distribution. No doubt short sellers were active. But, as soon as they were done they got squeezed again badly.

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How about something a little different? Here are a few other sectors that interest me.

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Bears definitely don't like the subprime fiasco, despite fears being brushed-off by bulls. But there are other worries too. [Aren't there always?]

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Also ignored is the rise in crude oil prices which either herald some dangers ahead geopolitically, or may just signify that long-term global demand is increasing a-la China et al.

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A trip around the world reflects global economic growth and mostly positive investment sentiment. The move higher has been characterized by shifting global market leadership; one period favoring Latin America, then Europe, Asia and the States.

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Okay, the Fryguy has bounced off the mat from sickbay. It's no fun having an intestinal bug.

Speaking of fun, DJIA 15,000? Well, I just want to be first with that. Will it get there someday? Probably. In my lifetime? Well...

Friday brings with it options expiration. This should create even more volatility, and perhaps some weird action.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Disclaimer: Among other positions the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY), Rydex S&P 500 Equal Weight (NYSEARCA:RSP), MidCap SPDRs ETF (NYSEARCA:MDY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM), NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares ETF (QQQQ), iShares Goldman Sachs Technology Index Fund (NYSEARCA:IGM), First Trust DJ Internet Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FDN), iShares Goldman Sachs Network Index Fund (NYSEARCA:IGN), PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductor (NYSEARCA:PSI), Rydex S&P Equal Weight Materials (NYSEARCA:RTM), PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:PUW), PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (NYSEARCA:PZD), PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 (NYSEARCA:PRF), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEARCA:UDN), United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:USO), PowerShares DB Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:DBE), PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA:DBC), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:EFA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:RSX), iPath MSCI India ETN (NYSEARCA:INP), iShares Trust FTSE-Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (NYSEARCA:FXI), iShares MSCI Hong Kong (NYSEARCA:EWH), iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:EWY), iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (NYSEARCA:EWA), iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWC), iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWJ) and Turkish Investment Fund Inc. (NYSE:TKF).